Festus Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Some mets seems to be going against modeling on this. A lot of gut feelings it seems. Kinda odd... I think that's what makes a good meteorologist. Otherwise forecasting would be only an admin task of model regurgitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 a few inches of snow before it starts to rain is not going to be pretty... I already have parts of my yard starting to show grass again which is why being on a south facing hill sucks when you like snow cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Very light snow starting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Just jumped to 33 here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I have pretty much thrown in the towel on this one.... im up to 31 already here....what looked like the biggest snowfall for the season for me 2 days ago has turned into a big disappointment....oh well such is life as a weather hobbyist. It is freakin unbelievable....I give up. Enjoy the light snow now. Probably will be rain by the super bowl. Disgusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 29/22 here in Millersville. The cold air looks to be no match for WAA. I'd rather it be dry than icy so everyone to my north can have the mess. For those getting snow, I really hope the temps don't ruin it. "WAA waits for no one" - Eric Horst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wmsptwx Your call might very well pan out. It just struck me funny your call was more conservative than 16's I am gonna say that my predication is the Port will get 8" of snow. And to everyone who is in the screw zone I'm sorry!!! It just seems like we can't have a storm where the models aren't somewhat struggling with some aspect of the storm. NWS is doing a good job and they have had 5-6 map changes. Good Luck everyone!! Still more storms on the horizon... Voyager I like your maps!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yeah that WAA ahead of system has rooted out the cold. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Going to go with 3-6" changing to slop for W-B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 My guess: MDT: 1.25" + .2" zr CTP: 5" LNS: 1" + .1" zr W-B: 5.5" ITP: 9.5" I'm rooting for rain and a flash flood watch at this point. If we couldn't get a decent clean snowstorm out of this setup I'd rather not have to ruin anyone's plans today or delay work tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 At this point, I just want it to change to rain and not freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Steadier but still very light snow here, 27/19. Looks like there's a half decent band of snow west of Altoona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'll have my map out around noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I was just going to ask, MAG, what are your thoughts since I'm already up to 35 (yes 35) degrees here in Tamaqua? It seems like it would at least take the threat of any significant icing off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Voyager, I don't know what's going on down there but we're only ~25 here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 According to Joe Bastardi, he still thinks the models might be struggling with Where the storm jumps to once it approaches souther OH area. He thinks the storm will find the warm air and true boundary, which he says could be further south near the Delaware Bay, which would keep colder air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Voyager, I don't know what's going on down there but we're only ~25 here... I don't either, but if you look at my sig, that station is about a half mile from my location and it's showing 32-33 degrees as well. Other Schuylkill County locations such as Auburn, Port Carbon, Schuylkill Haven, and Pottsville are also running 32-34 degrees. http://classic.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=18252 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm at 32. Hanover reported 34 around 9am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 34/18 at the closest weather station. 30/17 at Capital City Airport. 28/17 at MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It is doomsday in here but understandably we went from a PA "special" to slop. Correct me if I am wrong surface temps shouldn't prevent onset of snow for most column should be cold enough at least in the beginning here is hoping for 3" and mostly frozen after that I don't want a wash away event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Gfs is warm blech lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Don't worry guys, later in the week we could watch a coastal low fringe us if the UK and CMC have any idea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Already 36 here in Lemoyne. Ouch. At this point is it even going to snow at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Don't worry guys, later in the week we could watch a coastal low fringe us if the UK and CMC have any idea! This storm jumped north like 250 miles in 36 hours. That one might end as a hurricane in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 My call is looking solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 36 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Up to 35 here in Millersville now. Toasty So much for models under doing cold that I mentioned yesterday. This is an onslaught of warm air out ahead of the main area of low pressure. Even the great snow out in Illinois is falling at temperatures at or near freezing. Cold air behind the system does mean business though. Crashing temps on the NW quadrant on the low into the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 CTPs not giving up yet... WITH EACH PASSING MODEL CYCLE IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET LESS SNOW ON THE WHOLE...WHETHER DUE TO LOWER QPF DUE TO ONLY A COUPLE OF HEAVIER BANDS AND PERHAPS ONLY ONE 3-6 HR PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW - OR DUE TO MORE RAIN/MIX OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT HAS BARELY STARTED SNOWING. LETS AT LEAST LET IT START TO PLAY OUT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY TWEAKS TO SNOW OR ICE ACCUMS OR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. BUT THE LATER UPDATES TODAY MAY JUST FOLLOW THIS MILDER/DRIER TREND IF THE NEWER GFS AND EC LOOK SIMILARLY MILD AND LESS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 39.2 here. Might open the pool if temps keep climbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Winter 2014/2015 will go down as the biggest tease ever. It's like we got friend-zoned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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