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Atomixwx

Central PA & the fringes - January 2015 Part III

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The problem is that i think the storm last week was a lot more volatile - rapidly deepening storm where timing of a closed 500mb low changed the track.

Not sure that there is any feature to this where a big shift would occur. We can all dream of HP pressing down, snow pack in place, and an energy tranfer. But that might be weenie dreams

One could also dream that it is all rain and flooding. Matter of perspective I suppose. Truth of the matter is that there are two model camps right now. I don't think it is a weenie dream to say the low is going to jump to the coast so long as there is model support showing it. The 00Z Euro shows exactly that scenario and now the 12Z GEM (although warmer than its 0Z run) shows it as well. It's an interesting showdown to say the least.

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Zoomed in county maps of NAM and GFS still show around 5 inches near MDT, with a few inches more just to the north. It won't take much of a shift south with the track, say just 50 miles, to make this much better for the LSV.

 

I didn't do a 12z GFS map. Do you all want one or should I just wait for the 18z suite? I can do the CMC now unless you think it's irrelevant.

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UKMET still setting that northern bound, driving the surface low thru NW PA and the 850 low through Erie. Really could've done without the 12z GFS... but above 80 is still in line to get throttled anyways (unless the UKMET's right). The corridor between the turnpike and 80 is going to be impossible to call... as usual. The southern tier will be also, but unless we start getting the low back south of the PA border  it's becoming more evident that more extensive mixing will take over there. Glad I haven't put a map out yet.

 

I've said this twice yesterday and I'll say it again, if the low tracks through PA snowfall is going to be hurt from a QPF standpoint regardless of mixing or not (except for maybe the northern tier of PA) as precip would shut off and become more scattered as the best forcing for the banded precip goes north. The front end should be all snow for most everyone and it will likely become an issue of how much falls before the low tracks into PA. 

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Euro might be a slight bit north of 0z but it still traverses roughly the Mason-Dixon. 850s are a bit warmer, with the 0C line briefly poking up to about UNV at 48 before secondary quickly takes over off the Jersey shore and crashes 850s state-wide by 54. Northern 2/3s still has shield of .1-.25" hanging around at 54. 

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12z Euro has joined all others... I still think State College/Williamsport are in really good positions to get crushed... going to walk a fine line down this way... while models are not looking the greatest right now I still think some over running is going to really hit someone good... incredible amount of moisture across central US right now

 

satsfcnps.gif

 

wt0.gif

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12z Euro has joined all others... I still think State College/Williamsport are in really good positions to get crushed... going to walk a fine line down this way... while models are not looking the greatest right now I still think some over running is going to really hit someone good... incredible amount of moisture across central US right now

 

satsfcnps.gif

 

wt0.gif

 

Dang that reminds me of the water vapor image a couple days before the 2/5/2010 storm. I had the image saved on my old laptop, not sure where it went. No big block and confluence for this one though. 

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JMA

 

 

Lol that looks like that would still give DC a chance. Guess that's our southern bound of the guidance envelope with the UKMET the northernmost. At least the varsity squad is all somewhere in between.. although that doesn't make the forecast for our region any easier. 

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Weatherbell regional map for PA with counties shows 5-6 inches at MDT with similar amounts running along the PA turnpike. 9-10 inch amounts run along I-80. It looks like a consensus is building for a solid 5-10 inch PA storm.

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Can anyone tell my why this feature (circled in red) nearly ALWAYS shows up on the models in my area? If I am on the northern gradient it pokes south and lowers totals, and in this case, since I am on the southern gradient, it pokes north and lowers totals.

 

post-317-0-58223300-1422729335_thumb.jpg

 

 

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Can anyone tell my why this feature (circled in red) nearly ALWAYS shows up on the models in my area? If I am on the northern gradient it pokes south and lowers totals, and in this case, since I am on the southern gradient, it pokes north and lowers totals.

 

attachicon.gifevHQaYA.jpg

Looks like the outline of the Lackawanna valley.  Lower elevations there compared to those in areas surrounding.  That's my guess.  

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Looks like the outline of the Lackawanna valley.  Lower elevations there compared to those in areas surrounding.  That's my guess.  

 

On this particular map, but like I said, when we are on the northern edge, that same feature dips south. There are hills and valleys in other parts of the state. There must be some sort of unique land feature locally that wants to downslope or something here. It's kind of like the summer thunderstorms. Get a good squall line traversing the state, and yet it falls apart about 10 miles or so from me, and then reforms as it heads toward the Lehigh Valley or the Poconos.

 

Strange...

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12z Euro has joined all others... I still think State College/Williamsport are in really good positions to get crushed... going to walk a fine line down this way... while models are not looking the greatest right now I still think some over running is going to really hit someone good... incredible amount of moisture across central US right now

satsfcnps.gif

DJR about 5" on euro for us?

wt0.gif

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Just throwing a bone out there if anyone is already tired of this storm... Euro day 7 through 10 has UNV picking up another 21" on top of this storm. Good for a laugh I guess...

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ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MDT LAT= 40.18 LON= -76.75 ELE= 308

12Z JAN31

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

SUN 12Z 01-FEB -8.5 -6.3 1024 77 95 0.00 551 532

SUN 18Z 01-FEB 0.0 -5.8 1021 76 85 0.04 551 534

MON 00Z 02-FEB -1.3 -2.2 1018 95 95 0.07 550 536

MON 06Z 02-FEB -1.3 -1.8 1010 92 100 0.14 547 539

MON 12Z 02-FEB 0.1 2.2 1000 97 97 0.35 542 542

MON 18Z 02-FEB 1.9 -2.3 997 83 60 0.09 529 532

TUE 00Z 03-FEB -8.9 -13.9 1012 67 54 0.05 528 519

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2 products issued by NWS for: Hyde PA

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA257 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY INTOMONDAY...PAZ017>019-049>053-058-010800-/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0002.150201T1700Z-150202T1700Z//O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0002.150201T1400Z-150202T1800Z/CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-SCHUYLKILL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...PHILIPSBURG...STATE COLLEGE...LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...BERWICK...POTTSVILLE257 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM ESTMONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS INEFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCHIS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW FOLLOWED BY SOME FREEZING RAIN.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 8 INCHES.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY  NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL TURN TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN BRIEFLY TO  RAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. 

:thumbsdown:

IT SHOULD GO BACK TO SNOW BY NOON  MONDAY AS IT TAPERS TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.* PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW...SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY  NIGHT.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS. A COATING  OF ICE WILL THEN MAY SIDEWALKS AND UNTREATED SURFACES SLIPPERY.* WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE. BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND  INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON MONDAY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

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Here's the WSW text for Dauphin. FWIW I'm about 10 or 15 miles north of the turnpike,

...Winter Storm Warning in effect from 9 am Sunday to 8 am EST Monday...

The National Weather Service in State College has issued a Winter Storm Warning for snow and freezing rain...which is in effect from 9 am Sunday to 8 am EST Monday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

* Locations...the central mountains and portions of the lower Susquehanna valley.

* Hazard types...snow followed by freezing rain.

* Snow accumulations...4 to 7 inches.

* Ice accumulations...around a tenth of an inch.

* Timing...snow will begin Sunday morning or early afternoon and continue into Sunday night. The snow will turn to freezing rain then to plain rain late Sunday night or Monday morning. It should then taper off to scattered snow showers on Monday.

* Period of heaviest snow...Sunday evening and early Sunday night.

* Impacts...hazardous travel due to snow covered roads. A coating of ice will then may sidewalks and untreated surfaces slippery.

* Winds...light and variable. Becoming northwest and increasing to around 10 mph with higher gusts on Monday.

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