MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 RAP has been pretty solidly showing this type of a snow map all afternoon. I'd offer up HRRR's take but it has been acting up more often than not since yesterday on the NOAA website. I really don't know why you guys north and northeast are so down on this snow, chances are places like IPT and AVP are probably gonna end up with at least 5-6 inches of snow before we run into any temp (or QPF) issues later in the storm. 850 temps are still below freezing everywhere in PA (and well below freezing toward NE PA). 925 temps are also solidly below freezing in most of the state, with above zero just starting to intrude into the SW corner. Surface temps will correct in most of eastern Penn when heavier precip arrives... but the far southern tier might not end up with alot of QPF to build up any frozen on the front end. The top end of this storm's accum potential where it's all snow doesn't look as potent in this region (Northern Penn and Upstate NY) as it does in the Chicago region and in that part of the midwest. I don't think we'll see alot of amounts over 10" in aforementioned northern PA/NY regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Temps doing fine, snow sticking to everything, however radar upstream looks pretty bad. CTP has been mentioning and accounting for a probable lull in precipitation in their AFD this afternoon. .SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...THE BEST PERIOD OF SNOW CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE BETWEEN 00-09Z WITH THE WORST OF IT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. THE WARM AIR ALOFT LOOKS TO MAKE IN-ROADS ALL THE WAY TO I-80 BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THUS...THE ICING POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE. SO WHILE THE SNOW AMOUNTS - ESPECIALLY IF YOU ONLY MEASURE IN THE MORNING - WILL BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED IN THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA...THERE IS STILL SOME /WEAK/ JUSTIFICATION FOR HOLDING ONTO THE WARNING ALONG THE RTE 22 CORRIDOR...FOR NOW. THE QPF IS A MIXED-BAG OF SIGNALS RIGHT NOW. GFS AND EURO ARE HOLDING ONTO 0.80 OR MORE IN THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY REAL SNOW THERE. THE NAM AND THE SREF MEAN TOTALS THERE ARE ONLY ABOUT 0.50. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PARTY LINE OF 8-10 FOR A STORM TOTAL...BUT REWORKED THE NUMBERS DOWN BARELY AN INCH ON THE WHOLE SO THE TERRIBLE DARK BLUE OF 10-14 DOES NOT HIT PEOPLE IN THE FACE. AGAIN...JUST HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF A DOWNWARD MOVE ON THE SNOW. THIS IS DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE. STILL LOOKS LIKE A SOLID WARNING ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT UP FOR OUR ENTIRE NRN HALF. SOME PRETTY WICKED SF RATES WILL BE HAD OVERNIGHT AND VERY EARLY MONDAY IN THE NORTH AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS STATE COLLEGE AND SUNBURY BUT MOST LIKELY - THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THOSE TWO CITIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Bordering on heavy snow now in Bellefonte. Gonna enjoy every bit of snow that falls before the early morning hours. I still think 6" is doable here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Up to 1.8" now for the storm so far, moderate snow continues. Temp 29F. Gonna be hitting up a super bowl party for a bit this evening, so probably won't be saying too much for awhile. Still couldn't resolve the issues with the software I use to generate my map, so I direct you to my earlier post with the rough accum layout. Well it figures that I would go to generate the numbers to display on my map and I keep getting an error preventing me from doing so, so while if see if I can resolve it before the darn storm is well on it's way (and it's already been snowing here), I'm going to have to give a general take of what it was gonna show. 6-12" above I-80 statewide using a 12:1 ratio (raw generated numbers had a max of of about 10"). Obviously amounts will be low side of the range near I-80 and increase north. 4-7ish using (10:1) in the central counties between I-80 and the US 22 corridor... and between I-80 and I-78 in eastern Penn. 2-4" inches using mostly 8:1 running the turnpike corridor and a bit south of it in central/eastern PA (KAOO, KMDT, Lancaster, York, etc.) 1-2" using (8:1) near the MD border in Central/Eastern PA (SE PA in the Philly region as well) T-2" in SW PA, 2-4" in the Pittsburgh metro (generally 2 or so in the southern burbs and downtown and up to 4 in the northern burbs). Thats the rough take, now let me see if I can get my map to work haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Well...wow...I've got heavy snow here all of the sudden. Temp dropped from 36.0 down to 32.7. Getting just a tad exciting here for now. Radar looks pretty solid going westbound. Already have a small coating on everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Mod snow in hbg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 33 with moderate snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Very light, almost pixie dust (when isn't it) snow here. Can't remember the last time I saw decent, normal sized flakes during an actual storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Well that didn't take long. I'm down to 31.4. After a really nice period of big wet flakes it has lightened up a bit to moderate. My board has around 0.3" of accumulation. No accumulations on my street yet, but on the cars and sidewalks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Snow flakes almost remind of the event last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ So it appears the low is currently over east-central ohio. What direction is it moving? When will we know if the transfer to the coast is occurring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I must say that I'm impressed with how quickly the temp dropped once the snow started to come down. Down 8 degrees in 90 minutes. 31 with light snow in Lemoyne. Not sticking to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So it appears the low is currently over east-central ohio. What direction is it moving? When will we know if the transfer to the coast is occurring? http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_3pres.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_3pres.gif Careful with those maps...it's a common misconception that the highest pressure falls show the position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I must say that I'm impressed with how quickly the temp dropped once the snow started to come down. Down 8 degrees in 90 minutes. 31 with light snow in Lemoyne. Not sticking to anything.Really? In midtown it's covering my sidewalks and street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Careful with those maps...it's a common misconception that the highest pressure falls show the position. Right does not show exact track but gives an idea of general possible movement/development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Look at the initial slug of moisture dry up over the I-81 corridor. Amazing how this happens every time... http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/weather-radar?play=true http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USNY0124&animate=true http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/northeast_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Man those temps dropped fast in lsv after the snow started. Went from 37 to 32 in just under over an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Have around 100% snow cover in my back yard by the woods while the front of the property is spotty around 50%. Most of the snow cover in the valley and looking south has disappeared. Photos courtesy of a drone. 36 degrees here and doing nothing. We had some flurries earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Another view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Really? In midtown it's covering my sidewalks and street. It figures now that I don't live in midtown anymore. Sidewalk and street just wet. Snow has stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Have around 100% snow cover in my back yard by the woods while the front of the property is spotty around 50%. Most of the snow cover in the valley and looking south has disappeared. Photos courtesy of a drone. 36 degrees here and doing nothing. We had some flurries earlier. No bare spots here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like we're nearing that lull CTP and the mets here talked about. Radar seems to be filling in a bit around Pittsburgh...although I definitely wouldn't mind the returns shifting 100 miles to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarks green snow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Light snow starting to stick and down to 26 up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 -SN...hoping for a 4-6" deal and then maybe precip lightens or shuts off before the taint begins in earnest. MAG I still see you around. I know you poked at us NEPA people before...I just don't know with how far north this has come and the fact that SWFEs tend to verify even more north than modeling. Everything has us changing to rain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 North of scranton should be snow with a little sleet or frz rain especially elevations over 1100 or 1200 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 1.5" so far (not counting what melted earlier) In the lull right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Roads are nasty here, looks like they flash froze with a bit of snow on top. Lots of flashing hazards out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I can confirm roads are nearly impassable with ice/snow....very icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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