strongwxnc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I assume your area stays all snow.. And yes, in a great spot! I am south on you in Rutherford. Very good run for me right above 40 in eastern Burke like how it bands the 40 all the way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 4 km NAM time. At hr 24, the surface low looks ~50 mile N of the 18z run (onshore in the W FL Panhandle rather than just S of the shoreline), and is warmer for GA/AL, as a result. We'll see where she goes. Strength is the same (1001 mb). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 WRAL's latest futurecast run. much more in line with guidance than earlier. 6" over Widre house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Hi-RES NAM is bonkers for RDU and points just east of CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NAM and RPM from 0Z just heavier than before in north GA, gradient on the south side has shifted only a tiny bit south, all snow still north of the Perimeter- so my thinking of ITP getting not much and the NWS being way too far south still looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RGEM is a thing of beauty for northern Ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 it's a touch colder than the 18z run but I still can't help but think the nam is too warm aloft and indeed heavy precip will keep temps from warming aloft as much as it keeps insisting. this run actually drops 850s below 0 initially then by around hour 23 moves them just above 0 again. What is worrisome to me about this is that it does right in the middle of very intense precip rates. In fact the nam is actually showing a little dynamical cooling taking place way to the south over south georgia/southern sc with the blob of heaviest convection. My guess is that warming at hour 24 in the mid-levels is because the low intensifies, but the low is basically SE of N GA by that point, I've been discussing that idea of the NAM warming things with people all day and most agree its suspicious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 What is the future cast model anyway? Who created it? is it a blend of other models? Not to get too off topic. Im just trying to understand its variables and biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Congrats eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 hires nam has absolutely insane rates for rdu. gotta think there is a shot at thundersnow under some of the bands. 2"/hr rates at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NAM and RPM from 0Z just heavier than before in north GA, gradient on the south side has shifted only a tiny bit south, all snow still north of the Perimeter- so my thinking of ITP getting not much and the NWS being way too far south still looks good. The NAM up here in the northeast has been overamped all winter on virtually every storm, if the RGEM overadjusted at 12Z and comes south this gets very interesting in your area, it really does not take a big shift, the WAA is just not impressive with this in the layers that are borderline and the last 3 storms in the SE have ended up colder than some guidance was saying...I don't think the south towns need to worry but it would not shock me if FTY-PDK saw 4 or 5 inches and the airport 2 or 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 What is the future cast model anyway? Who created it? is it a blend of other models? Not to get too off topic. Im just trying to understand its variables and biases. From my understanding it is just a model based off of the 4k NAM that a weather service sells to stations. They just call it the "in house modeling". A big marketing play and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Robert's map actually looks good tbh. Could definitely see that happening. I think it's a bit too far South into SC. BUT I'm also not a professional met by any means and I have seen others with something not too far off too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The 4 km NAM is a bit stronger and closer to the coast at hr 30. Great run for E NC, of course, but also a better run for W NC, which was largely screwed over by the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raine1212 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 What worrys me, being the CSRA, our weather is never forecasted right. I am afraid no one will be prepared even if we get a 1", this area will shut down. I see rain on the maps and then I see snow on the maps, maybe I should be prepared in case of a shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RGEM is a thing of beauty for northern Ga. This is exactly what I would imagine the radar would look like in N. GA. Rain/Snow line just south of Atlanta...very heavy rates will transition to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Are we relying on gulf or Atlantic moisture for the main driver of this storm, or both? Some models seem to indicate a minimum in the central-western part of the state, and I'm wondering if the coastal portion of the low could "skip" certain areas. We've seen it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Straight sh*tted on by the NAM! 12-16" into Hampton Roads. I am just going to go ahead and apply a 30% reduction to whatever the NAM shows. Can't remember getting NAM'd so many runs in a row before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 4 km NAM: Compare to the 18z run: http://i59.tinypic.com/2vd5fzm.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 My guess is that warming at hour 24 in the mid-levels is because the low intensifies, but the low is basically SE of N GA by that point, I've been discussing that idea of the NAM warming things with people all day and most agree its suspicious from my experience the nam doesn't normally "see" the cooling until right before it's happening. It will hint at it, shift it around a bit before hand but not do well with it well ahead of time. Regardless, the cooling it shows over central ga aloft is impressive...dropping 4c in many locals. a closer examination shows that temps are within that infamous 1c..maybe even 0.50c from being snow on a much wider scale through hour 27 over quite a wide area. that's not a lot of wiggle room for the model to be right in the face of very intense precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Still going with my 6-10 for Randolph County, Side note Banter is fixing to be epic in 1minute and 3 seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Are we relying on gulf or Atlantic moisture for the main driver of this storm, or both? Some models seem to indicate a minimum in the central-western part of the state, and I'm wondering if the coastal portion of the low could "skip" certain areas. We've seen it before. Some of the moisture from this system will be brought from the Atlantic Ocean. There will be southeasterly winds almost entirely through the storm, so this could help to enhance the precipitation through the Carolinas. I expect that models could be under-doing the precipitation in certain areas, and that is why I am not shocked when the NAM increased precipitation at 0z. I expect nearly all the state to receive at least a 1/2 of an inch of precipitation, and areas from roughly I-77 west to receive over 3/4 of an inch of precipitation. Further east, 1+ inch of precip is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 My guess is that warming at hour 24 in the mid-levels is because the low intensifies, but the low is basically SE of N GA by that point, I've been discussing that idea of the NAM warming things with people all day and most agree its suspicious Its funny....NAM puts snowflakes in the air around here once that Mid level low cranks...hahah takes our 850 temps to like 0c, with some insane lift. I still think the NAM is too far NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 from my experience the nam doesn't normally "see" the cooling until right before it's happening. It will hint at it, shift it around a bit before hand but not do well with it well ahead of time. Regardless, the cooling it shows over central ga aloft is impressive...dropping 4c in many locals. a closer examination shows that temps are within that infamous 1c..maybe even 0.50c from being snow on a much wider scale through hour 27 over quite a wide area. that's not a lot of wiggle room for the model to be right in the face of very intense precip rates. Look at what it does Chris, when it strengthens the mid low over southern GA. It drops my 850's down to like 0c almost -2c for a brief time...hahah Well..ok nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 From my understanding it is just a model based off of the 4k NAM that a weather service sells to stations. They just call it the "in house modeling". A big marketing play and that's it. It is from WSI and is similar to the NAM but can be quite different at times as the physics package is not the same in all areas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I think the Webber map belongs in the disco thread too, for posterity's sake: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The NAM up here in the northeast has been overamped all winter on virtually every storm, if the RGEM overadjusted at 12Z and comes south this gets very interesting in your area, it really does not take a big shift, the WAA is just not impressive with this in the layers that are borderline and the last 3 storms in the SE have ended up colder than some guidance was saying...I don't think the south towns need to worry but it would not shock me if FTY-PDK saw 4 or 5 inches and the airport 2 or 3 I would be completely shocked if the airport got 2-3". As I said before I would just love to be dead wrong with this one though..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Frank Strait has a unique point of view. He gives hope for just about everyone! http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/strait/snowstorm/42919816 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It is from WSI and is similar to the NAM but can be quite different at times as the physics package is not the same in all areas.... Isn't there a big debate though as to if WSI really even does anything special with it?...Thus why I'm calling it a marketing play for them. They can make the network feel good about having something "unique" while spending the minimal amount of money on servers and networks. Just what has alway been floated around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Hires Nam Total Snow Depth on Ground image courtesy of Weatherbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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