Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z GFS. Can't really complain about what it's showing. I guess now it's the long wait until the 0z Euro to see where we stand. If the Euro is similar to 12z, and supports the GFS, then I'd say the NAM may have been out ot lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z RGEM is still on the warmer end of guidance. Switches many to plain rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Eric Horst is 2-5". DT's call is a joke, I ignore it. Horst is 3"-6" for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z RGEM is still on the warmer end of guidance. Switches many to plain rain? Wonder what exactly it's seeing...with a track south of the M/D line it should not be liquid to 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Does anyone else hate how this new "upgraded" GFS downlopes some areas unrealistically? Look at the 12"+ spots in NEPA and then the >6" spots right next to it. yeah, I don't know about the "elevation" thing on the gfs. seems to way over exaggerate differences in snow amounts based on topography. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z GFS. Can't really complain about what it's showing. I guess now it's the long wait until the 0z Euro to see where we stand. If the Euro is similar to 12z, and supports the GFS, then I'd say the NAM may have been out ot lunch. 18z GFS.jpg Thats 6" here can't complain either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Does anyone else hate how this new "upgraded" GFS downlopes some areas unrealistically? Look at the 12"+ spots in NEPA and then the 6>" spots right next to it. Yeah I've noticed that it tends to give the mountains east of State College like double the snowfall, and shadows the west branch valley way more than reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Eric Horst is 2-5". DT's call is a joke, I ignore it.And yet another EPAWA 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Apparently we get a good front end thump on the GFS as the 850 zero line is almost to the NY State border at hr42 and hr45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gut feel, we all get more snow than the models show and someone ends up with a fairly bad ice event. The CAD is usually relatively under estimated in NC and even Mid to lower Susq. valley. I really don't think we will see a significant ice event over any kind of widespread area (warning criteria).. or significant rainfall for that matter for folks that end up with plain rain in the end. The farther north the low tracks, the farther north the primary precip shield sets up. This isn't say.. your standard low coming up out of the Gulf region that cuts west of PA and yanks an intense southerly push aloft on top of a strong CAD setup at the surface, this is more of a gradient type storm track that runs largely latitudinal (West to East). The best forcing and best precip will be north of the surface low. If the surface low runs into PA, the southern half to 2/3s of the state where ice might occur is probably not going to get the best QPF.. probably getting primarily frozen on the front end before tapering as the low approaches. This ordeal is likely not going to be any kind of resolved until go time, as just a minor shift back towards the PA/MD border in the northern guidance would solidify I-80 north into the axis of heaviest snow. The central counties between the turnpike and 80 usually fight the good fight better than modeled with these imminent snow->mix scenarios, and if the heavier precip is there for the Susquehanna Valley early on.. they will get a good front thump. There's also the question of how fast the low transfers and where. Always a ridiculously complicated scenario for us. I don't know if I've seen a worse winter for short term forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 And yet another EPAWA 3-5" Have no fear, someone in Mid-Atlantic earlier posted an S&S map that had the entire LSV in 4-8. I thought S&S died as a result of the previous debacle? Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Can anyone look at the radar and compare to the GFS - am I crazy or is the GFS a decent bit north of current radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Can anyone look at the radar and compare to the GFS - am I crazy or is the GFS a decent bit north of current radar? Earlier this afternoon I thought it was almost dead on with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NWS must be liking it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 That's actually cut back a bit, earlier the 10 to 14 was almost to 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Have no fear, someone in Mid-Atlantic earlier posted an S&S map that had the entire LSV in 4-8. I thought S&S died as a result of the previous debacle? HahaEven better ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 20/6 currently Snowpack + calm winds + clear skies = cold Longer we stay clear tonight can only help the cause Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Already down to 14 degrees at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 That's actually cut back a bit, earlier the 10 to 14 was almost to 80. Missed that one. I was gone all afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 25/6 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 What worries me is the low on Monday night of zero with the wind what ever falls will be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Have no fear, someone in Mid-Atlantic earlier posted an S&S map that had the entire LSV in 4-8. I thought S&S died as a result of the previous debacle? HahaThanks MAG it is LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Forecast from WTAJ & WJAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lost 3 degrees the past 30 min 17/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Forecast from WTAJ & WJAC Not a bad call for the local viewing areas for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Not a bad call for the local viewing areas for now. Are you going to put out a map mag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 OT - you can get google earth pro free from here if interested. http://slickdeals.net/f/7633002-google-earth-pro-license-key-digital-download-free figured it may come in handy for some on here? Ok - now back to your regular programing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 0z Nam looks colder to me at 30 and 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlleghanyBlade Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 With the way the models are performing, Mag might want to wait until after the storm to put out a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nam colder but also dry. Has State College in .25 to .50 it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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