burgertime Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Burger, are you talking about the January 2013 ULL? The majority of NC and probably upstate SC were under WSWs for that one, IIRC, but most places never changed over from rain until the very end, aside from the Triad area (where we got a heavy wet snowfall at 33-34 degrees that evening with like 5:1 ratios). Yea it must of been that one. Totally different scenario though so it's probably just confusing anyone reading this thread who is ready to jump the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 ...and that 1" for Cary was a wet stretch. Just a lot of big flakes with not much on the ground. I think that's a .1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yea it must of been that one. Totally different scenario though so it's probably just confusing anyone reading this thread who is ready to jump the cliff. I think we have a colder airmass to work with here. I recall it getting up to about 50 the next day and zapping most of the snow away. I don't think temps ever fell below freezing and possibly rose into the mid or upper 30s overnight after the snow ended around midnight. I remember having basically flooding rains for the entire day beforehand, too. Pretty sure soil temps were awful and all that jazz, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The trends at 850 have been not the greatest today. Its a close call for atl proper. The north side and north look fine, but that 0c line has been trending north on EVERY model today. The trends at 850 have been not the greatest today. Its a close call for atl proper. The north side and north look fine, but that 0c line has been trending north on EVERY model today. With the exception of the NAM the 850 low appears weak or open enough to me that strong precip rates can overcome its track, the 0C line is close but the other thing I noticed is there is massive room for evaporative cooling in the 800-900-mb layer...the big difference between the NAM and GFS is the NAM has screaming SW flow and WAA from 800-850mb over Ga, the GFS and most other guidance does not, its all 700-780mb where its easily cold enough to stay below 0C. If the NAM is wrong on that 800-850 idea there will be massive busts in south Atlanta. The new GFS cannot be trusted thermally in the 1000-850 layer, its got serious issues being too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 WSW from GSP Interesting... they changed accumulations from 3-5" (from this morning) to 3-7". .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS OF COURSE FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE IMPENDING WINTER EVENT WHICH BEGINS WED. AFTERNOON AND THEN UNFOLDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WED NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE OVER THE 4 CORNERS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GOM EARLY WED. THE GULF LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WED NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS WHERE THE BEST BANDING WILL SET UP AND THE SUBSEQUENT QPF RESPONSE. ALSO FOR THE PIEDMONT AREA...THE QUESTION OF QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS IS A BIG PLAYER IN SNOW ACCUMS. BASED ON SURFACE WET BULBS...IT LOOKS INITIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WHICH WILL USE UP SOME QPF. HENCE...SNOWFALL ACCUMS WILL FALL OFF TO THE SOUTH WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE MOST LIKELY SETTING UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRINGS OF NE GA AND THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE...FROM ELBERT COUNTY GA EAST THROUGH ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES. THE SREF PLUMES CATCH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OUTSIDE THE MOUTAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85 WHERE 4-6 INCHES OF SNOW IS THE MEAN FORECAST. THE PLUMES INDICATE THAT ACTUALLY THE SW MOUNTAINS MAY ACHIEVE THE MOST SNOW OF 6-8 INCHES WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE BASED ON UPSLOPE. THE WPC WWD PAINTS A SWATH OF 4-6 INCH SNOW FROM THE GA MOUNTAINS EASTWARD THROUGH CLT. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS GENERAL IDEA WITH SNOW GRIDS... EXCEPT WENT HIGHER IN THE SW MOUNTAINS (6-8 INCHES SOME AREAS). 12Z MODEL QPF HAS A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS NOW WETTER BUT STILL NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE NAM. THE UPSHOT IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST TO GO AHEAD AND PULL THE TRIGGER ON A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA BEGINNING WED LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF ELBERT...ABBEVILLE...GREENWOOD WHERE WILL A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE MAINTAINED AS RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE IN VICINITY. where do you see 3-7"? In the Winter storm warning it clearly says 3-6" north of 85 and 8+ in the SW mountains of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 the 540 lthickness line is The 540 thickness line is not as valuable in this part of the country as is 1000-850mb and 850-700mb thickness values Looking at the cross section temp profile of the NAM below for KCLT, this goes from rain to snow to maybe rain to snow. 540 is not valuable at all here? Never heard that one before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Based on the visible sat image this afternoon, it would be huge if we could get some clearing overnight to get some radiational cooling......if that allowed us to drop 2 or 3 more degrees than forecast. Then have the clouds roll in before the sun comes up. That would probably be a best case scenario for us in Georgia. If we can hold to about 34 to 36 tomorrow before the precip, that would be a good sign. Any temps 38 to 40 would be somewhat alarming. