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Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp


Wow

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Warmer trends this far out are almost never wrong- I am almost 100% sure now all of the ITP folks in Atlanta get basically nothing while Kennesaw-Alpharetta-Gainesville get nailed.

 

 

I think that's exactly where the bulleye's is going to set up. Someone in the Northern 1/4 of GA is going to get demolished. It's going to be a game of have and have-nots. The haves will have insanely high totals and the have nots will have little to nothing.

 

If I were in the northern suburbs of Atlanta, I'd be very confident and excited...generally an area from just North of Dunwoody up to maybe Dawsonville, then eastward towards Gainesville. If I were in that area, I'd put all my chips on the table.

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Steve - I wouldn't think it would have too big of an impact in 24 to 36 hrs., but hey, every little bit helps.  Looks like you and I may be in the real sweet spot for this one unless something disastrous happens, but we're in the range where model noise may be more likely than major shifts.  That being said, we are in Atlanta, so we should probably wait until it's falling to get excited.  Gotta love the RGEM....it's consistently held on the the bullseye all over the areas to the NE of the perimeter.

 

- Buck

No, I wouldn't either, but when you're sitting on the fence, every degree matters! ;-)

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Wow, look at that RGEM map and how the cutoff just dices Atlanta in half....that's tough if you live in the southern areas if that were to verify.  Just look at Gwinnett county.......nothing to 10 or more inches.....that would actually be pretty cool to see driving from Braselton to Loganville....unbelievable gradient.

 

- Buck

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Warmer trends this far out are almost never wrong- I am almost 100% sure now all of the ITP folks in Atlanta get basically nothing while Kennesaw-Alpharetta-Gainesville get nailed.

i don't know if i agree totally with that. Yes trends are concerning..but it's one model run. Not 3 or 4 in a row. Plus just recently they were wrong with warming. The warming trend they showed with the last ice storm totally busted and they  there was a warming trend on some of the models with respect to last nights/this mornings system and they were a bit too warm as well in some areas.  Of course this is a totally different animal but i'm not sure what has changed so much in 12 hours since last night they were trending the other way.  There's no reason to believe it won't again yet. I know for many 25 miles will make all the difference in the world but such tiny deviations are going to be a given from one run to the next. If it continues on the 18z and 0z runs then it's believable but i think folks are stressing themselves out a bit too much based on one set of model runs.

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i don't know if i agree totally with that. Yes trends are concerning..but it's one model run. Not 3 or 4 in a row. Plus just recently they were wrong with warming. The warming trend they showed with the last ice storm totally busted and they  there was a warming trend on some of the models with respect to last nights/this mornings system and they were a bit too warm as well in some areas.  Of course this is a totally different animal but i'm not sure what has changed so much in 12 hours since last night they were trending the other way.  There's no reason to believe it won't again yet. I know for many 25 miles will make all the difference in the world but such tiny deviations are going to be a given from one run to the next. If it continues on the 18z and 0z runs then it's believable but i think folks are stressing themselves out a bit too much based on one set of model runs.

 

Its basically a 1 degree error at 850, if thats wrong its all snow, thats how close it is.

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That is absolutely ridiculous, does anyone know if that sort of gradient has ever setup before there?

 

I've seen cutoffs like that with a lot of the storms we get, but not that sharp since there's usually a pretty healthy band of mixed precip that can cut down on accumulations but cause a more "gentle" gradient with these type of storms.  If this turns out to be a definite rain or snow event, there will be some disappointed kids (and adults!) on Thursday morning.  It would be kind of funny seeing how Fulton county would have to close schools while in the southern half of the county you could have zero snow and sun breaking out later in the day.

 

- Buck

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Its basically a 1 degree error at 850, if thats wrong its all snow, thats how close it is.

I agree!  and why is everyone talking about an ULL??  this isn't even close to it by the time it gets here....the NAM is in la la land with that.  GFS isn't closed, GEM  or euro from what I can see.

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Don't forget that there are two types of temperatures in play, surface and aloft.  Each model has its own biases.  Usually when a storm approaches, the models will trend cooler at the surface, but warmer aloft which greatly effects the rain/snow line.  The nam and other short term models do relatively well with temperature profiles aloft (never underestimate a warm layer).  Seems like the GFS does well with surface temps?  

 

I thought I would throw that out as food for thought and discussion.

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Its basically a 1 degree error at 850, if thats wrong its all snow, thats how close it is.

Yep but that is par for the course around these parts. It's never simple or easy and normally comes down to 1 degree more times that i care to remember. But because the margin of error is so razor thin, it's unwise to flip out over one set of model runs or proclaim any sort of trend so quickly. These models are not going to be accurate to within one degree every single time they run..it's why you watch for trends over the course of several model runs.

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