oconeexman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Robert is a good met but hugs the NAM a little too much IMO. Look for the NAM to end up being over amped and too far north (slightly) than the "main" models That may be the dumbest comment I've seen in a while. The NAM seems to handle ULL's the best overall imo and when it has support from the other major models you roll with it. And I'm sure he's using a blend of other models on certain specifics. BTW he and the NAM were spot on for this mornings event in NE Ga and upstate SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 GFS is less than .25 qpf here the NAM is over 1.25. What's an inch of liquid equivalent among friends? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 That may be the dumbest comment I've seen in a while. The NAM seems to handle ULL's the best overall imo and when it has support from the other major models you roll with it. And I'm sure he's using a blend of other models on certain specifics. BTW he and the NAM were spot on for this mornings event in NE Ga and upstate SC. Robert has a great record with ULL events. He nailed 2009 and 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 GFS Looks like it now also has a high pressure in NY. CMC had that also. How do surface temps look during the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The cutoff in GA on the RGEM is brutal. You have a 12" jackpot and 20 miles south gets shut out. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Be careful as well. The 0 line is awfully close in that region....I think you just scared you gonna get rain! We are not sweating it here trust me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The cutoff in GA on the RGEM is brutal. You have a 12" jackpot and 20 miles south gets shut out. Crazy. I've seriously never seen such an insanely compact snow accumulation gradient. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I think you just scared you gonna get rain! We are not sweating it here trust me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Verbatim the GFS is about 34F when precip starts and then drops to 32F a few hours later then finally below 30F. I think rates would help with that, verbatim wasn't that great a QPF run, about 0.4" QPF for Wake Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Funny to read some of the panicking going on...it's like a condition with an impending southern winter storm......the 24 to 48 hour panic attack. For the most part everything looks on track, the GFS came in a little north but still not in line with the NAM. For us north Georgia posters, this has the classic look that most of our storms have....if you live north of 285, you'll most likely be fine and may be in the best spot with the heaviest rates that will still be all frozen. Lesser south of I-20 and if you live on the southside of 285, you may be in some trouble. We've seen this play out a thousand times here in NE Georgia, albeit with a few exceptions. I do like the NAM "controversy" for lack of better words... just about everyone on here makes fun of the NAM unless it benefits them. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 NAM Bufkit puts down almost 13" at RDU. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 At home here I will likely get screwed again- probably just a few miles too far south, just like every system this winter, However, I have most of the day to do a short road trip, will probably head up 75 or 400 or 85 into that nice sweet spot of heavy snow. I will go to the snow if it does not come to me. Than I say- bring on severe season!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Funny to read some of the panicking going on...it's like a condition with an impending southern winter storm......the 24 to 48 hour panic attack. For the most part everything looks on track, the GFS came in a little north but still not in line with the NAM. For us north Georgia posters, this has the classic look that most of our storms have....if you live north of 285, you'll most likely be fine and may be in the best spot with the heaviest rates that will still be all frozen. Lesser south of I-20 and if you live on the southside of 285, you may be in some trouble. We've seen this play out a thousand times here in NE Georgia, albeit with a few exceptions. I do like the NAM "controversy" for lack of better words... just about everyone on here makes fun of the NAM unless it benefits them. - Buck Yea its one of the best models when it comes to ULLs regardless of what others say! It is right more time than not on these type storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisr4419 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Like where this is trending for the NW corner of the upstate. We have been missing out on higher totals for several years now while south of here gets the bulk of precip. We are certainly due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 At home here I will likely get screwed again- probably just a few miles too far south, just like every system this winter, However, I have most of the day to do a short road trip, will probably head up 75 or 400 or 85 into that nice sweet spot of heavy snow. I will go to the snow if it does not come to me. Than I say- bring on severe season!!!! I feel the same way..I feel like I'm going to be 10-20 miles South of all of the action...something just does not feel right anymore like it did 24-36 hours ago. I don't feel confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 GFS is warmer, unfortunately, but we'll see if that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 At home here I will likely get screwed again- probably just a few