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 @joeovies: Hope y’all didn’t have spring break plans! RT @WCPSS: WCPSS schools closed on Wed., Feb. 25 due to inclement weather http://t.co/v0HqqK0wvc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Based on the visible sat image this afternoon, it would be huge if we could get some clearing overnight to get some radiational cooling......if that allowed us to drop 2 or 3 more degrees than forecast. Then have the clouds roll in before the sun comes up. That would probably be a best case scenario for us in Georgia. If we can hold to about 34 to 36 tomorrow before the precip, that would be a good sign. Any temps 38 to 40 would be somewhat alarming. - Buck I think your bigger problem there is the mid-levels, surface I think you're fine, this is a strong enough storm it will cool down to 32 or 33 and the guidance tomorrow is most definitely too warm. It really is all about the 800-880mb layer with this storm, the models think the BL is going to be warm but they're wrong IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Interesting...wonder if GFS is picking up the snow cover...RDU has 2" of snow on the ground with a hard freeze tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looking at the cross section temp profile of the NAM below for KCLT, this goes from rain to snow to maybe rain to snow. 540 is not valuable at all here? Never heard that one before. I've seen a lot of snow here with thicknesses around 546 and even close to 550. The 540 rule is at best an absolute first guess of where the rain/snow line is. Way better to use partial thicknesses; and even then they may miss subtle warm layers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Unless there's more of a jump North in the evening modeling the blend of guidance still is a crapshoot for ATL. Depending on your back yard the model solutions are being bandied about, even with their known biases. Been here for 20+ yrs, as has been stated the line is usually N or S of ATL proper. Glad I don't have folks relying on my forecast, at this time will go with GFS/EURO blend only slightly cooler due to warm biases. Tomorrow is the big show, boom or bust for this area. Given last two events and being colder than modeled will stick with that, boom for somewhere in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Based on the visible sat image this afternoon, it would be huge if we could get some clearing overnight to get some radiational cooling......if that allowed us to drop 2 or 3 more degrees than forecast. Then have the clouds roll in before the sun comes up. That would probably be a best case scenario for us in Georgia. If we can hold to about 34 to 36 tomorrow before the precip, that would be a good sign. Any temps 38 to 40 would be somewhat alarming. - Buck Good point. I was worried when I saw the temp climb to 40F with an overcast but now it has already dropped to 39F and I see blue sky between the clouds for the 1st time today. Excellent timing for radiational cooling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I may get blasted for this but has the system shifted so the Greenville area is getting less I see the totals are showing 1-3 from some local mets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 18 GFS soundings look more like a sleet-fest for FAY. 25 miles north, in Lilligton, solid snow sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Still think all of Metro ATL gets all rain, only far northern burbs have any shot at accumulations. WSI RPM ("futurecast" on TV stations), SREF, NAM, GFS all screw us- and we are now less than 24 hours away. The fat lady has sung. Congrats far north GA, you will get nailed, down here another hose job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Interesting...wonder if GFS is picking up the snow cover...RDU has 2" of snow on the ground with a hard freeze tonight. Could be. Looks overdone, though. In any case, temperatures are easily into the mid-30s by the time precip arrives here, so no worry. Looks like precip won't arrive until a few hours after dark, so that will help. I really don't think we start out as rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Cherokee County Schools (far north Metro ATL) are now closed tomorrow. Thankfully our super seems to have read the FFC text, instead of relying on that "all rain" forecast by some tv met mentioned upthread. Hopefully enough schools and businesses close tomorrow here that we do not have a repeat of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I've seen a lot of snow here with thicknesses around 546 and even close to 550. The 540 rule is at best an absolute first guess of where the rain/snow line is. Way better to use partial thicknesses; and even then they may miss subtle warm layers. I see your point, i go to 500-1000mb first then look deeper. 