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12/20 Pre Grinch Mood Snows


40/70 Benchmark

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WHILE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW

ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD

OVERSPREAD PLYMOUTH COUNTY AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS

AFTERNOON. GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE GROUND...EXPECT SNOW

SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AS

LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. IN FACT...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED

SNOW SHOWERS AFFECT EVEN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES.

PTYPE:

MAINLY SNOW FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO

THE CAPE/ISLANDS. A SUBTLE COASTAL FRONT LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS

SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. PTYPE WILL BE SNOW TO THE

NORTHWEST OF THIS REGION...BUT ENOUGH MILD AIR SHOULD COME IN OFF

THE OCEAN FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THIS REGION.

NOT EXPECTING THE POSITION OF THIS SUBTLE BOUNDARY TO CHANGE MUCH

THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:

WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING AT A COATING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS

MOST OF THE REGION. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS

PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MA...AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY

COAST. ALSO...THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND MIGHT

BE ANOTHER AREA AS A RESULT OF THE SUBTLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE

WIND. YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE THAT IN SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION

MODEL GUIDANCE.

THERE IS ONE AREA TO WATCH IN PARTICULAR...FROM NORTHWEST PLYMOUTH

COUNTY AND INTO NORFOLK COUNTY BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS AND PATTERN

RECOGNITION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VERY LOCALIZED 3 TO 4

INCH SNOW AMOUNTS...GIVEN SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT AND A LITTLE FOCUS

ON THE COASTAL FRONT. WILL TRY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA IN OUR

SNOWFALL AND PROBABILISTIC GRAPHICS.

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Inverted trough signal is def there like Ginx said. What do you think?

I think a second area near you and perhaps west may be due to the s/w moving in. So probably .5-2" possible In spots there up through ORH. The area over SE ma is more due to inverted trough and cstl front. Someone will get advisory amounts, but models differ where convergence sets up. GFS was an eye opener for a global model. The new GFS likes PYM county to Essex county. Euro more PYM county. BTV WRF down west of PYM. So it's not set in stone.

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I think a second area near you and perhaps west may be due to the s/w moving in. So probably .5-2" possible In spots there up through ORH. The area over SE ma is more due to inverted trough and cstl front. Someone will get advisory amounts, but models differ where convergence sets up. GFS was an eye opener for a global model. The new GFS likes PYM county to Essex county. Euro more PYM county. BTV WRF down west of PYM. So it's not set in stone.

Looks to me like it's actually setting up nw to Se starting near Block Island now

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Great! Maybe a little mood snow in the area near  Christmas. Even a whitening of the grass will be nice this year. Funny how expectations change due to patterns. Some years folks would be griping about this little event. This year we're just happy to have something. 

And when quite a few folks see 2-3 spot 4 amounts..there'll be some very happy, surprised people

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