franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Closed off (albeit barely) over C TN valid 0z 2/26getting there. Would like to see it closed off coming thru wnc. that would greatly help with thunder snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Gradient is going to set up over I-20 in the ATL metro.. County on big numbers north side of the metro, little to nothing on the south side. I've been told by more than a few people that they do not recall a snow/rain event where the gradient setup over downtown ATL like this, it usually sets up south of the airport between Macon or well north between the north perimeter and Rome...it makes you wonder if in the end one of those scenarios ultimately pans out and this jumps 50 miles either way of where it is now....the tendency is for those favored gradients to occur over and over, there can be exceptions but they are rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Closed off (albeit barely) over C TN valid 0z 2/26. That's the first time it's shown this. Thus, the precip building back west. 18z GFS almost does it too! .. and also finally starting to look like the rest of the models. I think W NC is going to look better with qpf amounts as this ULL is better defined and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 GFS is pretty warm at the surface, folks. The rain concerns for central and southern NC are not at all unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 not sure what to say that hasnt been said. i have 2" of powder outside right now. pretty sure there wont be an issue w/ snow sticking. and rdu is fine temp wise. I think Fishel is in denial for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 GFS is pretty warm at the surface, folks. The rain concerns for central and southern NC are not at all unreasonable. And I was all feeling better about surface temps too. I still think the mid levels are the biggest concern, if the BL is shallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I wouldn't Fishel bash too much just yet. The NWS shares some of his concerns and they're pretty smart people. Let's try not to weenie too hard. I agree...If his forecast ends up being correct, you say that's why he's a professional meteorologist and I'm not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Sick of hearing about Fishel. Can we get back on topic please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 If the Hi-Res NAM is right, it continues to factor in most of the snow falling at temperatures above 32 significantly cutting into accumulations in many areas Images courtesy of Weatherbell Note the Red Freezing Line Actual Snow Depth on Ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artie Fufkin Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 welp...ATL friends...not good this run of the gfs and the trends Chris - can you elaborate? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Just a heads up...the RPM model is usually horrible, it's just a marketing tool and I believe it just runs off the Hi-Res NAM with a few tweaks...those tweaks tend to make it bad. I would guess it is seeing the thickness the NAM is and not properly accounting for cooling. Either way moisture moves in by 7pm if by 10pm we're turning to snow we might loose an inch. I'm not worried. This is the best look we've had in a long time. There will be surprises, winners and losers. We won't know until it starts falling. If GA overperforms early then it's going to be good for us. Something that I always look at are recent trends. The last few storms have trended wetter and SFC temps have been cooler than models predicted even 24 hours out due to the cold air hanging around longer. That has to account for something here. I doubt many of us break 40 tomorrow. Just a non scientific guess. Ya, I think yalls area is ok...but, I have very HIGH concerns for GA. The warming trend is enough to push that to at least N metro now. not that it concerns me, I am going to need a boat!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 If the Hi-Res NAM is right, it continues to factor in most of the snow falling at temperatures above 32 significantly cutting into accumulations in many areas Actual Snow Depth on Ground The top map only covers 3 hours of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 You and your homeboy Fishel need to go pitch a tent together Wed night and take your little umbrellas with you too. Seriously, I can't believe you'd listen to anything out of that clowns mouth, he's about as bad as DT but on the other side of the fence. WRAL should be sued for public endangerment, what a joke that station is. That's funny that the guy said they were hesitant to post a WSW when there is one issued now. I think WRAL and WTVD is out to lunch on this idea it's going to be rain mostly. The NWS briefing said they are pretty confident in 2-4 in the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Chris - can you elaborate? Thanks. The trends at 850 have been not the greatest today. Its a close call for atl proper. The north side and north look fine, but that 0c line has been trending north on EVERY model today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Fishel didn't say all rain. Nothing on WRAL is saying that. He said that there could be some rain mixing it