CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 No I did. I read the ones where you were talking about how this winter won't be a blockbuster unless we get a good snowfall in December, like somehow 12 hours difference between 12/31 and 1/1 would matter. I didn't, however, read your clarification that by blockbuster you meant one of the best winters ever, until just now. Nobody likes rain on Christmas. It will get to all of us if it happens like that. Well I only used Boston as an example and said IMHO it would be greater than 75" for a blockbuster. That's a probably top 6 without looking. And you misread the idea of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 This one looks a lot uglier than it did ont he 12z runs yesterdya, though I still wouldn't rule out accumulating snow in the interior. But the consolation prize might be more like a 1-3 event vs a solid advisory event. But there is still time on this one to change. As an aside, not trying to pick on anyone in particular, but I don't ever remember people having so much confidence in deterministic NWP at 5-8 days this year than on here this cold season so far. Probably part of the reason we see mini-meltdowns based off 156 hour solutions turning crappier. Yeah i don't understand why some mets and weenies are saying no chance of snow from this. Even with no southern interaction..there's still enough from N stream for a few inches. Maybe that changes for better or worse. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Patience is wearing thin for sure. Sometimes I like to go back to model runs from 200+ hours previous for the current run 0hr and compare just to keep my sanity. We used to almost never start following an event really seriously until inside about 96 hours out unless it was just all over the models and ensembles with high confidence. Now while that sentiment was really from the 2006-2010 era, I will say that our model accuracy in lead time has not improved by like 50% since then, but we've started tracking events at a way earlier rate than the model accuracy is improving....that can only lead to one thing....disappointment. You start tracking storms 2x per day (in some cases 4x) beginning at 7 days out, then you are bound to see a couple dreamy solutions that won't verify. At any rate, back to this current threat...it looks worse than it did yesterday...that isn't a surprise. It won't be much of a surprise if it looks better tonight than it did this morning either. Basically "keep an eye on it and we'll address it in more detail should the need arise as we get closer" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Yeah i don't understand why some mets and weenies are saying no chance of snow from this. Even with no southern interaction..there's still enough from N stream for a few inches. Maybe that changes for better or worse. We'll see Nobody is ruling anything out for elevated interior, but don't foolishly get your hopes up either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Dec 17th and cancelling winter..........wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Nobody is ruling anything out for elevated interior, but don't foolishly get your hopes up either. You're already quoted and noted for your prediction a bit earlier. Hopefully it looks better as we move in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It's also a function of having nothing interesting to track in the meantime. Last year, there were snowstorms 3 days out that we weren't paying much attention to because there was one ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 You're already quoted and noted for your prediction a bit earlier. Hopefully it looks better as we move in That ensembles look like nothing? They don't. It's also day 5, but I wouldn't feel giddy. It doesn't mean you can't get a little glop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It's also a function of having nothing interesting to track in the meantime. Last year, there were snowstorms 3 days out that we weren't paying much attention to because there was one ongoing. I understand what you mean about 12/31 vs 1/1, but the point myself, Will , and others have said, is that it's important to have money in the bank going into January if you really want a blockbuster winter. Plenty of great winters have happened along the coast without that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 That ensembles look like nothing? They don't. It's also day 5, but I wouldn't feel giddy. It doesn't mean you can't get a little glop. Noone is or should be feeling naked or giddy..just fairly good that they will see some type of snows over the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 lol Same old..same old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Same old..same old. good stuff. and definitely good for a morning laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 good stuff. and definitely good for a morning laugh. I will say that a couple of days ago I tossed the GFS idea in my head thinking it was too flat based on the other guidance. That doesn't mean a big snow was enroute, but I didn't buy a flat non-event. Turns out it may be closer to reality. I guess we will see what 12z does. In the end, I expected and still expect nothing on the coast, but it means a bit more further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 man I would have loved to have been on the Titanic with you. You would have had me convinced that all we hit was a patch of rough waters when the ship was tilted sideways Lol. seriously there is a little more time on Christmas to see some changes. This!! Good analogy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 No the strong idea really was never an option..This has always looked like a light to moderate event. Honestly how many times over the yrs do we see this? Models lose something..the ensembles have it..and then about 48-72 hours out, the op runs bring it back. It's funny to watch the same people get upset, cancel it, whine, complain..only to have it come back. This will end up a 2-4 or possibly 3-6 inch event I'll take the under. No cold air either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I will say that a couple of days ago I tossed the GFS idea in my head thinking it was too flat based on the other guidance. That doesn't mean a big snow was enroute, but I didn't buy a flat non-event. Turns out it may be closer to reality. I guess we will see what 12z does. In the end, I expected and still expect nothing on the coast, but it means a bit more further inland. yeah agree. *if* *if* *if* you want to believe the current set-up...i'd think some of the elevated interior would have to watch out for a lengthy light freezing rain or freezing drizzle event. models spitting out light qpf...very minimal and shallow lift and probably a continuation of this trapped low level cold, which is probably strengthened a bit with the weak caa next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 -zzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 -zzzzzzzzz Add a few more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 -zzzzzzzzz Well still could be some accumulations inland and up high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Dec 17th and cancelling winter..........wow December's not a winter month in SNE. Love the qpf for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 0z GGEM Ensembles look way better than the op for the weekend storm http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=108&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=120&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 0z GGEM Ensembles look way better than the op for the weekend storm http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=108&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=120&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm GEM 6 and 16 please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 0z GGEM Ensembles look way better than the op for the weekend storm http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=108&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=120&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm Yeah if we ever needed the GDPS to score the ultimate coup, this is the time. The model is dreadful. Even environment canada discounts it most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 well cheer up everybody the name NAM will be coming into range soon. Here NAM comes to save the daaaaaay!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I will say that a couple of days ago I tossed the GFS idea in my head thinking it was too flat based on the other guidance. That doesn't mean a big snow was enroute, but I didn't buy a flat non-event. Turns out it may be closer to reality. I guess we will see what 12z does. In the end, I expected and still expect nothing on the coast, but it means a bit more further inland. Euro shat the bed with this one, as it looks so far. It consistently showed an EC storm while GFS was weak and flat. A lot of us thought this was typical GFS bias...but turns out, it looks more right than wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Everything I've seen and read from the Met's perspective tells me that the 21-22nd event is a non factor and that xmas storm is gonna cut...Hopefully I get my birthday storm on the 3rd...the accuweather 30 day wish cast has plenty of cold and snow events in January, lets hope it pans out...just think 2010-2011, we were jumping into tubs with toasters until the boxing day event, then a month later roofs were collapsing under 40" of snow...and it didn't stop until late march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Everything I've seen and read from the Met's perspective tells me that the 21-22nd event is a non factor and that xmas storm is gonna cut...Hopefully I get my birthday storm on the 3rd...the accuweather 30 day wish cast has plenty of cold and snow events in January, lets hope it pans out...just think 2010-2011, we were jumping into tubs with toasters until the boxing day event, then a month later roofs were collapsing under 40" of snow...and it didn't stop until late march I thought I remembered it calming down in late February / early March but nevertheless it was an epic season, I remember where I lived in Ellington I got like 25 in one storm and then like 13 a few days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Wow at the 12z Para GFS and its Dad, Talk about clueless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 GFS looks partly sunny lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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