franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 CLT mean is 3.34, HKY mean is 8.17. It's got the average r/s line near I-85 to be sure. QPF mean is 1.21" for CLT and 1.06 for HKY. check your mean qpf. Mine is almost 1", with alot of members over 1. The least amount is .3 and it's the only one under .5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 sref initialized rdu at 30 and we are at 25 atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Also 1.13" total for EHO. EHO is right at 6. Gotta be right on the highway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 sref initialized rdu at 30 and we are at 25 atm. They look great, it will tick SE and not be as warm. In fact it ticked SE already, it dropped QPF in half for DC and ours went up. Mean is 4.4" with 0.6" today, up from 9z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 They look great, it will tick SE and not be as warm. In fact it ticked SE already, it dropped QPF in half for DC and ours went up. Mean is 4.4" with 0.6" today, up from 9z run. most encouraging thing is the ridic qpf it gives us...nearly 1.3"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 SREF mean for CLT now down to 3.5 inches. Looking closer to the distributions there are two groupings. One centered around 2in and another grouped around 6. So it looks like we have a lot of members disagreeing with each other. I assume the ones around the 2in mark are the members taking the surface low much further north. Yes, as usual, Charlotte could be the dividing line once again. Love the amt of precip it spits out, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Ok something went haywire and now my mean is 4.77". Must have caught it in the middle of new data. 7 members 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 sref initialized rdu at 30 and we are at 25 atm. I'm currently forecasting this storm from Texas to NC and literally every single station is 5-10 degrees colder than MOS guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 sref initialized rdu at 30 and we are at 25 atm. Snow really cooling things down. At 29 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The old saying that those with the most snow will be able to hear the rain might apply in this one. The only thing I care about is where the sleet band sets up Ya'll can have the snow, if I can just get some sleet on the ground. I can deal with rain/sleet, or snow/sleet, but all rain or all snow would be disappointing... with all rain being more so, or course, and by a huge margin, lol. But may be more likely unless this goes south just a bit. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm currently forecasting this storm from Texas to NC and literally every single station is 5-10 degrees colder than MOS guidance Cool! Surface, 850s or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 @spann: NWS Birmingham issues winter storm warning, including the Birmingham metro, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden #alwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The only thing I care about is where the sleet band sets up Ya'll can have the snow, if I can just get some sleet on the ground. I can deal with rain/sleet, or snow/sleet, but all rain or all snow would be disappointing... with all rain being more so, or course, and by a huge margin, lol. But may be more likely unless this goes south just a bit. T The sleet band appears to be very narrow around Atlanta. I think you and I will remain all rain, unfortunately, for the majority if not entirety of the event. So close, again, though. I would hope for wrap around if it sets up that way. I think that is why some of the models show small accumulations this far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Euro EPS looks good. Track is close to op run. If anything it might be a tough west but not enough to make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Ok, at a computer now and see the mean for GSO is around 7.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The lowest qpf a SREF member has for me is .38 and the 2nd lowest is .67 which puts it right around the global models. Mean is 1.13". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The sleet band appears to be very narrow around Atlanta. I think you and I will remain all rain, unfortunately, for the majority if not entirety of the event. So close, again, though. I would hope for wrap around if it sets up that way. I think that is why some of the models show small accumulations this far south. Well, Spann gave you some love with the WSW, but jumped around my county completely, lol. Fortunately mother nature doesn't pay attention to arbitrary lines drawn by humans as completely as the humans do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Euro EPS looks good. Track is close to op run. If anything it might be a tough west but not enough to make a difference. Yeah it is no more that 25 miles west to my untrained eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Enjoy your snow everyone. Looks like per the usual those of us in CAE will be just a little too far south. I was hoping with me being in Irmo N of I20 would help, but doesn't look like it. Cold rain. Awesome. Is it spring yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 This is a pretty awesome sim radar image. Classic miller A track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Why are you worried about temps when the 850 line is down to 85? You are above 85 right? Temps have proven this week that they will come in lower than expected. Too much worrying over computer data...no offense to the incredible met geeks!! This has the classic makings of an I-85 special! And by that I would include points south like Birmingham/Athens/Anderson/Fountain Inn/Rock Hill/Raleigh Bullseye to me seems to be just Gainesville, GA - Greenville, SC - Charlotte, NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Euro EPS looks good. Track is close to op run. If anything it might be a tough west but not enough to make a difference. EPS and control look great. 6 inches easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 GSP issuing a warning for most of it's areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Temps have proven this week that they will come in lower than expected. Too much worrying over computer data...no offense to the incredible met geeks!! This has the classic makings of an I-85 special! And by that I would include points south like Birmingham/Athens/Anderson/Fountain Inn/Rock Hill/Raleigh Bullseye to me seems to be just Gainesville, GA - Greenville, SC - Charlotte, NC I have to agree. I think that line north of 85 will see 5+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Sref is tucked in farther nw. 9z sref_namer_045_mslp.gif 15z sref_namer_039_mslp.gif This looks too far NW with the low's track, which per the other models' consensus is to across the FL panhandle to near Brunswick to a little offshore SAV. What do others think about the chance for a FL panhandle to Brunswickish track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 NAM looking good through 24. 850's are a touch cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 18z NAM not quite as strong at 700mb at hr24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 NAM looking good through 24. 850's are a touch cooler. Almost 1C colder at the surface tomorrow. every little bit helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 18z NAM not quite as strong at 700mb at hr24yeah not closed off at 700. Could be cause the trough is not as negatively tilted at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Almost 1C colder at the surface tomorrow. every little bit helps. Yes, it's not quite as strong at 700 and 500 at hr30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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