weatherfide Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Here it is.....the setup looked colder with more cold air in place with a more south track of the upper lows http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1983/us0324.php I checked out CIPS today and no setup really resembled this with the surface low so far south yet the 500 low relatively far north....1/24/91 I thought was the closest one overall and it was not a spectacular match Thanks! 850 low was just to my south. This time, it will be well to my north and much weaker. Rain definitely looks like a lock now, for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Plumes are out. Greensboro is just over 6". The funny part is that none of the members are anywhere close to the mean. They are grouped around 5" and 10"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Plumes are out. Greensboro is just over 6". The funny part is that none of the members are anywhere close to the mean. They are grouped around 5" and 10"! Yeah, there's a tight cluster around 4-5" and another tight cluster around 8-10"... the mean of 6.60" is almost not informative at all... At least we no longer have any members that blank us (minimum is 0.73"). One member gives us 14", but most seem within reason. Our mean QPF is actually close to 0.9". Some of the members start us out as rain, which I frankly think is not very realistic at this point beyond a brief period (less than 30 minutes, if that, IMO... and probably not at all). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 sref plumes an improvement, quite a few for rdu between 6-10", mean is a solid 4.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Mean is 7, huge cluster between 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 SREF still shows a lot of rain to sleet for RDU which cuts snow totals. QPF mean is over 1", so if you think it'll stay cold enough, that could easily be 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 SREF still shows a lot of rain to sleet for RDU which cuts snow totals. QPF mean is over 1", so if you think it'll stay cold enough, that could easily be 10". yep mean qpf is 1.1", snow ptypes upped big time from the 15z run. all ingredients are there for a big dog for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Plumes are out. Greensboro is just over 6". The funny part is that none of the members are anywhere close to the mean. They are grouped around 5" and 10"! Throwing out the four highest members still gives us a mean of just over 5". I'd take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 This is from the GFS for 00z Thurs. The yellows and reds show the coupled jet streaks (250mb) with the southeast being in the left exit region of the subtropical jet across TX/LA and in the right entrance region of the polar jet over the northeast/mid-atlantic...leading to the diverging black arrows over the southeast showing the 250mb divergence aloft. If you run the loop, you can see these good dynamics roll through MS/AL, then into the Carolinas. So, this shows the dynamic nature of the system. Limiting factor with precip amounts for this storm is that it is a relatively fast mover. The blue lines / shading over the southeast represents upward vertical motion at 500mb - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/irrwind/irrwind_namer_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Here it is.....the setup looked colder with more cold air in place with a more south track of the upper lows http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1983/us0324.php I checked out CIPS today and no setup really resembled this with the surface low so far south yet the 500 low relatively far north....1/24/91 I thought was the closest one overall and it was not a spectacular match Snowgoose, Thanks. Note the low 850 RH for that one just before the precip. started. I wonder if that, itself, could have caused evap. cooling at 850 to have been underestimated? Opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 SREF still shows a lot of rain to sleet for RDU which cuts snow totals. QPF mean is over 1", so if you think it'll stay cold enough, that could easily be 10".January 25th, 2000 was also rain to sleet. It didn't change over to snow until 2 to 3 hours after precip started. By 1 AM, we had 4-5" on the ground. Not saying this will be like that, but if we do have a juicy storm, we can afford to waste precip on sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 January 25th, 2000 was also rain to sleet. It didn't change over to snow until 2 to 3 hours after precip started. By 1 AM, we had 4-5" on the ground. Not saying this will be like that, but if we do have a juicy storm, we can afford to waste precip on sleet.In Chapel Hill / Orange county it started as snow. There was +6" at 9pm west of Carrboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 So close to the 8+ on WxSouth's map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 What's up guys? Sucks been working all day haven't had a chance to chat with everyone. Hey I saw goose mentioned how far off 18z was to realization. Does this mean that at initialization it could skew the nam to what the surface actually depicts on radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 January 25th, 2000 was also rain to sleet. It didn't change over to snow until 2 to 3 hours after precip started. By 1 AM, we had 4-5" on the ground. Not saying this will be like that, but if we do have a juicy storm, we can afford to waste precip on sleet. I doubt we will have that much rain or sleet. Allan already explained why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 This is from the GFS for 00z Thurs. The yellows and reds show the coupled jet streaks (250mb) with the southeast being in the left exit region of the subtropical jet across TX/LA and in the right entrance region of the polar jet over the northeast/mid-atlantic...leading to the diverging black arrows over the southeast showing the 250mb divergence aloft. If you run the loop, you can see these good dynamics roll through MS/AL, then into the Carolinas. So, this shows the dynamic nature of the system. Limiting factor with precip amounts for this storm is that it is a relatively fast mover. The blue lines / shading over the southeast represents upward vertical motion at 500mb - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/irrwind/irrwind_namer_loop.html wow what if this sucker were to slow a little, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 January 25th, 2000 was also rain to sleet. It didn't change over to snow until 2 to 3 hours after precip started. By 1 AM, we had 4-5" on the ground. Not saying this will be like that, but if we do have a juicy storm, we can afford to waste precip on sleet. For my location, it was light rain for most of that time(for the first two hours). Then switched to sleet for about 15 minutes before it was all snow. We ended up in the bull's-eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 In Chapel Hill / Orange county it started as snow. There was +6" at 9pm west of Carrboro. I lived on Davie Circle in Chapel Hill, and it started at my house as rain. It was raining at 6:00 p.m. when I left for work at Nortel in RTP. When I arrived at work, a few snowflakes were starting to mix in, but it was still predominately a wind-whipped rain. By the time I left work just after midnight, there was about 8" of powder on the parking lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Nam at 12 closed off as depicted at same time frame on 18z may be a tad weaker tho on 0z placement wise looks to be the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 For my location, it was light rain for most of that time. Then switched to sleet for about 15 minutes before it was all snow. We ended up in the bull's-eye.Where I lived at the time was off Honeycutt not just a few miles north from where 540 is now. The rain didn't last too long, but it did seem to sleet a good while. Maybe I misremembered how long that was. I do remember, however, watching the changeover band on the radar move from east to west as the cold air wrapped in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Watching the NAM come in. A plug for Allan's (RaleighWx) trend loop on the AmWx model site....really nice feature for seeing how a model has trended over the last 4 runs. At hr12, the wave is over TX, and you can see over the last 4 runs it has weakened slightly on the NAM...which makes sense in that it has been the over-amped outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 At 14 she's still closed whereas it had opened on the 20hr image of 18z qpf looks to me a tad nw most likely no significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The NAM still has our ULL closed off at hr 15, which is new. Heights are a little higher further east (comparing to the 18z run) - I am nitpicking there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Also of note is that the heights over the northeast are stable over the last 4 runs....if these heights were trending north, our wave and storm would be trending much farther north and warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Me thinks this run is going to look extra good for the folks south of me, rdu clt etc. nam is not going to come in as amped just by looking at 5h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 @21 you can def. tell it's not as ampped...still a big one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Precip exploding in the gulf coast states at 23 not closed off either as 18z was I feel epic about to happen down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Me thinks this run is going to look extra good for the folks south of me, rdu clt etc. nam is not going to come in as amped just by looking at 5h Agree, this may be similar to last run, but shouldn't be north and warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm assuming the PM times should be WD and not TH 4 PM Wednesday 7 PM Wednesday Yes, he's a silly boy - quite a nw trend there huh? must need more 'likes.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The SLP track looks darn close to 18z even though the ULL was a tad weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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