Voyager Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It's funny. Surface temps are way above forecast in some locations, yet the snow totals are bumping slowly back southward. 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I wonder if the models are looking at backend snows...not that I'd trust them. The last, and really only, time I can recall those working out here was the Valentine's Day storm in 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It's funny. Surface temps are way above forecast in some locations, yet the snow totals are bumping slowly back southward. 12z GFS 12z GFS.jpg I think regardless of surface temps now there could be a really nice front end dump for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Guys don't forget about the wet bulbing process. Sitting at 25.9 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I think regardless of surface temps now there could be a really nice front end dump for many. I wouldn't be surprised to see a solid 4-5" here, and as MAGs been harping on we get dry slotted due to the more northerly track, and end up with just freezing drizzle for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I wouldn't be surprised to see a solid 4-5" here, and as MAGs been harping on we get dry slotted due to the more northerly track, and end up with just freezing drizzle for a while. That does tend to happen with these types...and honestly, I'd be happy if it played out like that at this point. +SN -> -IP/[FZ]DZ is way better than soaking rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 And another change. At least they are keeping after it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The bigger change is down here they capped zr at .1 instead of the .25 they had. Flipping to plain rain will be welcomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Any obs from out in western counties? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Any obs from out in western counties?Maybe .25" with a temp of 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen16226 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Any obs from out in western counties? I'm in Armstrong County (Ford City). It's was a very light snow since about 7 this morning and the past half hour it has picked up a little bit. We have 1 inch fresh and it is 27 out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The very light snow here hasn't been doing much but making the snowbanks on the roadsides slightly less brown. At least if it's melting on contact it's helping us stay below freezing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 OK time to drink and focus on the Super Bowl lol, hope we all get something, but have my expectations low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 OK time to drink and focus on the Super Bowl lol, hope we all get something, but have my expectations low. So your enthusiasm for this storm is similar to a Patriots football...deflated??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Hahaha indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Agreed time to drink have radar and precip type hallucinations good luck all hope for the best! Cheering for the Cowboys and an all out snowstorm today as I live in fantasy land :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Agreed time to drink have radar and precip type hallucinations good luck all hope for the best! Cheering for the Cowboys and an all out snowstorm today as I live in fantasy land :-) I'm going to cheer for the Eagles as I watch the 2.5 feet of snow pile up outside my window. How's that for fantasyland...lmao! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Cowboys?? Thought Red Sox was playing Snow flurries here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm going to cheer for the Eagles as I watch the 2.5 feet of snow pile up outside my window. How's that for fantasyland...lmao! Haha love it! At least we can fanatize an all out blizzard mark this down 20-26 will be on Mexico guaranteed you guys cash in on snow then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Lol I'll be having hallucinations on the radar by 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'll have my map out around noon. Mag I smell smoke. That map is not an easy one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Cowboys?? Thought Red Sox was playing Snow flurries here now. Yep they can be too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Mag I smell smoke. That map is not an easy one. Might just have wanted to get one more euro run in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Lol if I were mag I would just can the map, this storms gone about as well as the Hindenburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Lol if I were mag I would just can the map, this storms gone about as well as the Hindenburg. lol isn't the truth.. Good call Itunis I didn't think of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Well it figures that I would go to generate the numbers to display on my map and I keep getting an error preventing me from doing so, so while if see if I can resolve it before the darn storm is well on it's way (and it's already been snowing here), I'm going to have to give a general take of what it was gonna show. 6-12" above I-80 statewide using a 12:1 ratio (raw generated numbers had a max of of about 10"). Obviously amounts will be low side of the range near I-80 and increase north. 4-7ish using (10:1) in the central counties between I-80 and the US 22 corridor... and between I-80 and I-78 in eastern Penn. 2-4" inches using mostly 8:1 running the turnpike corridor and a bit south of it in central/eastern PA (KAOO, KMDT, Lancaster, York, etc.) 1-2" using (8:1) near the MD border in Central/Eastern PA (SE PA in the Philly region as well) T-2" in SW PA, 2-4" in the Pittsburgh metro (generally 2 or so in the southern burbs and downtown and up to 4 in the northern burbs). Thats the rough take, now let me see if I can get my map to work haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Well it figures that I would go to generate the numbers to display on my map and I keep getting an error preventing me from doing so, so while if see if I can resolve it before the darn storm is well on it's way (and it's already been snowing here), I'm going to have to give a general take of what it was gonna show. 6-12" above I-80 statewide using a 12:1 ratio (raw generated numbers had a max of of about 10"). Obviously amounts will be low side of the range near I-80 and increase north. 4-7ish using (10:1) in the central counties between I-80 and the US 22 corridor... and between I-80 and I-78 in eastern Penn. 2-4" inches using mostly 8:1 running the turnpike corridor and a bit south of it in central/eastern PA (KAOO, KMDT, Lancaster, York, etc.) 1-2" using (8:1) near the MD border in Central/Eastern PA (SE PA in the Philly region as well) T-2" in SW PA, 2-4" in the Pittsburgh metro (generally 2 or so in the southern burbs and downtown and up to 4 in the northern burbs). Thats the rough take, now let me see if I can get my map to work haha. Good stuff Mag! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro is even further north FWIW. I get about 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro is even further north FWIW. I get about 3 inches. I just read 2-4" in New York City in their subforum. You are inland and higher in latitude (slightly), and you say it only gives you 3"? Something doesn't add up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks good Mag. This storm even your map is having problems generating numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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