and that could cut down on totals, which isn't at all unreasonable as a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I've been told by more than a few people that they do not recall a snow/rain event where the gradient setup over downtown ATL like this, it usually sets up south of the airport between Macon or well north between the north perimeter and Rome...it makes you wonder if in the end one of those scenarios ultimately pans out and this jumps 50 miles either way of where it is now....the tendency is for those favored gradients to occur over and over, there can be exceptions but they are rare. One exception I can think of is the March '09 event where the northern suburbs got nothing with 3"+ 10 miles south. I have a bad feeling that the northern metro will be right on the edge in this event given model trends...as much as we want to throw out the NAM/GFS/etc the closer we get to the evemt the more accurate the models will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Great point. Today's event was different and shouldn't have a tremendous impact on the next storm. This one started as snow after full night of tremendous cooling. The next event will start at 9 PM after a full complement of late Feb sunshine in NC. Smart move for WRAL, not to jump on the bandwagon. Even if they have "egg on their faces" right now. They were pretty much right with this event. The main issue was that it occurred right around rush hour, and temps were COLD. They were not right with this event. They said this developed last night and it was more than they thought, even though models were showing up to 2 inches of snow yesterday. And we have had snow for hours today. Even if the sun comes out tomorrow that doesn't mean it is going to be warm. This concern about the temps is out of proportion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 GFS is pretty warm at the surface, folks. The rain concerns for central and southern NC are not at all unreasonable. Here is hr 33, which looked to be the warmest surface temp on the 18z gfs during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artie Fufkin Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The trends at 850 have been not the greatest today. Its a close call for atl proper. The north side and north look fine, but that 0c line has been trending north on EVERY model today. Thanks - sounds a lot like today. Our neighborhood was hit pretty hard but five miles south the roads were fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 That's funny that the guy said they were hesitant to post a WSW when there is one issued now. I think WRAL and WTVD is out to lunch on this idea it's going to be rain mostly. The NWS briefing said they are pretty confident in 2-4 in the Triangle. Funny, they are looking at the same data. Its called educated opinions, experience, etc. Dont dismiss one or the other unless you have a foundation of experience that tells you to. Lighten up folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 That's funny that the guy said they were hesitant to post a WSW when there is one issued now. I think WRAL and WTVD is out to lunch on this idea it's going to be rain mostly. The NWS briefing said they are pretty confident in 2-4 in the Triangle. RAH also said 6 for Raleigh. And all the mets outside the Triangle are calling for at least 6 in the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 GFS is pretty warm at the surface, folks. The rain concerns for central and southern NC are not at all unreasonable. Only storm I can remember with this much bust potential (and it did bust hard) was that ULL in Feb. of 2013. Had us under heavy snow warnings and it ended up being all rain for the most part with a little bit of sleet....but in that case the ULL just made a last second turn and ended up slamming parts of the MA and OV IRRC. So it went overhead and we never got the advantage of the dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Only storm I can remember with this much bust potential (and it did bust hard) was that ULL in Feb. of 2013. Had us under heavy snow warnings and it ended up being all rain for the most part with a little bit of sleet....but in that case the ULL just made a last second turn and ended up slamming parts of the MA and OV IRRC. So it went overhead and we never got the advantage of the dynamics.Was that one of those isothermal storms? Those never work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 This was evident even yesterday with the thickness values being above 540 in some models. For example, the 540 lines is not even in NC at the height of the storm according to the NAM. My 5-7 snow accumulation was if it was all snow, but that is clearly not going to happen. Should have stuck with my inch or two forecast from 2 days ago lol the 540 lthickness line is This was evident even yesterday with the thickness values being above 540 in some models. For example, the 540 lines is not even in NC at the height of the storm according to the NAM. My 5-7 snow accumulation was if it was all snow, but that is clearly not going to happen. Should have stuck with my inch or two forecast from 2 days ago lol The 540 thickness line is not as valuable in this part of the country as is 1000-850mb and 850-700mb thickness values Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Only storm I can remember with this much bust potential (and it did bust hard) was that ULL in Feb. of 2013. Had us under heavy snow warnings and it ended up being all rain for the most part with a little bit of sleet....but in that case the ULL just made a last second turn and ended up slamming parts of the MA and OV IRRC. So it went overhead and we never got the advantage of the dynamics. Burger, are you talking about the January 2013 ULL? The majority of NC and probably upstate SC were under WSWs for that one, IIRC, but most places never changed over from rain until the very end, aside from the Triad area (where we got a heavy wet snowfall at 33-34 degrees that evening with like 5:1 ratios... knocked out power here, too.