WidreMann Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 0z euro QPF v/s 12z....Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Oh yeah everybody, Chris Justice also said that the heaviest snowfall band could slip a little farther North, or a little farther South, depending on the exact track of the LP. Since the I-85 corridor is right smack in the middle of that map though, I wouldn't think that would affect that corridor all that much. Still a sweet spot I would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Ok, this is good. Snowpack should help the BL. But we don't need any more amping. Yes we do, another 30-50 mile shift NW would be great for us. A 30-50 mile shift SE would not be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It's really amazing that the euro is the least amped of all the models. It's usually too amped and now it's at the lower end of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I-20 North from BMX to ATL I-85 North from ATL to GSP Both of these areas will do very well. South Metro ATL needs to hope from some trends south North Metro better hope it doesn't "tick" any farther Northern 1/5th of GA will get plastered JMO And east of ATL (out I20)......see me waving the towel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Warmest 850 panel on Euro as precip rolls thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 That's the 75%ile forecast probably what WxSouth/Robert shared on facebook a second ago...it's a bit much. It's probably best to use 50%ile, considering it lines up well with the Euro and isn't too extreme. Widespread 10" on the 75%ile image seems bogus. Maybe I don't understand these maps. I though it meant that 75% of the time you will get less than what is shown. If so, why make maps showing what you won't get? Why not make a map showing 4 feet for everyone and call it a 100% map?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It's really amazing that the euro is the least amped of all the models. It's usually too amped and now it's at the lower end of guidance. Since this isn't a phase job maybe it won't do it's typical over-amping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I just took a look at the CIPS analogs web page for some random reason. Focusing in at hour 48 analogs, the best analogs were 1/31/1994, and then 1/31/2010. Note 1/31/2010 was insane for Virginia, 5-9" at VA/NC border. 1/31/1994 had about 1" for Norfolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Since this isn't a phase job maybe it won't do it's typical over-amping.that could be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm surprised the Euro didn't have more QPF. Might be decent ratios us this way, anyways. I see Brad Panovich has the max 6-8" stripe from north of CLT through GSO and into and past RDU. Interesting. BTW, I don't know why Robert posted the 75th percentile WPC map on his Facebook page. A bit deceptive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm surprised the Euro didn't have more QPF. Might be decent ratios us this way, anyways. I see Brad Panovich has the max 6-8" stripe from north of CLT through GSO and into and past RDU. Interesting. BTW, I don't know why Robert posted the 75th percentile WPC map on his Facebook page. A bit deceptive... it's almost time to get sref'd again! I'm interested to see the ukie on wxbell, hopefully it won't take all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 why do you keep posting 75th percentile maps brick? That's useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Maybe I don't understand these maps. I though it meant that 75% of the time you will get less than what is shown. If so, why make maps showing what you won't get? Why not make a map showing 4 feet for everyone and call it a 100% map?? Weather forecasting is all probabilities. If someone could make a map that showed what you were going to get every time then we wouldn't need anything else. Those probability maps are a great way to present the variety of solutions that are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Robert is leaning toward it being cold enough. He just posted this on my FB page: ---------------------- I think between Birmingham to Atlanta and Charlotte is hit squarely on the nose with this one. I really like north side of Atlanta but at times the city may bounce between rain, snow and mix. If the rates win out, then its a MAJOR dump of snow. Odds favor just north but its oh-so-close right downtown. This is the dangerous kind too , where it clumps nicely to trees and powerlines. The 5H look has a great look at some of the best storms for northeast Ga and the Carolinas if you look back on the climatology just as long as your temps support it. And in this case, they do, for many of you. As usual that 85 corridor can be a mean make , or break type of highway. Someone is going to get dumped on though, with hefty rates a few hours. Good news is not much ice if any, maybe some sleet in a narrow zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 0z euro QPF v/s 12z.... Wow, that's not much precip along the 85 corridor, thought it would have been more than that. .4 for CLT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Maybe I don't understand these maps. I though it meant that 75% of the time you will get less than what is shown. If so, why make maps showing what you won't get? Why not make a map showing 4 feet for everyone and call it a 100% map?? It's just statistics. From the WPC: For example, if the 75th percentile map shows six inches of snow at a location, then the probability of getting up to six inches of snow is 75% at that point. Conversely, there is only a 25% probability of snowfall exceeding six inches at the location in this example. Percentile accumulations increase as the percentile level increases. To illustrate this point, take the previous example, but instead of the 75th precentile map consider the 10th percentile map showing two inches of snow at the location. In this case, the probability of getting up to but no more than two inches of snow is just 10%. The probability of getting more than two inches is 90%; so, a significant accumulation of snow is likely. Image I provided to help: For a best estimate, it's good to use 50% or 50th percentile, in the middle of the normally distributed bell curve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm surprised the Euro didn't have more QPF. Might be decent ratios us this way, anyways. I see Brad Panovich has the max 6-8" stripe from north of CLT through GSO and into and past RDU. Interesting. BTW, I don't know why Robert posted the 75th percentile WPC map on his Facebook page. A bit deceptive... I did too, I thought it would be more west, but the ULL is weakening so fast so it's probably right. PGV jackpot....again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 He posted in response to me asking him to post the WPC map that another Met posted on Facebook. why do you keep posting 75th percentile maps brick? That's useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 @spann: NWS in Birmingham and Huntsville will be issuing winter storm warnings soon…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisr4419 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 TWC still showing all rain for Pickens County tomorrow. Either they are genius or just out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Wow, that's not much precip along the 85 corridor, thought it would have been more than that. .4 for CLT? I thought it would be more too, but it's like 30 miles from .75". I think the over-running will over-perform and get a little further north, IMO, I am just not sure how far west the coastal, once off the SE coast will throw snow back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm really excited about where I sit right now with the current models. However, any more trends north and I might be in trouble. 3" seems like a safe bet with the obvious possibility of higher numbers. Will be interesting to see what FFC comes out with total wise on their projection map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 How is this system doing in Texas right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 QPF breakdown for RDU per today's modeling... GFS - 0.25" Euro - 0.5" UK- 0.7" RGEM - 0.7" 4km NAM - 1" Throw out the high/low looking right around 0.6" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 This is a great website to use. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19# How is this system doing in Texas right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm really excited about where I sit right now with the current models. However, any more trends north and I might be in trouble. 3" seems like a safe bet with the obvious possibility of higher numbers. Will be interesting to see what FFC comes out with total wise on their projection map. You're good. A solid 3-6" for you I believe. I'm going with 1-3" for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncstatered21 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I did too, I thought it would be more west, but the ULL is weakening so fast so it's probably right. PGV jackpot....again. I'll take it in PGV and be ready for Spring! Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 TWC still showing all rain for Pickens County tomorrow. Either they are genius or just out to lunch Members don't let members watch TWC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.