ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 12z NAM keys in on PYM County for the best chance of accum. Freezing heights are around 1000 ft so if it falls hard enough, it should accum. Perhaps 1-2". Yeah and over to eastern Norfolk County...could be a Scooter jackpot. That's almost advisory snows there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Will just jinxed me. We'll see. I do like the look, but it's all about where that trough sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yeah and over to eastern Norfolk County...could be a Scooter jackpot. That's almost advisory snows there. Not sure how far west this can go too. Flow is pretty much out of the N/NNE. Nice convergence right around Scituate/Cohasset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 There's your ORH east facing hills jackpot. That's the place to be if you happen to have a jack fetish. Nice accumulating snows back to the Berks and CT/Ny border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Will just jinxed me. We'll see. I do like the look, but it's all about where that trough sets up. Now Ray will get like 2" while you get a coating after he said he was too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Isn't the concern near the coast of bl issues with thAt torched beast to the east? East winds are going to be an issue I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 12z RGGEM likes a little further south with the snow but its at the end of the run so can't see where it goes from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Isn't the concern near the coast of bl issues with thAt torched beast to the east? East winds are going to be an issue I would think. It's not a strong wind and as you'll see the flow is mostly N/NNE draining in colder air aloft. Freezing heights are low. Also DP will be relatively low so some of the modeled QPF will be wasted away saturating the column, I don't think much accum occurs W of I-495 due to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Off topic but.......... NCEP is experiencing a "major issue" and moved to a backup server. Therefore, the HRRR will be unavailable until they switch back to the primary system. There are also delays for the NAM and NAM-HIRES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yeah the winds at the sfc are more NNE, so the torched ocean will only get the places that are exposed on that wind such as PYM and the Cape and parts of the south shore that really stick out. Places like BOS should be plenty cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 We've got south flow at 850 and easterly flow at surface so saturation should be easy. This should send snows back well west.. Even down to NYC could see some light stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 This is starting to look good down this way. Maybe an inch or two before we cook on the 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Nice little event on the GFS over SE areas. Parallel was more ern MA..a little more widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 And to calm the fears of a few Others, it probably would extend west a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 And to calm the fears of a few Others, it probably would extend west a bit. Yeah I'm sure it will snow in most of SNE...but the best shot at 1-3" will be some eastern spots. It's possible there could be a secondary max if it works out perfectly over CT somewhere on an inverted trough...but that is just as likely to set up over E MA after the initial light snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Screw everyone else. This ones mine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yeah I'm sure it will snow in most of SNE...but the best shot at 1-3" will be some eastern spots. It's possible there could be a secondary max if it works out perfectly over CT somewhere on an inverted trough...but that is just as likely to set up over E MA after the initial light snows. I think like you said , ORH hills on east probably overall for general lighter snows. Probably berks too...you can almost envision a large area of echoes blossoming under clear air mode radar lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I think like you said , ORH hills on east probably overall for general lighter snows. Probably berks too...you can almost envision a large area of echoes blossoming under clear air mode radar lol. Yep...vintage for these types of events. The good PVA will help with a bit of larger scale lift and the light flow off the ocean will do the rest...then as the inverted trough sets up, that's when more defined areas of enhancement will likely set up. The first thing we will probably see is those clear air mode OES bands going into the south shore on Saturday afternoon...then it will expand from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yep...vintage for these types of events. The good PVA will help with a bit of larger scale lift and the light flow off the ocean will do the rest...then as the inverted trough sets up, that's when more defined areas of enhancement will likely set up. The first thing we will probably see is those clear air mode OES bands going into the south shore on Saturday afternoon...then it will expand from there. Yeah I like that s/w sliding out. It's very good for an event like this and more widespread than QPF shows. Mr. minor event down in CT, can breathe easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 I'm not optimistic about this one here. Just expecting mood flakes, with perhaps a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 actually like my location for this " event ". Temps look to be okay. These seem so fickle, thats why I am hesitant we see much more than mood flakes. However, the potential seems to be there for a few inches if it works out right. Would be nice to get on the board for this month, and add a festive appeal to the landscape. Maybe this will be more substantial than the slop i have received so far this year. Good luck dude. Hopefully this one works out for you guys. Everyone deserves a little holiday cheer before we all rain on Xmas Eve lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Man NCEP has some issues, Also the Para made it out to hr 240 The HRRR is suspended until NCEP restores services to their primary site. NCEP has provided no timeline for the return of the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yeah I like that s/w sliding out. It's very good for an event like this and more widespread than QPF shows. Mr. minor event down in CT, can breathe easier.If you recall.. I'm the one that kept this Alive. I said dig deeper than models.. Someone told me to keep digging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 If you recall.. I'm the one that kept this Alive. I said dig deeper than models.. Someone told me to keep digging You were insisting that the coastal would still hit us with like 3-6, lol. It was yours truly a few pages back who said we could get onshore low-level weenie snow, and then you correctly started focusing on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 12z Canadian decided to go in a completely different direction with this and jackpots central CT and north into MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 You were insisting that the coastal would still hit us with like 3-6, lol. It was yours truly a few pages back who said we could get onshore low-level weenie snow, and then you correctly started focusing on that. That was like 5 days ago when you thought the coastal would hit too. I was the first one to introduce tiny flakes where it would snow all day and add up to an inch or so, and then you sort of piggybacked off that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 That was like 5 days ago when you thought the coastal would hit too. I was the first one to introduce tiny flakes where it would snow all day and add up to an inch or so, and then you sort of piggybacked off that It was there, but kind of a weak signal inland and a warm one for the CP. Now it's almost an inv trough with winds more nrly near this area which is better here..and still cold enough by you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 That was like 5 days ago when you thought the coastal would hit too. I was the first one to introduce tiny flakes where it would snow all day and add up to an inch or so, and then you sort of piggybacked off that Actually two days ago..but who's counting? No the strong idea really was never an option..This has always looked like a light to moderate event. Honestly how many times over the yrs do we see this? Models lose something..the ensembles have it..and then about 48-72 hours out, the op runs bring it back. It's funny to watch the same people get upset, cancel it, whine, complain..only to have it come back. This will end up a 2-4 or possibly 3-6 inch event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Two days, five days..what's the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Euro looks pretty nice...it's cold too for BOS area. Both sfc and that 850-900mb zone. That will help with some dendritic production. Some could def squeeze out a couple inches if lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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