Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Bufkit is throwing out insane numbers for this in ESNE PYM 22 inches BOS 12 PVD 13 EWB 13 but IJD 5 BED 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 A flair for the dramatic? Sunday morning could be about as wild a morning as we see. 50-60mph with heavy snow back to ALB coming down as fast as the trees are falling from the windsThat kind of talk belongs in the tropics thread..replace snow for rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 06z GEFS @ 90h & 96h. gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_16.png gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_17.png The a track of 93 to 81 to 88 looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 We should have good sampling in about 60 hours lol. This thing tracks straight down from the arctic and over the Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So the GEFS is nicely clustered almost on LI but then slides due east? A hit for NYC and all of SNE - a fast heavy storm. No good though much above NH border I would think. Surprised to see the clustering so tucked in. What? We will be fine based on that clustering in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Bufkit is throwing out insane numbers for this in ESNE PYM 22 inches BOS 12 PVD 13 EWB 13 but IJD 5 BED 6 Is that 06z? While the GFS looks perty, the SLP at 102h is elongated E-W so I'm not sure where the the placement should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This is more about the ULL than any unsampled SW,this is a whole different ballgame than Friday.Beastly Man storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Nice look on the overnight model suite including the Euro....we want the "shallower" look at H5 due to the lack of downstream ridging. Obviously don't want it TOO shallow though. Today's runs are pretty big since we get into that crucial 84h time period...and esp tonight's runs. The next 18 hours will probably decide whether this trending into a legit major storm or it stays more of an advisory type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Is that 06z? While the GFS looks perty, the SLP at 102h is elongated E-W so I'm not sure where the the placement should be.Yes. Don't concentrate on SLP on this one, look at Mids and upper. We haven't had one of these in a while. If you are looking for huge totals and want that only then this ain't your storm,not meaning you Bob, this as depicted is pure mayhem stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yes. Don't concentrate on SLP on this one, look at Mids and upper. We haven't had one of these in a while. If you are looking for huge totals and want that only then this ain't your storm,not meaning you Bob, this as depicted is pure mayhem stuff I am looking at 5h. Looking at the 00z Euro, you notice that piece of vortcity ahead of the main s/w, I'm intrigued to see what role that plays in all this. It shoves the baroclinic zone offshore some and broadens the trough allowing this storm to amplify.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Cruising around looking at some soundings unreal TTs in the 60s , crazy lapse rates, thunder snow, instability maxs. this is what happens when a powerful sub or near 500 5h passes just south of NE, 7h and 8h look just beautiful on the 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This is pretty special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It looks like a beautiful system. I'm not sure what would allow it to come further west. But, that's what was said of the blizzard early on. Of course, it ended up not coming west enough. I'll be watching and lurking, but probably won't clutter up the thread unless I see it coming west or you and others start talking about it having an impact for GC and CNE/NNE.. The mid-level low and even the developing coastal surface low (on recent guidance) are pretty far west. But the strongest baroclinic zone is well out into the Atlantic and this thing is swinging NW to SE... so the momentum is offshore. It's difficult to wrap the precip generating mechanisms back to the west against this momentum. A narrow band of norlun style convergence seems more likely inland to the west. SE areas have a better shot at coastal related precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This is pretty special That image explains the broad SLP representation perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoons56 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Cruising around looking at some soundings unreal TTs in the 60s , crazy lapse rates, thunder snow, instability maxs. this is what happens when a powerful sub or near 500 5h passes just south of NE, 7h and 8h look just beautiful on the 6z GFS Excuse my amateur questions, but what type of conditions would this translate to on the ground? I'm guessing screaming winds and gusts with "squall line" like snow bands of short-lived 2"+ per hour type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Excuse my amateur questions, but what type of conditions would this translate to on the ground? I'm guessing screaming winds and gusts with "squall line" like snow bands of short-lived 2"+ per hour type stuff. whiteout conditions for periods, intense rates. Man looking deeper at this stuff if that setup as depicted happened, Scooter is going to need a snowmobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 scooter land, nothing like going from vrb 2 knots to sustained 25 with whitout conditions. Modeled stuff but as a weenie and a hobbyist thats a beautiful thing. 150215/0900Z 99 VRB02KT 26.1F SNOW 19:1|10.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.550 18:1| 14.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.78 100| 0| 0150215/1200Z 102 34025KT 15.3F SNOW 26:1| 5.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.196 20:1| 19.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.98 100| 0| 0150215/1500Z 105 34020KT 13.9F SNOW 29:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102 20:1| 22.