meteo Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Im up to 25 from 18 in just 5 hours time...I guess this warming is starting at the surface already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The nam gives MDT almost 1/4" zr. Holy moly please be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So much for BGM being conservative... Sunday Snow likely, mainly after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Sunday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Light east wind increasing to 5 to 9 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 8 inches. Monday Snow, freezing rain, and sleet, becoming all snow after noon. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Wind chill values as low as -1. East wind 6 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of around 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I saw that. that is them being conservative. I haven't looked at qpf yet, any ideas on how much? bgm says the are going with a ratio of 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I find the warmup really hard to believe, especially here in the valley. The warmup seems to be under way already. When I went to bed at 10pm last night it was 14 degrees. At midnight it must have gone up to 16 because that's my low for today (Sunday), and now, upon getting up this morning, I'm all the way up to a toasty 26 degrees at 5:30am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The warmup seems to be under way already. When I went to bed at 10pm last night it was 14 degrees. At midnight it must have gone up to 16 because that's my low for today (Sunday), and now, upon getting up this morning, I'm all the way up to a toasty 26 degrees at 5:30am. Temp 17; DP 9 here in York County... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Not much in the way of virga either this morning, at least not in western PA. Light snow showing on radar and those under are reporting snow. Air must be quite saturated, so I suppose we don't even get much in the way of radiational cooling with this one... REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUPNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA500 AM EST SUN FEB 01 2015CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKSERIE CLOUDY 29 21 72 CALM 30.16FMEADVILLE LGT SNOW 25 19 78 S5 30.12SFRANKLIN* CLOUDY 25 16 68 SW6 30.14SNEW CASTLE LGT SNOW 26 24 92 CALM 30.17F FOGBEAVER COUNTY NOT AVBLBUTLER* CLOUDY 25 21 86 S3 30.17FPITTSBURGH INT LGT SNOW 28 22 78 S3 30.16FPITTSBURGH LGT SNOW 26 15 63 S7 30.16SINDIANA* CLOUDY 25 19 80 SW6 30.20SLATROBE MIX PCPN 28 21 74 S8 30.20SWASHINGTON CO* CLOUDY 27 23 86 S3 30.19S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looking at soundings for the NAM and GFS, on the NAM, my specific location is SO CLOSE to being an all snow event with the 850's just barely getting above 0c at hr27 through hr33. The GFS on the other hand torches, and at hr30 all levels from 850 on down to the surface are above 0c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like NWS made another change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I think CTP is going to have a hard time verifying their first few tiers of warnings. Unless there's 0.25" of ice, the criteria won't be met from snow according to their snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I think CTP is going to have a hard time verifying their first few tiers of warnings. Unless there's 0.25" of ice, the criteria won't be met from snow according to their snowfall map. Although not worded as such, as they mention advisory criteria, the morning AFD hints at this... WHILE THE FARTHER NORTH/WARMER SOLUTION WILL CUT DOWN THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL ZONES...WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ADVY AND SUB ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PA... BUT THE CHANCE FOR ICING IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST AN ADVY FOR THEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Snow reaching the ground in western PA and as far east as DuBois per regional observations. Radar looks impressive at the moment. I wonder if this thing gets going a little earlier than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Flurries in Lancaster Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Few flakes here as well, according to CTP the main event is still looking to come in well after noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yeah I didn't think it was suppose to start until around 1:00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Up to 27 here currently. I didn't expect to warm so quickly. I fully thought I'd be in the mid to upper teens at this point in time. I'm wondering though if temps will hold for most of the day or if they will continue to rise. If they continue to rise, I think the 6-8 that CTP is showing for me locally, might be toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like NWS made another change. Seems pretty reasonable. I think a Euro-like solution would be just about the upper limit here. There should be a nice burst of snow as the warm front moves through PA later tonight, before transitioning to IP/ZR. Snow growth looks pretty good into this evening, with the greatest forcing near the DGZ. As we get into the heavier precip and temperatures warm, there will probably be some large, wet aggregates, decreasing snow-liquid ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Now up to 28...oy vey... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteo Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I have pretty much thrown in the towel on this one.... im up to 31 already here....what looked like the biggest snowfall for the season for me 2 days ago has turned into a big disappointment....oh well such is life as a weather hobbyist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like a lot of moisture. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 I really hope it just rains at this point. This is messing with a lot of people's super bowl plans and for what? An inch of snow and slop? Just rain please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Up 4 degrees to 25 since 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Holy crap. Just jumped up to 30 dgrees already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Final call: AVP: 3 to 5 IPT: 2 to 4 UNV: 1 to 3 MDT: 1 to 2 LNS: Less than 1 Just going with trend of warmer and less precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm thinking 1-3 or 2-4 for my area, then slop, then concrete tomorrow morning...ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Sun's out in york Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Final call: AVP: 3 to 5 IPT: 2 to 4 UNV: 1 to 3 MDT: 1 to 2 LNS: Less than 1 Just going with trend of warmer and less precip. Gee even Tom Clark is calling for more than that. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 CTPs latest map update is the first time they've bumped up totals for the central third of the area in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 12z NAM, for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Some mets seems to be going against modeling on this. A lot of gut feelings it seems. Kinda odd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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