miles too far south, just like every system this winter, However, I have most of the day to do a short road trip, will probably head up 75 or 400 or 85 into that nice sweet spot of heavy snow. I will go to the snow if it does not come to me. Than I say- bring on severe season!!!! If you wanna come to CLT and need a place to crash let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Funny to read some of the panicking going on...it's like a condition with an impending southern winter storm......the 24 to 48 hour panic attack. For the most part everything looks on track, the GFS came in a little north but still not in line with the NAM. For us north Georgia posters, this has the classic look that most of our storms have....if you live north of 285, you'll most likely be fine and may be in the best spot with the heaviest rates that will still be all frozen. Lesser south of I-20 and if you live on the southside of 285, you may be in some trouble. We've seen this play out a thousand times here in NE Georgia, albeit with a few exceptions. I do like the NAM "controversy" for lack of better words... just about everyone on here makes fun of the NAM unless it benefits them. - Buck Just about everyone on here makes fun of every model unless it benefits them. In my 5 years on here I've seen every model get trashed when it didn't show what people wanted. Thursday morning there are gonna be happy people and prolly a ton of sad people. Always happens that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 At home here I will likely get screwed again- probably just a few miles too far south, just like every system this winter, However, I have most of the day to do a short road trip, will probably head up 75 or 400 or 85 into that nice sweet spot of heavy snow. I will go to the snow if it does not come to me. Than I say- bring on severe season!!!! Watch out for those crazy Atlanta drivers.......we'll be on the Hamilton Mill C.C. golf course on Thursday morning hopefully! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 At home here I will likely get screwed again- probably just a few miles too far south, just like every system this winter, However, I have most of the day to do a short road trip, will probably head up 75 or 400 or 85 into that nice sweet spot of heavy snow. I will go to the snow if it does not come to me. Than I say- bring on severe season!!!! what part of Atlanta are you in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I've seriously never seen such an insanely compact snow accumulation gradient. Wow. that is nuts. the 06z rgem had that bullseye over me but if it doesn't look like it will be cold enough here or there will be a changeover, i'm heading to at least gainesville. I think they are pretty safe overall to stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm wondering what the now recent snow cover will have on temps for tonight and tomorrow. Still below freezing at my house in Gwinnett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Warmer trends this far out are almost never wrong- I am almost 100% sure now all of the ITP folks in Atlanta get basically nothing while Kennesaw-Alpharetta-Gainesville get nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Watch out for those crazy Atlanta drivers.......we'll be on the Hamilton Mill C.C. golf course on Thursday morning hopefully! Some nice hills over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 GFS and RGEM crush jobs for the I-20 Corridor between ATL and BMX. 4-6 with isolated 8+ But god it's so close, this will be epic one way or another, either an epic paste job or an epic shaft. I've been in the jackpot zone for a couple days now, can't believe it is still jackpotting me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 GFS coming in much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 After 13 years around this part of the internets... Very simple answer is 24 or 12 hour rule. Do not, I repeat do not let you level of excitement increase until either 24 or 12 hours before the event. This might be a 6 hour event for me. Just enjoy the ride and try to get pissed off when the brown shows through. Just about everyone on here makes fun of every model unless it benefits them. In my 5 years on here I've seen every model get trashed when it didn't show what people wanted. Thursday morning there are gonna be happy people and prolly a ton of sad people. Always happens that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm wondering what the now recent snow cover will have on temps for tonight and tomorrow. Still below freezing at my house in Gwinnett. Steve - I wouldn't think it would have too big of an impact in 24 to 36 hrs., but hey, every little bit helps. Looks like you and I may be in the real sweet spot for this one unless something disastrous happens, but we're in the range where model noise may be more likely than major shifts. That being said, we are in Atlanta, so we should probably wait until it's falling to get excited. Gotta love the RGEM....it's consistently held on the the bullseye all over the areas to the NE of the perimeter. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikepie Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 GFS and RGEM crush jobs for the I-20 Corridor between ATL and BMX. 4-6 with isolated 8+ But god it's so close, this will be epic one way or another, either an epic paste job or an epic shaft. I've been in the jackpot zone for a couple days now, can't believe it is still jackpotting me. Pulling for you Marietta! I live close to Hartsfield so I'm not expecting much down my way, will be interesting to see where the line sets up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.