jamesnichols89 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This is getting more and more impressive each run, wouldn't surprise me to actually see modeled results showing a 12-18" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah..it's coming. May not be a monster..but going to b a sizable storm for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Winds and blowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That's a nice trend on the euro and GFS. Couple more ticks west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Wake me up when it starts giving GC more than just a few flakes and a breeze. Eastern winter continues. Awesome for the 'when I was a kid' stories for years to come. 10.8/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah..it's coming. May not be a monster..but going to b a sizable storm for allyou will be impressed, snow cold wind combo is grade A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GC can get it too. I don't like the inv trough look. Hopefully it becomes more concentric. With such strong energy, I can see why it has the instead trough look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 you will be impressed, snow cold wind combo is grade A. Sunday morning could be about as wild a morning as we see. 50-60mph with heavy snow back to ALB coming down as fast as the trees are falling from the winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 looks like possible advisory west and low end warning SE should have a really wintry appeal with the cold and snow. let's see if it kicks back west a little bit for the benefit of all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GC can get it too. I don't like the inv trough look. Hopefully it becomes more concentric. With such strong energy, I can see why it has the instead trough look. It looks like a beautiful system. I'm not sure what would allow it to come further west. But, that's what was said of the blizzard early on. Of course, it ended up not coming west enough. I'll be watching and lurking, but probably won't clutter up the thread unless I see it coming west or you and others start talking about it having an impact for GC and CNE/NNE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Sunday morning could be about as wild a morning as we see. 50-60mph with heavy snow back to ALB coming down as fast as the trees are falling from the winds A flair for the dramatic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It looks like a beautiful system. I'm not sure what would allow it to come further west. But, that's what was said of the blizzard early on. Of course, it ended up not coming west enough. I'll be watching and lurking, but probably won't clutter up the thread unless I see it coming west or you and others start talking about it having an impact for GC and CNE/NNE.. You practically get warning snows on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Nice ticks, now let's see this blow up at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 You practically get warning snows on the GFS. True. But, is there blocking to keep this from sliding east? I'm kind of thinking we're seeing the western edge of the envelope. But what the hell do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 I would be satisfied as is. Snow is 4-8 in CT with blizzard winds and near zero cold. Not so great north of the PikeThankfully it won't verify like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Big snow number continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 06z GEFS @ 90h & 96h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 06z GEFS @ 90h & 96h. gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_16.png gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_17.png Definite shift closer from yesterday's stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 06z GEFS @ 90h & 96h. gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_16.png gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_17.png compared to 0z and 18z. That is what you call a clearly defined trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So the GEFS is nicely clustered almost on LI but then slides due east? A hit for NYC and all of SNE - a fast heavy storm. No good though much above NH border I would think. Surprised to see the clustering so tucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 But there is no guarantee that continues. I have tempered expectations right now on this threat. We are nearing that day 4 threshold where we should start seeing some clarity on this. Just looks what happened to Thurs/Fri threat at roughly the same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 06z GEFS @ 90h & 96h. gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_16.png gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_17.png You know what's interesting too, the ones that are way east at 96 appear to be the less-digging northern members at 90, which would probably still be a smaller event rather than a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 But there is no guarantee that continues. I have tempered expectations right now on this threat. We are nearing that day 4 threshold where we should start seeing some clarity on this. Just looks what happened to Thurs/Fri threat at roughly the same time period.Didn't Thursday only have one really good 18z GFS run? It has trended completely meh, but it was never really hit hard either for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So the GEFS is nicely clustered almost on LI but then slides due east? A hit for NYC and all of SNE - a fast heavy storm. No good though much above NH border I would think. Surprised to see the clustering so tucked in. The mean scoots "east" to a line basically due south of NS and due east of CC at 102h but there are members all over the place with a couple over ME. No need to fret over any particular solution right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yea I 100% agree with Baroclinic Zone here, today's set of model runs are around that range where we start to get an idea if this threat is real or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Being at least 96 hours out from start time, plenty of time for this to become a real big event, especially if it dug further west and got slightly more tilt towards the negative and closed off like southwest of Long Island. So the GEFS is nicely clustered almost on LI but then slides due east? A hit for NYC and all of SNE - a fast heavy storm. No good though much above NH border I would think. Surprised to see the clustering so tucked in. We will need a few changes to get some heavier snow, These ENE sliders that go under SNE are not good for snow up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yea I 100% agree with Baroclinic Zone here, today's set of model runs are around that range where we start to get an idea if this threat is real or not.I just went back and checked your original posts from three days ago when it first started showing up. H5 looks pretty similar without quite as much digging.The storm IS coming. Scoot offshore, glancing blow or direct hit is the question, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Didn't Thursday only have one really good 18z GFS run? It has trended completely meh, but it was never really hit hard either for the most part. Yes, that 18z run was an eye-opener but as we know the storm will end up well a relative "dud". I think a lot of it has to do with data assimilation coming in from sparse areas We see these storms gain traction as the s/w comes onshore in this time frame but than they can trend away as a follow-up s/w acts as a kicker. I've been waiting till day 2-3 to takes these threats serious as of late. Just my opinion on these threats fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I just went back and checked your original posts from three days ago when it first started showing up. H5 looks pretty similar without quite as much digging. The storm IS coming. Scoot offshore, glancing blow or direct hit is the question, I think. I kind of misstated, the wave is 1000% real, the question will become, will we get real CCB snows, inverted trough/norlun types, or will it be too far E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yes, that 18z run was an eye-opener but as we know the storm will end up well a relative "dud". I think a lot of it has to do with data assimilation coming in from sparse areas We see these storms gain traction as the s/w comes onshore in this time frame but than they can trend away as a follow-up s/w acts as a kicker. I've been waiting till day 2-3 to takes these threats serious as of late. Just my opinion on these threats fwiw. Definitely all true. Our Sunday shortwave is still over the arctic ocean as of 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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