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.08 100| 0| 0150215/1800Z 108 32018KT 4.5F SNOW 18:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 20:1| 22.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.11 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoons56 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 scooter land, nothing like going from vrb 2 knots to sustained 25 with whitout conditions. Modeled stuff but as a weenie and a hobbyist thats a beautiful thing. 150215/0900Z 99 VRB02KT 26.1F SNOW 19:1|10.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.550 18:1| 14.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.78 100| 0| 0 150215/1200Z 102 34025KT 15.3F SNOW 26:1| 5.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.196 20:1| 19.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.98 100| 0| 0 150215/1500Z 105 34020KT 13.9F SNOW 29:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102 20:1| 22.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.08 100| 0| 0 150215/1800Z 108 32018KT 4.5F SNOW 18:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 20:1| 22.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.11 100| 0| 0 A nice little 21.6° temperature drop over 9 hours in snow. Not too shabby haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 We will need a few changes to get some heavier snow, These ENE sliders that go under SNE are not good for snow up here would multiply frustrations greatly. however we are getting a northwest trend a bit it seems. At some point I wonder if we trend enough that we hit the tipping point and get a full on capture? The blizzard was not happening 4 days out and suddenly the tipping point. Might not happen but it really might. My travel plans are waiting for 12Z - do I come home Saturday eve or Wednesday eve, for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GINXY BABY. What about KBOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 What? We will be fine based on that clustering in my opinion Nope. From there we need more ne than ene or e motion. you would be on the edge but perhaps very frustrated, those of us further north wouldn't get too much. Or we'd "congrats Boston" and try to enjoy our 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 would multiply frustrations greatly. however we are getting a northwest trend a bit it seems. At some point I wonder if we trend enough that we hit the tipping point and get a full on capture? The blizzard was not happening 4 days out and suddenly the tipping point. Might not happen but it really might. My travel plans are waiting for 12Z - do I come home Saturday eve or Wednesday eve, for a few days. The real problem is the heights out ahead of the system, I know what i would like to see happen but some others may not be very happy if it does, Even if it digs further south it would just shift everything further south as well and we would still end up with nothing, Unless some things change, Going to be hard to get this to turn the corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 But there is no guarantee that continues. I have tempered expectations right now on this threat. We are nearing that day 4 threshold where we should start seeing some clarity on this. Just looks what happened to Thurs/Fri threat at roughly the same time period. Same here. Seems it's getting more complicated, and that seldom means that potential is increasing. Current solutions, as modeled, may bring mayhem to the cape and se MA, but that's about it. At leas that is my take from a quick glance at things. Maybe I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 The real problem is the heights out ahead of the system, I know what i would like to see happen but some others may not be very happy if it does, Even if it digs further south it would just shift everything further south as well and we would still end up with nothing, Unless some things change, Going to be hard to get this to turn the corner Usually when it gets to the point of having 12 different contingencies, it won't end up being impressive for most...at least from a sensible weather standpoint. Need to tread lightly in my wording here because I sense that I'm about to be ambushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This is pretty special Definitely your favorite word this winter. I think you even used it before one of our rain events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Usually when it gets to the point of having 12 different contingencies, it won't end up being impressive for most...at least from a sensible weather standpoint. Need to tread lightly in my wording here because I sense that I'm about to be ambushed. Well i don't want to start any fires but it has already been mentioned how some don't want to see it trend but i think i would not mind it at all as well as some others, We just will watch how it goes over the next day or two, Its not like we can control where it ends up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Same here. Seems it's getting more complicated, and that seldom means that potential is increasing. Current solutions, as modeled, may bring mayhem to the cape and se MA, but that's about it. At leas that is my take from a quick glance at things. Maybe I'm wrong. And your not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Usually when it gets to the point of having 12 different contingencies, it won't end up being impressive for most...at least from a sensible weather standpoint. Need to tread lightly in my wording here because I sense that I'm about to be ambushed. I'm just looking at it objectively right now.. Not looking at sensible outcome yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 And your not TBH, I think we'd see more mayhem over a larger area from a track over ORH, than the current solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'm just looking at it objectively right now.. Not looking at sensible outcome yet. Not talking about you, Bob. You're usually fair and I know I can go off the deep end...you tend to keep me in check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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