AllWeather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Here's ours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 What's the main precip type once changeover down this way? An all snow storm has faded but a period of ip and zr with temps dropping behind storm could be a high impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 My spider sense tells me a south correction will be in store for 12z. Please be right, Mr. Spider Sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Boooo needs moar snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Is the NAM slightly south or am I just seeing what I want to see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I read it might be 20 or so miles south. Philly thread burg guys said it looks like a potential nasty ice storm out there way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Good call Allweather! You not thinking much south movement? Here are the Nams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Like 0z to 6z, there's maybe a slight tick south going from 6z to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Good call Allweather! You not thinking much south movement? Here are the Nams I think the writing is on the wall for this one. Even with a southern tick, southern counties of PA will have some mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I know JM was pointing this feature out, so I'll note it - on this run, the 850 low seems weaker and less defined (just a broad 132dm isobar instead of a closed 129/126)...don't know if that will ultimately mean anything, but pointing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Tough one to swallow how cold it is right now just got to hope we at least stay frozen for most of the duration now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Tough one to swallow how cold it is right now just got to hope we at least stay frozen for most of the duration now. Add to that how cold it will be AFTER the storm and it makes it even tougher to swallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Add to that how cold it will be AFTER the storm and it makes it even tougher to swallow. Well, to put a positive spin on that, the snowpack won't be going anywhere for a while...though YMMV as to if that's good or bad. -shrugs- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Is the NAM slightly south or am I just seeing what I want to see? It's definitely ticked south. Perhaps 20 to 30 miles with the band of heaviest snow. Helps UNV and IPT a good deal. Do that again with the 18Z run and the 00Z run... Honestly, I am waiting for the Euro. The 00Z run had 100% of its 50 ensemble members with 100% snow for UNV. Ensemble mean of 8.1" at 10:1. I am not too worried about my backyard so long as the Euro hasn't caved. Even the American models show mostly snow with 850s only approaching freezing or above when the dry slot passes nearby. A little freezing drizzle on top of a 15 to 20" snow pack is no big deal. Maybe someone could correct me if I am wrong, but aren't all the SREFs and the NAMs based on the new hi-res GFS forecasted boundary conditions? I don't know if I'd trust any American model until we figure out how the new GFS thinks. The 0Z Euro evolution makes a lot of sense to me with its Miller B transfer of energy off shore. Because of this transfer, the Euro never lets the 850 temperatures rise above -5C or so at UNV. And the extreme southern tier only barely gets above freezing for one frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm going to ignore the NAM and SREFs for now... So basically, from the 00z suite, we have the Euro and Canadian vs. the GFS and UKMET. Hopefully the 12z suite has the GFS and UKMET trending towards the Euro and Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z NAM. Definitely better for the northern tier compared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Add to that how cold it will be AFTER the storm and it makes it even tougher to swallow.Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm going to ignore the NAM and SREFs for now... So basically, from the 00z suite, we have the Euro and Canadian vs. the GFS and UKMET. Hopefully the 12z suite has the GFS and UKMET trending towards the Euro and Canadian. I hereby renounce my citizenship. There. That should do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm going to ignore the NAM and SREFs for now... So basically, from the 00z suite, we have the Euro and Canadian vs. the GFS and UKMET. Hopefully the 12z suite has the GFS and UKMET trending towards the Euro and Canadian. Unfortunately this isn't happening...RGEM jumped north and it looks like the GFS will too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Unfortunately this isn't happening...RGEM jumped north and it looks like the GFS will too. I haven't seen the Canadian yet, but so far the GFS does look like it's going to be warmer. The storm is stronger and further west. EDIT: Warm and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Don't look at the 12z GFS if you like frozen precip in the LSV, cause there hardly is any. Terrible, awful run. I guess COA could see major ice if CAD plays. Storm cancel? F'n amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gotta wait for Euro before totally bailing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gotta wait for Euro before totally bailing. ^^^ If Euro holds serve, then at least we have a major model showdown with just 24 hours to go. Still, near I-80 and northward, GFS and RGEM are delivering a significant 6-8" front-end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Way too soon to give up. The Euro and its ensembles looked good last night. This isn't some coastal with a precip cutoff situation. There is a ton of cold air in place-it's 21 where I sit now, Plus there is pressing cold air coming in to the storm. This isn't some cutter heading to Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Few things are more demoralizing as a weather hobbyist than a winter storm watch that becomes a winter weather advisory. But that appears to be our fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Zoomed in county maps of NAM and GFS still show around 5 inches near MDT, with a few inches more just to the north. It won't take much of a shift south with the track, say just 50 miles, to make this much better for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Zoomed in county maps of NAM and GFS still show around 5 inches near MDT, with a few inches more just to the north. It won't take much of a shift south with the track, say just 50 miles, to make this much better for the LSV. If ever we have believed in the difference 50 miles makes, we just had a perfect example last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The problem is that i think the storm last week was a lot more volatile - rapidly deepening storm where timing of a closed 500mb low changed the track. Not sure that there is any feature to this where a big shift would occur. We can all dream of HP pressing down, snow pack in place, and an energy tranfer. But that might be weenie dreams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Updated CTP snow map reflects the model shifts...trimmed amounts down in the far south while showing a solid area of 8+ mainly north of 80. The 6-8 call for here seems solid--if the north trend ends now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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