SnowMan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 My hunch is that further slowing and deepening will show up in next two runs as much of the surface development is taking place southwest of the ULL over SK-ND at this time. This could tend to consolidate the track as much as 2 deg southwest of depictions and bring the ULL over the coast closer to central NJ than NYC, which could allow both more recurvature and a faster trend of explosive cyclogenesis. Euro 12z is about halfway to what I believe will be final verifying central pressure at BM (972). Based on those rather minor adjustments, first call would be 30-40 inches for se NH and coastal ME as well as a few parts of ne MA, generally 20-30 in e MA, trending down to 8-12 in w MA, 6-10 in ALB. Would expect a ribbon of higher amounts also across ne CT towards central LI (15-25) with perhaps 10-18 for PVD and some parts of se MA. Not expecting much mixing with the rate of pressure falls overwhelming frontal advances, possibly ACK changes over briefly. 12-18 for Cape Cod. Wind gusts to 85 mph on exposed coasts. For Canadian side, 75-125 cm (30-50 in) potential for s NB, PEI and inland NS, 20-40 cm coastal NS. Wind gusts to 170 km/hr in the most exposed locations, 140 km/hr more widespread. This would be an extreme weather event for parts of Maine and Atlantic Canada. (specific numbers for later check, BGR 35" PWM 37" CON 29" BOS 24" ORH 20" PVD 14" BDL 12" BDR 7" ISP 16" JFK 5" ALB 6" YHZ 70 cm snow 15 mm mixed, Moncton NB 120 cm, St John NB 90 cm). wow 30-40 here. If it goes as you describe I could see 20ish here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Eduggs, how do you not see this thing being a high impact blizzard for SNE, especially eastern areas, from Cape Ann to Cape Cod. I do see it as a high impact event for coastal MA. But I don't necessarily see it as a huge snow producer, at least compared to recent snowstorms. Right now I think the really big snows are more likely in Maine, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia. But I could see a foot for BOS and surrounding areas easily based off the CMC, Euro, and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 My hunch is that further slowing and deepening will show up in next two runs as much of the surface development is taking place southwest of the ULL over SK-ND at this time. This could tend to consolidate the track as much as 2 deg southwest of depictions and bring the ULL over the coast closer to central NJ than NYC, which could allow both more recurvature and a faster trend of explosive cyclogenesis. Euro 12z is about halfway to what I believe will be final verifying central pressure at BM (972). Based on those rather minor adjustments, first call would be 30-40 inches for se NH and coastal ME as well as a few parts of ne MA, generally 20-30 in e MA, trending down to 8-12 in w MA, 6-10 in ALB. Would expect a ribbon of higher amounts also across ne CT towards central LI (15-25) with perhaps 10-18 for PVD and some parts of se MA. Not expecting much mixing with the rate of pressure falls overwhelming frontal advances, possibly ACK changes over briefly. 12-18 for Cape Cod. Wind gusts to 85 mph on exposed coasts. For Canadian side, 75-125 cm (30-50 in) potential for s NB, PEI and inland NS, 20-40 cm coastal NS. Wind gusts to 170 km/hr in the most exposed locations, 140 km/hr more widespread. This would be an extreme weather event for parts of Maine and Atlantic Canada. (specific numbers for later check, BGR 35" PWM 37" CON 29" BOS 24" ORH 20" PVD 14" BDL 12" BDR 7" ISP 16" JFK 5" ALB 6" YHZ 70 cm snow 15 mm mixed, Moncton NB 120 cm, St John NB 90 cm). swing for the fences much? i wish you the best with your forecast, but i think that many of those are 3-4x reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 How much QPF did euro have in next 20 hours from this waste Agreed. I don't think it means 1.5" of qpf for SNE or anything, but I could see the totals being underdone a bit and model guidance adjsuts up a bit as we get closer. Usually I will say the opposite, but this is an exception. All it would take is for the mid-level center to bomb out just a hair faster and thus enhance the inflow...with the powderkeg that this ULL is, I could easily see that happening. How much QPF did euro have from this "waste" of a storm today for SNE .10 , .15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 How much QPF did euro have in next 20 hours from this waste How much QPF did euro have from this "waste" of a storm today for SNE .10 , .15? Not much, but I didn't include it in my totals for the 2/14-15 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 My hunch is that further slowing and deepening will show up in next two runs as much of the surface development is taking place southwest of the ULL over SK-ND at this time. This could tend to consolidate the track as much as 2 deg southwest of depictions and bring the ULL over the coast closer to central NJ than NYC, which could allow both more recurvature and a faster trend of explosive cyclogenesis. Euro 12z is about halfway to what I believe will be final verifying central pressure at BM (972). Based on those rather minor adjustments, first call would be 30-40 inches for se NH and coastal ME as well as a few parts of ne MA, generally 20-30 in e MA, trending down to 8-12 in w MA, 6-10 in ALB. Would expect a ribbon of higher amounts also across ne CT towards central LI (15-25) with perhaps 10-18 for PVD and some parts of se MA. Not expecting much mixing with the rate of pressure falls overwhelming frontal advances, possibly ACK changes over briefly. 