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 RAH also said 6 for Raleigh. And all the mets outside the Triangle are calling for at least 6 in the Triangle. Brick, Here was their language regarding the map that had the 4-6. "This map shows a less likely, but a possible scenario if the amounts end up higher." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 WSW from GSP Interesting... they changed accumulations from 3-5" (from this morning) to 3-7". .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS OF COURSE FOR THE SHORT TERMIS THE IMPENDING WINTER EVENT WHICH BEGINS WED. AFTERNOON AND THENUNFOLDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WED NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD MODELCONSENSUS THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE OVER THE 4 CORNERSTHIS MORNING WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVERTHE GOM EARLY WED. THE GULF LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLYEASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WED NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THISFORECAST IS WHERE THE BEST BANDING WILL SET UP AND THE SUBSEQUENTQPF RESPONSE. ALSO FOR THE PIEDMONT AREA...THE QUESTION OF QUICKLYTHE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS IS A BIG PLAYER IN SNOW ACCUMS. BASED ONSURFACE WET BULBS...IT LOOKS INITIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WHICH WILL USE UP SOME QPF.HENCE...SNOWFALL ACCUMS WILL FALL OFF TO THE SOUTH WITH THERAIN/SNOW LINE MOST LIKELY SETTING UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERNFRINGS OF NE GA AND THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE...FROM ELBERT COUNTY GAEAST THROUGH ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES. THE SREF PLUMES CATCHTHIS SCENARIO WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OUTSIDE THE MOUTAINS ALONG ANDNORTH OF I-85 WHERE 4-6 INCHES OF SNOW IS THE MEAN FORECAST. THEPLUMES INDICATE THAT ACTUALLY THE SW MOUNTAINS MAY ACHIEVE THE MOSTSNOW OF 6-8 INCHES WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE BASED ON UPSLOPE. THE WPC WWDPAINTS A SWATH OF 4-6 INCH SNOW FROM THE GA MOUNTAINS EASTWARDTHROUGH CLT. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS GENERAL IDEA WITH SNOW GRIDS...EXCEPT WENT HIGHER IN THE SW MOUNTAINS (6-8 INCHES SOME AREAS). 12ZMODEL QPF HAS A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS NOW WETTER BUTSTILL NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE NAM. THE UPSHOT IS THAT CONFIDENCE ISHIGHEST TO GO AHEAD AND PULL THE TRIGGER ON A WINTER STORM WARNINGFOR MOST OF THE AREA BEGINNING WED LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION ISTHE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF ELBERT...ABBEVILLE...GREENWOODWHERE WILL A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE MAINTAINED AS RAIN/SNOW LINEWILL BE IN VICINITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 SREF probability of greater than 1" Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Burger, are you talking about the January 2013 ULL? The majority of NC and probably upstate SC were under WSWs for that one, IIRC, but most places never changed over from rain until the very end, aside from the Triad area (where we got a heavy wet snowfall at 33-34 degrees that evening with like 5:1 ratios). ...and that 1" for Cary was a wet stretch. Just a lot of big flakes with not much on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Just a heads up...the RPM model is usually horrible, it's just a marketing tool and I believe it just runs off the Hi-Res NAM with a few tweaks...those tweaks tend to make it bad. I would guess it is seeing the thickness the NAM is and not properly accounting for cooling. Either way moisture moves in by 7pm if by 10pm we're turning to snow we might loose an inch. I'm not worried. This is the best look we've had in a long time. There will be surprises, winners and losers. We won't know until it starts falling. If GA overperforms early then it's going to be good for us. Something that I always look at are recent trends. The last few storms have trended wetter and SFC temps have been cooler than models predicted even 24 hours out due to the cold air hanging around longer. That has to account for something here. I doubt many of us break 40 tomorrow. Just a non scientific guess. That actually makes a lot of sense because the track Glenn Burns showed earlier definitely looked NAM-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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