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Atomixwx

Central PA & the fringes - January 2015 Part III

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GFS at hour 60 has 996 low over.. lets say Frederick, MD. Pretty much same as 18z, it's a mason dixon runner. Some mixing likely below the turnpike as 850 0ºC line pokes up to roughly that corridor. Hour 54 was indicating a decent front thump for about all of the Sus Valley.

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Anyone reading the Mid Atlantic forum this evening? There's some sig worthy posts in there this evening... :lol:

 

Anyway, from the sound of it, the GFS might still be good for some of us.

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GFS at hour 60 has 996 low over.. lets say Frederick, MD. Pretty much same as 18z, it's a mason dixon runner. Some mixing likely below the turnpike as 850 0ºC line pokes up to roughly that corridor. Hour 54 was indicating a decent front thump for about all of the Sus Valley.

Thanks Mag colder again 60 to 63 crashes 0c line I 80 north looking good but feel we get a good thump before a mix

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Personally, I don't think our mood swings today can even compare to those of the midatlantic and nyc subforums.  The older I get the easier it gets to exercise restraint in the expectations until like 24 hours out.  We all know how much the models vacillate.  And even if this one doesn't deliver the 12" amounts from earlier today, the pattern we are in should produce quite a few more substantial opportunities.  We're entering February, the snowiest month of the year.  Odds are in our favor at least for the next 2 weeks.

 

That having been said, it sure would be nice if the ECM holds serve, or even the GFS for that matter.  As for the NAM.....throw it out!!

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Anyone reading the Mid Atlantic forum this evening? There's some sig worthy posts in there this evening... :lol:

 

Anyway, from the sound of it, the GFS might still be good for some of us.

Still takes the low under the Mason-Dixon line...would be mixing south of Rt 22, probably ok up near I-80.  If the I-80 corridor could stay all snow that's a nice 8-12" event.

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Yeah, 00z GFS at 850 is ostensibly the same as the 18z, even though the surface low is a bit stronger (though its track is essentially unchanged).

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Still takes the low under the Mason-Dixon line...would be mixing south of Rt 22, probably ok up near I-80.  If the I-80 corridor could stay all snow that's a nice 8-12" event.

The 850mb low tracks through northern PA, that's very dangerous from I-80 south at least, maybe even up to Williamsport. Could be a strong few hours of snow beforehand though.

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The 850mb low tracks through northern PA, that's very dangerous from I-80 south at least, maybe even up to Williamsport. Could be a strong few hours of snow beforehand though.

Could be one of those situations where heavy precip can delay or halt the progress of the warmer air aloft.  A couple hours of sleet wouldn't be the end of the world...just help cement our already impressive snowpack.

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Heck of a lot more PA real estate at or over 12" mark this run.  Almost the entire northern half is at least a foot.

 

Even though I can't precisely find myself, it looks like Cumberland county is in that little area of 6-8".  I'm in that little area where the higher amounts to the north dip down toward me.  I'll be happy if I get 4".  I'd prefer sleet over freezing rain if the mix has to occur.

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Heck of a lot more PA real estate at or over 12" mark this run.  Almost the entire northern half is at least a foot.

 

Even though I can't precisely find myself, it looks like Cumberland county is in that little area of 6-8".  I'm in that little area where the higher amounts to the north dip down toward me.  I'll be happy if I get 4".  I'd prefer sleet over freezing rain if the mix has to occur.

Exactly look at those highs up North Still feel 4 plus for many

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Boy Voyager, thank you so much too!  Looks like my eyeballing was fairly close.  Looks like 6-7". 

 

Did you all notice that bulleye of around 18" is almost dead center of the state.  Wow.

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Can anyone comment on RGEM?  Was reading in NYC forum that it ticked slightly south of the 12Z run.  Hours 36-48 are like the NAM's 60-72. 

 

Edit:  map looks sweet still for LSV.  There is hope!

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UKMET still has low strongest of any model and tracking through PA

 

Yes but if it is similar to its 12z run its no less snowy than say the NAM.

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UKMET still has low strongest of any model and tracking through PA

 

Yea it's even more wound up than 12z, 989 in extreme eastern Ohio at 60 and down to 983 sitting on Cape Cod @ 72hr

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Keep this in mind....from NWS

THE PREVAILING SHIFT IN THE 12Z MODELS WAS TO CONTINUE A MORE

NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE WPC

FORECAST WHICH WAS WEIGHTED HEAVILY IN THE FINAL GRIDDED SNOW/ICE

ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TEMPERED BY THE RUN-

TO- RUN INCONSISTENCIES THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN ALONG THE WITH

DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE MODELS MAY REVERSE TRENDS IN

SUBSEQUENT RUNS. WITH SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES COMING UP ANTICIPATE

SOME CHANGES REGARDING NUMBERS AND LOCATIONS OF SNOWFALL TOTALS.

A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST TO SURGE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE

EARLY WEEK STORM WITH POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS MONDAY

NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS COULD ADD TO STORM-RELATED IMPACTS. HIGH

PRESSURE SHOULD BRING COLD BUT QUIET WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. MODELS

AND ENSEMBLES SHOW A COASTAL TYPE SYSTEM SOMETIME NEXT WED-FRI BUT

IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THIS SYSTEM.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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So now it's the waiting game till Euro?  Only 75 minutes to go.

 

Regarding the UKMET...can someone tell us how it models the arctic high to our north?  Does it just make it weaker and that allows less suppression from the cold air?  I'm just wondering if there is a sound reason to pay attention to its solution.

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Heck of a lot more PA real estate at or over 12" mark this run.  Almost the entire northern half is at least a foot.

 

Even though I can't precisely find myself, it looks like Cumberland county is in that little area of 6-8".  I'm in that little area where the higher amounts to the north dip down toward me.  I'll be happy if I get 4".  I'd prefer sleet over freezing rain if the mix has to occur.

Don't pay attention to the snow maps, they might count sleet as snow accumulation. Look at soundings instead and the track of the 850 low. The warm nose looks to be above 850mb, so looking at that level might be deceiving. It might be below zero at 850 but above at 750 and 800mb, meaning sleet.

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