12-18 for Cape Cod. Wind gusts to 85 mph on exposed coasts. For Canadian side, 75-125 cm (30-50 in) potential for s NB, PEI and inland NS, 20-40 cm coastal NS. Wind gusts to 170 km/hr in the most exposed locations, 140 km/hr more widespread. This would be an extreme weather event for parts of Maine and Atlantic Canada. (specific numbers for later check, BGR 35" PWM 37" CON 29" BOS 24" ORH 20" PVD 14" BDL 12" BDR 7" ISP 16" JFK 5" ALB 6" YHZ 70 cm snow 15 mm mixed, Moncton NB 120 cm, St John NB 90 cm). You are fun to read, but really? REALLY? Your first call is for a storm exceeding 3 ft? I hope you are right James....ooops Roger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm trying to figure out what my Ceiling is (EMA/NE MA) IF ML's tighten and deepen faster and that small stall capture is then a tad closer. Seems 1.25-1.30 QPF BOS is possible from a potential perspective. (don't worry not expectations) just want to know what the realistic potential is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You're just a bundle of positivity aren't you. Perhaps Albany will get some snow this year.if I lived in Albany I wouldn't be impressed either....for many reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro is about 0.3"-0.5" of QPF for Connecticut. Not exactly a crusher here. Seems to take a while to get that TROWAL fired up and struggles to get best lift/moisture back this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 I may have been more wrong than Al Gore about global warming. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 How much QPF did euro have in next 20 hours from this waste How much QPF did euro have from this "waste" of a storm today for SNE .10 , .15? About 0.1 to the Pike and east. Doubt it verifies that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Crushed Seasonal snow record falling for LEW this season. It's dryslots world and we are just living it in. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You're just a bundle of positivity aren't you. Perhaps Albany will get some snow this year. I live in the Taconics east of Albany and we have a ton of snow. More than I've seen in years. Mostly the result of -SN, but still a great year. I'm just adding my two cents. Yesterday I argued that the GFS QPF was underdone. Today, the GFS has ramped QPF up a bit. I just wouldn't expect an historic snowstorm. And I don't see a lot of room for this to become a blockbuster. Hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 My hunch is that further slowing and deepening will show up in next two runs as much of the surface development is taking place southwest of the ULL over SK-ND at this time. This could tend to consolidate the track as much as 2 deg southwest of depictions and bring the ULL over the coast closer to central NJ than NYC, which could allow both more recurvature and a faster trend of explosive cyclogenesis. Euro 12z is about halfway to what I believe will be final verifying central pressure at BM (972). Based on those rather minor adjustments, first call would be 30-40 inches for se NH and coastal ME as well as a few parts of ne MA, generally 20-30 in e MA, trending down to 8-12 in w MA, 6-10 in ALB. Would expect a ribbon of higher amounts also across ne CT towards central LI (15-25) with perhaps 10-18 for PVD and some parts of se MA. Not expecting much mixing with the rate of pressure falls overwhelming frontal advances, possibly ACK changes over briefly. 12-18 for Cape Cod. Wind gusts to 85 mph on exposed coasts. For Canadian side, 75-125 cm (30-50 in) potential for s NB, PEI and inland NS, 20-40 cm coastal NS. Wind gusts to 170 km/hr in the most exposed locations, 140 km/hr more widespread. This would be an extreme weather event for parts of Maine and Atlantic Canada. (specific numbers for later check, BGR 35" PWM 37" CON 29" BOS 24" ORH 20" PVD 14" BDL 12" BDR 7" ISP 16" JFK 5" ALB 6" YHZ 70 cm snow 15 mm mixed, Moncton NB 120 cm, St John NB 90 cm). This post is the early clubhouse leader for post of the year right? I hope your right, but when did our expectations turn into the 100 hr storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Any guess of timings of first watches? Do you think they would go to a Winter Storm Watch or a Blizzard Watch for coastal areas? In this afternoons package or first thing tomorrow AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Any