jacobr57 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Do you know which members should be more trusted in this situation? I did notice that the three families of members were all pretty different. --- 00z ECMWF clown totals: PGV: 11" ATL: 6" CLT: 6" GSO: 4" RDU: 7" GSP: 5" One thing I would note is that 850s are really cold for the northern fringes of the precip shield, so I guess it's possible there's decent ratios up there. >2" makes it all the way up to Roanoke as the precip field continues to spread out on each successive Euro run. Sorry for the IMBY post, but do you have an AVL total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The mean snowfall is a bit deceptive because they still seems to be a spread among the members. Almost all of the arw members show something like this: Granted, this is overdone, but it does realize the potential here. The NMM panels from the sref are total different with minimal snowfall for the most part. Good grief. Understand that this is overamped.....but that is mighty pretty to see at 24 hrs out... Needed to see that after my boys put that crapfest on the floor this evening in the Dome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The mean snowfall is a bit deceptive because they still seems to be a spread among the members. Almost all of the arw members show something like this: Granted, this is overdone, but it does realize the potential here. The NMM panels from the sref are total different with minimal snowfall for the most part. Looks like/similar to the image I just posted. Shows consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 ATL looks great on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Sorry for the IMBY post, but do you have an AVL total? 4". I edited the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Euro is a big hit for I-20 and points north. 6"+ for downtown ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Omg, please let the Euro verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The Euro may actually reflect the temperatures trends. If that's the case, Atlanta will get a good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Well, if the Euro verifies FFC's snowfall projections might actually be underdone. I'll gladly take my five inches and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlantaThrasher Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Euro is coming in like a wrecking ball for Atlanta... Mother of god! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The model consensus is to pretty much have the heaviest totals through north georgia and skip over upstate and start again with heavier totals once it hits charlotte and go through raleigh. Sadly for the upstate, that seems like it would most likely be correct given our history. What causes this to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looking over past event maps on NWS Raleigh, it doesn't look like RDU has *officially* seen a 8"+ snowstorm since Jan 25th 2000. Although there have been a few 6" events, heaviest events always seem to miss RDU by a madder of 25 miles on way or the other. Can anyone confirm that is the last time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looking over past event maps on NWS Raleigh, it doesn't look like RDU has *officially* seen a 8"+ snowstorm since Jan 25th 2000. Although there have been a few 6" events, heaviest events always seem to miss RDU by a madder of 25 miles on way or the other. Can anyone confirm that is the last time? January 2002 was the last time. It's the last time I saw a >8" snowstorm, too. (last Fab Feb was right at 8") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The model consensus is to pretty much have the heaviest totals through north georgia and skip over upstate and start again with heavier totals once it hits charlotte and go through raleigh. Sadly for the upstate, that seems like it would most likely be correct given our history. What causes this to happen? 5h low weakening and the coastal taking over. The precip that has been traversing the country starts to die out as the main source of snow is now the coastal low and usually someone in the middle has a relative minimum of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 January 2002 was the last time. It's the last time I saw a >8" snowstorm, too. (last Fab Feb was right at 8") Totally forgot about that storm ... thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Hmm, HRRR look slightly more wet on the northern edge of the storm (Arkansas/Northern Mississippi) at the end of the run comparing to Euro roughly at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 5h low weakening and the coastal taking over. The precip that has been traversing the country starts to die out as the main source of snow is now the coastal low and usually someone in the middle has a relative minimum of precipitation. Yeah that makes sense unfortunately. Depressing here in the upstate having higher totals to our west and east. Oh well, still hoping we can pull out 4" or 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 the doc just said heloo I-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The TX precip. is currently more extensive than the 0Z Euro had and it is WAY more extensive than the very little shown by the 0Z GFS. Will this translate into even higher precip. than those models are showing, which are about their wettest yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm not sure if I have seen 8"+ since 1988. I was in Clemson in 2004 (dusting) when Spartanburg got 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Forecast low of 28F here and we are down to 27F already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Totally forgot about that storm ... thanks! Jan 2, 2002 was 10-11 in of snow on the peninsula. Great snow storm in a warm winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RNK 11:30 Update... Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA1128 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015...WINTER STORM TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE REGIONWEDNESDAY NIGHT....A STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT TOOFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY MORNING. AS MOISTURE MOVESINTO THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...SNOW WILL THE MAIN WEATHER TYPE. SOMERAIN WILL BE MIXED IN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE NORTHCAROLINA FOOTHILLS...EAST TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA...BUT CHANGETO ALL SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WINTER STORM WILL EXITBY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-GRAYSON-CARROLL-PATRICK-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...DANBURY...BOONE...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY...GALAX...STUART1128 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM ESTTHURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PMWEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOLONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...NORTH TO ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM MOUNT ROGERS TO STUART VIRGINIA.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 7 INCHES.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...TAPERING OFF AFTER DAWN THURSDAY.* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS CAN BE EXPECTED...AND THIS SNOW WILL BE WET...AND HARDER TO TRAVEL ON.* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...FALLING IN THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The TX precip. is currently more extensive than the 0Z Euro had and it is WAY more extensive than the very little shown by the 0Z GFS. Will this translate into even higher precip. than those models are showing, which are about their wettest yet? Short-range models are also coming in little heavier for Southern Arkansas/Northern Mississippi, but it's a thin storm comparing to Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The Euro isn't the worst look for the Central Midlands. From glancing, that 35F line from weather bell goes to our South so it's still close. If you are around this area, just pray that models are slightly off on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The Euro may actually reflect the temperatures trends. If that's the case, Atlanta will get a good snow. The Euro has been come and go this winter, it was horrible early, it got very hot after the failed blizzard debacle in NYC for about 2-3 weeks, but the last 2 weeks it has been running somewhat cold again and very dry on its QPF...and by cold I mean poor, not running cold thermally lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RNK 11:30 Update... Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1128 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 ...WINTER STORM TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT... .A STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY MORNING. AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...SNOW WILL THE MAIN WEATHER TYPE. SOME RAIN WILL BE MIXED IN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS...EAST TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA...BUT CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WINTER STORM WILL EXIT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-GRAYSON- CARROLL-PATRICK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON... DANBURY...BOONE...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE...INDEPENDENCE... WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY...GALAX...STUART 1128 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...NORTH TO ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM MOUNT ROGERS TO STUART VIRGINIA. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 7 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...TAPERING OFF AFTER DAWN THURSDAY. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS CAN BE EXPECTED...AND THIS SNOW WILL BE WET...AND HARDER TO TRAVEL ON. * WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING IN THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. Blacksburg took it up a few notches with the latest model outputs....went to 4-7, wonder when RAH will pull the trigger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The Euro clown snow maps are very low resolution and tend to spread or bleed the snow qpf contours outward on every side- so it gives the illusion of more snow down to south of I-20 but looking at the 2M temps and 850 temps they suggest not as much snow further south than what the accumulation maps show- and this also flies in the face of most of the other guidance. Also there is no evidence that the Doc is any better than the more hi-res models at this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The Euro clown snow maps are very low resolution and tend to spread or bleed the snow qpf contours outward on every side- so it gives the illusion of more snow down to south of I-20 but looking at the 2M temps and 850 temps they suggest not as much snow further south than what the accumulation maps show- and this also flies in the face of most of the other guidance. Also there is no evidence that the Doc is any better than the more hi-res models at this time frame Well, that explains the thinner looking storm on HRRR/RAP for those west of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The Euro has been come and go this winter, it was horrible early, it got very hot after the failed blizzard debacle in NYC for about 2-3 weeks, but the last 2 weeks it has been running somewhat cold again and very dry on its QPF...and by cold I mean poor, not running cold thermally lol. Do you think QPF could be underdone in general by some of the drier models, then? Aside from the really heavy bands, the NAM didn't seem that ridiculous QPF-wise to me, for example. Then again, I'm not a met, so I might not be seeing everything correctly. The Euro has doubled QPF here in the last two runs, so maybe it has caught on, or maybe it still has a ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.