546 means somewhere the column is above freezing and that appears to be at the surface. Maybe snow rates overcome melting? maybe. that warm pocket is also concerning, but seems like a outlier maybe....hopefully for CLT's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I think your bigger problem there is the mid-levels, surface I think you're fine, this is a strong enough storm it will cool down to 32 or 33 and the guidance tomorrow is most definitely too warm. It really is all about the 800-880mb layer with this storm, the models think the BL is going to be warm but they're wrong IMO. I hope you're right regarding the model guidance......I'm about 45 miles NE of downtown and even further away from Hartsfield, where all the "official" KATL forecasts for Atlanta are for. There's several of us on here that are roughly 15 miles south of Gainesville, so hopefully when all is said and done we'll be in the sweet spot. It's crazy that a lot of the model snowfall maps show the southern end of our county with zilch while we're close to the 6 to 10 inch. It's gonna be really interesting to see just how the gradient sets up. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Still think all of Metro ATL gets all rain, only far northern burbs have any shot at accumulations. WSI RPM ("futurecast" on TV stations), SREF, NAM, GFS all screw us- and we are now less than 24 hours away. The fat lady has sung. Congrats far north GA, you will get nailed, down here another hose job. Maybe we will have a better shot in March. There's no way we go all winter without any snow or ice. Not a winter with so much cold and moisture around. For that to happen, we would have to have horrible luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I've picked up another 1/2 inch of snow in the past hour in southern wake! big flakes!!! I think this helps keeps temp cool for tomorrow! It is the missing piece of the puzzle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I see your point, i go to 500-1000mb first then look deeper. 546 means somewhere the column is above freezing and that appears to be at the surface. Maybe snow rates overcome melting? maybe. that warm pocket is also concerning, but seems like a outlier maybe....hopefully for CLT's sake. Not necessarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncstatered21 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I may get blasted for this but has the system shifted so the Greenville area is getting less I see the totals are showing 1-3 from some local mets NC or SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I may get blasted for this but has the system shifted so the Greenville area is getting less I see the totals are showing 1-3 from some local mets why would we blast you? I agree that the shift north is starting to take GSP out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 There's no way we go all winter without any snow or ice. Not a winter with so much cold and moisture around. For that to happen, we would have to have horrible luck. It's happened many times. We live in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Dang so no snow at all or just not the heavy amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Still think all of Metro ATL gets all rain, only far northern burbs have any shot at accumulations. WSI RPM ("futurecast" on TV stations), SREF, NAM, GFS all screw us- and we are now less than 24 hours away. The fat lady has sung. Congrats far north GA, you will get nailed, down here another hose job. We seriously cannot get a break this winter. So frustrating storm after storm...same exact thing, same exact story every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 why would we blast you? I agree that the shift north is starting to take GSP out of it. It hasn't really shifted north, the temps are just be modeled a bit warmer which may or may not be correct. Northern counties in the upstate should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unionsc Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Burger, are you talking about the January 2013 ULL? The majority of NC and probably upstate SC were under WSWs for that one, IIRC, but most places never changed over from rain until the very end, aside from the Triad area (where we got a heavy wet snowfall at 33-34 degrees that evening with like 5:1 ratios... knocked out power here, too.). Question? These images that are posted and say gif, are they really gifs? They are just overzoomed images when i ooen them. I have a new android phone and trying to relearn how to use a phone after being on iPhone for years. Any help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.