guess of timings of first watches? Do you think they would go to a Winter Storm Watch or a Blizzard Watch for coastal areas? In this afternoons package or first thing tomorrow AM? Coastal Maine might go blizzard watches...I'd want more confidence in heavier snowfall rates to go blizzard watch in E MA. The winds will probably be there but you need 1/4 mi vis too which is going to come from the heavy snow rates. But you can probably go another model cycle before hoisting a watch if you wanted to. There's still some differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I may have been more wrong than Al Gore about global warming.Pretty epic Scott Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro is about 0.3"-0.5" of QPF for Connecticut. Not exactly a crusher here. Seems to take a while to get that TROWAL fired up and struggles to get best lift/moisture back this way. We really need the GGEM to be onto something, otherwise it's a flizzard for most of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Coastal Maine might go blizzard watches...I'd want more confidence in heavier snowfall rates to go blizzard watch in E MA. The winds will probably be there but you need 1/4 mi vis too which is going to come from the heavy snow rates. But you can probably go another model cycle before hoisting a watch if you wanted to. There's still some differences. They may go later today in GYX's AFD or wait until the overnight shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We really need the GGEM to be onto something, otherwise it's a flizzard for most of CT.The Euro is 8-12 from BDL east and 4-8 for you. Look at mid levels not actual qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If my memory serves me, Roger was actually pretty close with the blizzard storm a few weeks ago... I do think it was a bit high and these numbers look high by about 33 to 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The Euro is 8-12 from BDL east and 4-8 for you. Look at mid levels not actual qpf So 20+ to 1 ratios. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Roger needs to remember that only a handful of storms in HISTORY have achieved 30-40 inches. History. Recently it seems every potential big storm has people saying 30 or 40 numbers. Thank God we have people like Will to keep us in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The Euro is 8-12 from BDL east and 4-8 for you. Look at mid levels not actual qpf I am looking at mid levels and I like it. But, there are some issues with how quickly it can start the inflow. Right now it looks a little late to get going to crush CT. I think it's 3-6" west of 91 and 5-10" east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This post is the early clubhouse leader for post of the year right? I hope your right, but when did our expectations turn into the 100 hr storm? Just a guess on my part but I think he is basing this on the ULL being further south and west ie. NJ coast and allowing it to bomb sooner? Sound right? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Where did I see these 3 day prior qpf numbers before,I mean 3 times before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Given to everything that's happened over the last two weeks, and the ginormous infrastructural and demographic issues on-going over eastern sections ... comparatively less snow and wind makes for higher than normal impact. Even 4-6" whipped along by frequent gusts to 40mph into a pre-existing 30" snow pack is enough for a high end warning... Folks exhibiting even an iota of disenchantment in how things look ...christ, even if this missed, need help. wow. Anyway, I'd actually be more worried about a heavy southern stream mix p-type signal next week... That could even be a long duration snow for western zones -- or east, depending on how things will correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Given to everything that's happened over the last two weeks, and the ginormous infrastructural and demographic issues on-going over eastern sections ... comparatively less snow and wind makes for higher than normal impact. Even 4-6" whipped along by frequent gusts to 40mph into a pre-existing 30" snow pack is enough for a high end warning... Folks exhibiting even an iota of disenchantment in how things look ...christ, even if this missed, need help. wow. Anyway, I'd actually be more worried about a heavy southern stream mix p-type signal next week... That could even be a long duration snow for western zones -- or east, depending on how things will correct. yeah somebody should start a thread on that one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I may have been more wrong than Al Gore about global warming.Impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 yeah somebody should start a thread on that one.... It's already being discussed in the model thread. Its 5-6 days out, so there's no need for a seperate thread yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.