2001kx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Dt's First Call https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It sure does. Maybe a touch slower as well. Slower is exactly the problem with this. The slower it goes, the more time it has to strengthen and advect warm air ahead of it. The slower models have been the warmer ones, and the trend has been to slow it down ever since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Amazing. A few days ago the DC crowd was just about in the bullseye, and now, if this thing goes any farther north, they'll be hoisting WSW's for Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I mentally preparing for flash flood warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 My point forecast says 3 - 5, then freezing rain. Low Monday night of 1 so shovel fast or face needing explosives to clear the driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 What a painful storm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The NAM has been pretty inconsistent in the last couple of runs -- at least by my reckoning. On the other hand, this latest (18z) solution is in line with the trends of some of the other models (notably the GFS op and many of its ensemble members). Yet, the Euro has been relatively consistent the last few runs and doesn't, at least as much, portray this warming/slowing trend. Obviously, the 0z guidance will be critical. Of course, by then, we will be starting to get into the time frame in which observations upstream will be of greater import than the models. With all of that said, if you like snow and live in the southern third of the Commonwealth, it's seeming pretty likely that you will be somewhat disappointed. And, if you live in the middle third, like I do, you're going to be tearing hair out of your head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 abc27 says c-2" State College south, less than 1" in HBG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 abc27 says c-2" State College south, less than 1" in HBG. Till all is said and done, I'm wondering if that won't end up being a decent forecast. Nothing is stopping the northward progression of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 abc27 says c-2" State College south, less than 1" Huh? In addition to being good friends with one of the forecasters there, I see an image on their Facebook page, posted 10 minutes ago, that shows State College near the boundary between 5-8" and 8-11", 2-5" for Lewistown, Altoona, and Newport, and C-2" in the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Huh? In addition to being good friends with one of the forecasters there, I see an image on their Facebook page, posted 10 minutes ago, that shows State College near the boundary between 2-5" and 8-11", 5-8" for Lewistown, Altoona, and Newport, and C-2" in the LSV.Did my eyes fail me? They said on the station break 1" but the map looked like 2" around State College. I see the map and must've misread the TV.Edit: I meant no disrespect for 27, they do a prety good job and I agree completely with their forecast. This storm looks over for us down here to be much of anything. hopefully PSUHazelton can get his this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wow this thing will not stop going north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 At this point I'm just hoping there isn't a long duration freezing rain event setting up. With lows below zero on Monday night along with winds gusting to perhaps 30 mph, power outages would not be a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 With the stubborn cold at the surface this could get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Did my eyes fail me? They said on the station break 1" but the map looked like 2" around State College. I see the map and must've misread the TV. Edit: I meant no disrespect for 27, they do a prety good job and I agree completely with their forecast. This storm looks over for us down here to be much of anything. hopefully PSUHazelton can get his this time. this is what i found..correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 this is what i found..correct? Yup, I somehow misread it going up to CTP itself. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I don't know if it's just wishful thinking at this point... but with the level of dry air currently overhead, our history with over running, and the way the water vapor imagery looks I can still see that snow/mixing line south of what NAM and GFS are indicating. What bothers me is how the UKMET has not wavered from a north track all week and based on surface maps the high over Canada looks to be north and behind of what models had for this afternoon/early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Dt's First Call https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk He is going to bust HORRIBLY. That is a terrible call. Those accumulations need to all be pushed at least 50 miles north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z GFS might be a couple mb's weaker with the low pressure but otherwise low track and 850 temps are bout the same as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gut feel, we all get more snow than the models show and someone ends up with a fairly bad ice event. The CAD is usually relatively under estimated in NC and even Mid to lower Susq. valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 A bad ice event wouldn't be good on the eve of a sub zero night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Dt's First Call https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk Man for once hope DT verified lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The whole area is under warnings now and the word "ice" have begun creeping in. If we get ice, it will only make a bad situation worse. Any way not being a Met, my feeling is that we in NEPA will be on the cutting edge of a nice ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Does anyone else hate how this new "upgraded" GFS downlopes some areas unrealistically? Look at the 12"+ spots in NEPA and then the 6>" spots right next to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yup, I somehow misread it going up to CTP itself. My bad. Abc 27 c-2" Nws 4-7" DT 8" For LSV that's a wide range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well, the GFS snow map still looks decent for the area. Let's hope it, and not the NAM, comes closer to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well, the GFS snow map still looks decent for the area. Let's hope it, and not the NAM, comes closer to verifying. Funny how after 12z I was dreading the GFS and now after that NAM run it suddenly doesn't look too awful. lol Many mets have thrown out the NAM fwiw and the Euro ensembles support the OP. My biggest concern was/is the UKMET, it's a very under the radar model but I definitely have found it useful before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Abc 27 c-2" Nws 4-7" DT 8" For LSV that's a wide range Eric Horst is 2-5". DT's call is a joke, I ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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