Zeus Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Matt and I are trying to figure out where to chase....Lakes or this thing...Portland looks good on the GFS, eh? EUro misses east though...ugh I think the next run or two of the Euro get into make-or-break territory. The general tic of the GFS has been in the direction of this potential actually being tapped a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 If you notice, the precip shield is more expansive than the 06z run...even though the 06z run jackpotted BOS...this develops more of a CCB than that run did and swings it northwest a tad. The 06z run was basically a thin band of mod/heavy snow about the width of MA. I'd like it even more if it developed like 50 miles south, but at this point, not too worried about the exact placement. If it goes north, it goes north...so be it. But the more consolidated look coming in a bit shallower I think gives us the best shot at a warning event. Yeah it's more consolidated. I just hope it doesn't become more consolidated, but also more defined in the gulf of maine, rather than say south of ACK. Obviously we are 4 days out, but that's a concern I have. Not that I need to worry..lol, but just discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I think the next run or two of the Euro get into make-or-break territory. The general tic of the GFS has been in the direction of this potential actually being tapped a bit more. If the Euro has it, prep the spare bedroom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah it's more consolidated. I just hope it doesn't become more consolidated, but also more defined in the gulf of maine, rather than say south of ACK. Obviously we are 4 days out, but that's a concern I have. Not that I need to worry..lol, but just discussing. There's probably a legit shot that we miss the best of it and it goes into ME...but again, I'd rather take my chances of a consolidated 500mb low going over CT than one that digs ESE off NJ and never establishes any inflow over SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I wouldn't throw out numbers but suffice to say its a beast no matter the snow totals. Qpf seems light for the dynamics so we will have to see how that plays out but you kind of know the drill on this setupJust seemed like some of the posts thought that it was little to no snow except for NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Matt and I are trying to figure out where to chase....Lakes or this thing...Portland looks good on the GFS, eh? EUro misses east though...ugh I'd wait for 12Z or even 0Z as this seems to still be trending - let it stabilize over a couple of cycles. How about a trip to Portland then hop over to the Tug to get the LE which usually kicks in best a day or two after a storm? Portsmouth NH is also a great little town. Trajectory off the lakes might be too NW for Tug though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 If the Euro has it, prep the spare bedroom. Hah, if the euro has a foot-plus, my apartment may go full-blown hotel. But it's still Valentine's Day so expect the place to shake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 If you notice, the precip shield is more expansive than the 06z run...even though the 06z run jackpotted BOS...this develops more of a CCB than that run did and swings it northwest a tad. The 06z run was basically a thin band of mod/heavy snow about the width of MA. I'd like it even more if it developed like 50 miles south, but at this point, not too worried about the exact placement. If it goes north, it goes north...so be it. But the more consolidated look coming in a bit shallower I think gives us the best shot at a warning event. I agree. 700mb chart suggests QPF could be underdone, which I almost never think is the case. Gonna be tough the further SW you go... unless you get some mesoscale convergence near the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 More like synoptic king. Verbatim a mid level low track like that isn't great for southern and especially SW areas of SNE. As Will mentioned though the specifics don't really matter at this time range. I am looking at the whole picture too, last thing to worry about is JP areas, like I said peeps looking for super jackpots and mega snow totals this isn't your storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Just seemed like some of the posts thought that it was little to no snow except for NNE Nobody said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 There's probably a legit shot that we miss the best of it and it goes into ME...but again, I'd rather take my chances of a consolidated 500mb low going over CT than one that digs ESE off NJ and never establishes any inflow over SNE. Yeah that's the thing. You need it to track closer than what is normally optimal. Hopefully the euro is more consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I am looking at the whole picture too, last thing to worry about is JP areas, like I said peeps looking for super jackpots and mega snow totals this isn't your storm. Glad we have you to look at the big picture! The big picture shows the potential for big cold and some kind of storm on Sunday. Doesn't look like a major event but it could be fun. Not sure why saying a track like the GFS favors northern areas makes me a "QPF queen" but so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This could be quite the high impact event given the intense cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The Euro will more than likely develop that low closer to the benchmark next run. It probably won't make as much of a jump as the GFS, but it will trend in the right direction. I think 0Z will give us better details. The GFS might be too far north with that surface low, but who knows - it's awesome seeing a Low Pressure system in the middle of winter just north of Nantucket with the 850 freezing line 500 miles SE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Not wishing one way or other but just trying to understand. Seeing that Low is directly over CT, where would the ideal spot be for CT to get a big hit? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GGEM looks south of the GFS through 72... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This could be quite the high impact event given the intense cold. Don't often see snow with modeled thickness <500 dm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I agree. 700mb chart suggests QPF could be underdone, which I almost never think is the case. Gonna be tough the further SW you go... unless you get some mesoscale convergence near the ULL. You suggesting this is possible is pretty amazing. Hopefully this is not going to just be wx fantasy for one run and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Not wishing one way or other but just trying to understand. Seeing that Low is directly over CT, where would the ideal spot be for CT to get a big hit? Thanks You'd want it to strengthen quickly south of Block Island/Marthas Vineyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GGEM looks south of the GFS through 72...It goes crazy, that is a BIG snowstorm, I wish it was the Euro showing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GGEM looks south of the GFS through 72... Monster. I don't trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The GGEM has some nice backside energy that swings the s/w out in front closer to CC on this run. Less of a football shape looking s/w running out off of the Delmarva. You don't necessarily want that shape like 00z had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GGEM looks south of the GFS through 72... Looks better then 0z for southern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 You'd want it to strengthen quickly south of Block Island/Marthas Vineyard. Ok...so the current placement isn't so much of an issue but more importantly where it "booms"? Maybe? Kinda? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Glad we have you to look at the big picture! The big picture shows the potential for big cold and some kind of storm on Sunday. Doesn't look like a major event but it could be fun. Not sure why saying a track like the GFS favors northern areas makes me a "QPF queen" but so be it. Lol no no no,that was not directed at you it was more a response to peeps looking at QPF and not the big picture but you are welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 CMC nice hit for SEMA & CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Looks better then 0z for southern areas Better for you too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Ok...so the current placement isn't so much of an issue but more importantly where it "booms"? Maybe? Kinda? lol Also looking at the trends (if any) from run to run For CT it would be better a little south, but rapid intensification is pretty key with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Another south shore jackpot on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'll take the GGEM please but I don't think an evolution like that is the most likely lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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