jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think 12-16" is more likely than 8-12" models will increase QPF parameters for this storm given how strong and dynamic the upper level system is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 FWIW, the GGEM and GFS have all trended to mid-week being more snow than anything else. Sorry for OT mods They always had a nice front end look but now verbatim gfs ticked about 25 miles East so maybe Ray stays all snow (again verbatim) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Vince Wilfork is def pressing on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think 12-16" is more likely than 8-12" models will increase QPF parameters for this storm given how strong and dynamic the upper level system is. Even back in Central and Western MA, CT? Where will the 700mb low pass.... I suppose that will play a role in this, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 LIs continue to demand that this system will become very convective in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 700mb low tracks depend on which guidance you use, they differ from over SNE to just south of Long Island, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Just wait 30 minutes and watch the obsession over a 0.10" change in QPF on the euro. I'm still in the mode of wanting to pin down this ULL track and worry about QPF tomorrow. So ULL track and orientation / as well as Mid level strengthening trends ? Are those what you are looking at from 12z euro (primarily) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Gosh I hope you didn't hear me as favoring HPC over the crew here! I don't take anything seriously unless the mets in the NE thread do. HPC is just a thing I look at. I think when it comes to these storms we have the mets in the world and I am one lucky dude to be allowed to tune in. Did I see a Euro snow map with 18+ over much of ESNE, ECNE and ENNE? Like amounts approaching 3 feet on a 96 hour map? It was on Joe Cioffies fb page Pay attention to the time stamps and valid times. Often their graphics cut storms in two parts (or in half at day 3). If you use their new probability page you can do 48 hour totals or change valid times tom12 or 00z depending on which cycle we're at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS shows 50knot sustained winds at the surface in 72 hours across the Cape and Islands or just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Thundersnows possible between 6z and 12z Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Crickets......the calm before the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 James, just watch your juices . Breath , think of a historic bust, whatever it takes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro rolling out to 15 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I can't think of busts man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 James, just watch your juices . Breath , think of a historic bust, whatever it takes Baseball... I always think of baseball... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Not sure it will make a difference but western ridge amplitude slightly higher this run vs comparable (36 hour vs today 24) last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 I can't think of busts man. Funny, when I think of busts my excitement juices get flowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Blizzard much of eastern MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Funny, when I think of busts my excitement juices get flowing. Blizzard much of eastern MA Yea, that does the trick, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Blizzard much of eastern MA Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ryan tweeted GFS shows gusts to at least 60MPH in HFD Sunday morning..and that it was the weaker of the guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Blizzard much of eastern MA IF you are wrong on pbp, there will a wrath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 IF you are wrong on pbp, there will a wrath I don't think he was giving pbp. I think it's opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ryan tweeted GFS shows gusts to at least 60MPH in HFD Sunday morning..and that it was the weaker of the guidance Deep cold air in place will make this a more efficient wind producer than a typical nor'easter. If you can get the LLJ all the way back to you you'll pound. Otherwise you may have to wait for the backside CAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Deep cold air in place will make this a more efficient wind producer than a typical nor'easter. If you can get the LLJ all the way back to you you'll pound. Otherwise you may have to wait for the backside CAA. I know I hype big wind events ..but man if that kind of wind is that widespread with temps near 0 and snow falling, drifting etc....that is going to be very serious..all joking aside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I don't think he was giving pbp. I think it's opinion. I don't think it is the time for that...while everyone is awaiting PBP of a huge model run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Funny, when I think of busts my excitement juices get flowing. I Hate to admit it but I do the same. It's clearly our defense mechanism when we see things are beyond repair and we turn to Enjoying the epic bust of a potential huge or Historic Storm miss when it could have / should have hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Funny, when I think of busts my excitement juices get flowing. I was thinking the same thing. It would be great if we can get some heavier snows back west. Things are looking more promising than they had been. It's pretty tough to get blizzards out here, so my hopes don't lie there, just provide a few more inches of powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Seems like its time to tune up the generator here with the sounds of those winds. Thats starting to worry me more than the moderate snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I know I hype big wind events ..but man if that kind of wind is that widespread with temps near 0 and snow falling, drifting etc....that is going to be very serious..all joking aside I honestly am wondering if there is a power outage issue with this storm from backside CAA, or if it is just if that LLJ is far enough west for some ones location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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