tavwtby Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I thought I remembered it calming down in late February / early March but nevertheless it was an epic season, I remember where I lived in Ellington I got like 25 in one storm and then like 13 a few days later For me anyway, it pretty much ended on the ground hogs day storm, but eastern MA and other CNE area got good hits well into march. I remember a couple of advisdory events, but the month of January that year was epic in Waterbury. The inverted trough event gave us like 14" that day, plus there was a squall event that put down like 4" in 15 minutes in that month....all that said, I don't think we will every see another 95-96 winter...that was great for us here. There have been some good ones since, but that season takes the cake, it snowed like every three days it seemed, with good amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Wow at the 12z Para GFS and its Dad, Talk about clueless parallel is trying to come back north later in the run towards Monday, similar to what the European was trying to show as if some of the energy escapes eastward but some gets bundled along the coast and eventually develops into a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 basically on the parallel the storm develops too late and the high pressure system is well off to the northeast and there's also the downstream low over the Great Lakes that is flooding the region with a warm air aloft and the 850 is torched all the way up to PF country even though the coastal low is in a somewhat favorable position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 GFS looks like almost a prolonged period of weenie snow with weak onshore flow and saturated below 800mb. But likely cold enough to avoid FZDZ. But that certainly can't be ruled out either in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Everything I've seen and read from the Met's perspective tells me that the 21-22nd event is a non factor and that xmas storm is gonna cut...Hopefully I get my birthday storm on the 3rd...the accuweather 30 day wish cast has plenty of cold and snow events in January, lets hope it pans out...just think 2010-2011, we were jumping into tubs with toasters until the boxing day event, then a month later roofs were collapsing under 40" of snow...and it didn't stop until late march I remember it 2010-2011 stopping right after the first week of Feb...It ran out of gas and just died!! But January 2011 was an Epic run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 GFS looks like almost a prolonged period of weenie snow with weak onshore flow and saturated below 800mb. But likely cold enough to avoid FZDZ. But that certainly can't be ruled out either in that setup. that is where your understanding of soundings and how to interpret them really helps you. That is the one thing I have never learned or been able to completely grasp because I've never taken an actual weather class outside of high school or just learning on the Internet and reading books. Just looking at the surface maps looked mainly dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 that is where your understanding of soundings and how to interpret them really helps you. That is the one thing I have never learned or been able to completely grasp because I've never taken an actual weather class. Just looking at the surface maps looked mainly dry Sites like twisterdata and weather.cod allow you to look at soundings. Never be afraid to post one and ask questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Classic low level saturation with maybe some flakes thanks to salt nuclei perhaps. Even possible seeder-feeder aloft. Of course this is if the model is correct. This would mainly be ORH east. Too warm on coast perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 GFS looks like almost a prolonged period of weenie snow with weak onshore flow and saturated below 800mb. But likely cold enough to avoid FZDZ. But that certainly can't be ruled out either in that setup.Just steady light snow on east winds that would be aided by hills and a touch of upslope. I'd take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Funny thing to think about...if this storm is modeled as well as the Feb 2013 blizzard, then the Euro should just now be picking up on a major storm outcome, and the GFS will have another 2.5 days to go before it picks up on something resembling the final solution. No, it's not going to happen this time. But I still find it interesting how we forget how unreliable our mid-range NWP is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Love the renaming of the topic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I remember it 2010-2011 stopping right after the first week of Feb...It ran out of gas and just died!! But January 2011 was an Epic run. Correct....there was like an event early Feb 2011 and then that was it.....maybe up in Winsted they had a couple more events in Feb but down in the CT River Valley it was all done after that first event......epic run.....>30" snow pack at the highest IMBY..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Correct....there was like an event early Feb 2011 and then that was it.....maybe up in Winsted they had a couple more events in Feb but down in the CT River Valley it was all done after that first event......epic run.....>30" snow pack at the highest IMBY..... Maybe I am thinkging of another year where it continued into late March else where but for CT, it was basically over after Ground hog day. Come to think of it, was it 2012-2013? After the Blizzard, Eastern MA and CNE got slammed a couple more times but CT didn't? My memory is going as I get older....Also, I was in Waterbury then, last winter was my first in Winsted. so glad I got out of that rat hole... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Thread cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 12z GGEM looks similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Models seem to be slowing this next one down some, 12z Euro is doing that from 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Models seem to be slowing this next one down some, 12z Euro is doing that from 0z Yeah it is. Big follow-up grinch storm coming too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Yeah it is. Big follow-up grinch storm coming too. Oh yes, Massive one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Oh yes, Massive one Keep it weather-related please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I was afraid this would happen. Makes the Grinch worse while becoming ca-ca on its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Let's talk about extrapolations of the 18z 84 hr NAM. Go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Well for those that live inland, a little light snow and ice possible Sunday and Sunday night still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 OK has Anyone ever seen what happens in the 180H area of the 18z GFS?? A Low goes Well west of us and then Explodes over Buffalo down into the 960's and even the though the precip. is Past us it Re-expands back down south as snow? Strangest thing I may have seen on a model that close. As the storm comes in, that 850 0C line has Well north of Toronto above freezing and Northern FL below it as it loops up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Gfs has the system tonight. Straight up rainstorm in most of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Well for those that live inland, a little light snow and ice possible Sunday and Sunday night still. Yeah there's going to be some sneaky, pleasant surprises in the Sunday afternoon-Mon nite timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yeah there's going to be some sneaky, pleasant surprises in the Sunday afternoon-Mon nite timeframe. Your agreement is to a post Scott made before any of the 00z runs. After the 00z runs, I would say any snow would be even more of a surprise and much less likel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I will get more snow today than Sumday/Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I will get more snow today than Sumday/Monday There's a nice signal for east flow riding up over low level cold dome. There's going to be periods of steady light snow over the interior that will accumulate some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 There's a nice signal for east flow riding up over low level cold dome. There's going to be periods of steady light snow over the interior that will accumulate some Kind of a meh signal though. The cold erodes thanks to the second low coming up. Still could accumulate a little bit I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Kind of a meh signal though. The cold erodes thanks to the second low coming up. Still could accumulate a little bit I suppose. Yeah nothing crazy..maybe an inch..2 if someone got really lucky. Seems like it's the winter of just nickel and dimes in SNE. Maybe we'll get a bigger storm at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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