moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yeah nothing crazy..maybe an inch..2 if someone got really lucky. Seems like it's the winter of just nickel and dimes in SNE. Maybe we'll get a bigger storm at some point Half-pence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 ok this is definitely turning into more of a Monday / Tuesday event. Looks like some residual cold air may allow for a period of mixing at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 ok this is definitely turning into more of a Monday / Tuesday event. Looks like some residual cold air may allow for a period of mixing at the onset. Nah..it's mostly just Sunday into Sunday nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 once again we have a retreat in high pressure system with nothing but low pressure to our north and west. nice Stormtrack but crappy outcome for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Nah..it's mostly just Sunday into Sunday nite Not really MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE BENCHMARK AND WELL OFFSHORE. BELIEVE A SOLUTION FATHER OUT TO SEA IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA. REGARDLESS A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE COASTAL AREAS HAVING THE BEST SHOT TO SEE PRECIP. THERMAL PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT NIGHT AND RAIN DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES DOMINATE OUT AHEAD OF STRONGER SYSTEM TO THE EAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The original disturbance is very late Saturday and Sunday which doesn't give us much except maybe some low level weenie snow or FZDZ if it even gets the flow going enough out of the east...but there's another wave that tries to form out ahead of the Grinch storm now that looks a little more juicy but not as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Very weak wave and onshore flow may generate light flurries or a light mix late Saturday night and Sunday morning. The next coastal wave doesn't develop until Monday and there is still a chance that can go OTS if the high pressure over Eastern Canada is a little stronger and further south and if it does make it up this way it will probably be it late mix changing to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The original disturbance is very late Saturday and Sunday which doesn't give us much except maybe some low level weenie snow or FZDZ if it even gets the flow going enough out of the east...but there's another wave that tries to form out ahead of the Grinch storm now that looks a little more juicy but not as cold. sorry I didn't see your post I must have been typing it on my phone at the same time that you were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I still believe Sunday is going to surprise some people.. You've got a classic east flow over cold dome setup with the one low going out to our south and the cold High to our north.. You can sort of envision those small flakes coming down, It might snow all day only adding up to an inch or something like..but it's something anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I still believe Sunday is going to surprise some people.. You've got a classic east flow over cold dome setup with the one low going out to our south and the cold High to our north.. You can sort of envision those small flakes coming down, It might snow all day only adding up to an inch or something like..but it's something anyway Models have really backed off on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Models have really backed off on it. I'm digging a bit deeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I'm digging a bit deeper Ah - keep digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Ah - keep digging.No reason why we dont see a bit of snow Sunday. I know where you stand(no snow) . We know where I stand (some snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Well there's always the 12z NAM, lol. Sort of has an E MA little snow event kind of like before the dec 9-10 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I definitely could see some light precip for someone. I don't know if it's rain or snow, but would guess maybe lighter snows inland. The NAM would work, but it's the NAM. Would need that inv trough look to keep winds nrly here. In any case, it's probably more ORH east I would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 HIRES NAM model has a nice OES event for eastern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 All are in dire need of a widespread blanket of 6-10" across the landscape. Nothing resembling that till next year. Any comments in regards to micro-analysing nuances only clutters, and lessens credibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 All are in dire need of a widespread blanket of 6-10" across the landscape. Nothing resembling that till next year. Any comments in regards to micro-analysing nuances only clutters, and lessens credibility. Woah there, it is 12/18. Let's not be making deterministic forecasts for New Year's Eve quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 12z Para GFS looks like a nice snowstorm up here on the 23rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 12z GFS is like the NAM. Def more robust mainly due to hanging back a lot of vort energy and allowing the next s/w in the lakes to almost get absorbed into it. Would prob be a coating to an inch type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yeah you would do good to bad theres no cold air around would even be a good storm track for here 12z Para GFS looks like a nice snowstorm up here on the 23rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yeah you would do good to bad theres no cold air around would even be a good storm track for here It also shows on the grinch storm how it can snow on the backside as it wraps the colder air around with the whole system being a little further east, As modeled, More folks would like the 12z Para GFS results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 12z GFS is like the NAM. Def more robust mainly due to hanging back a lot of vort energy and allowing the next s/w in the lakes to almost get absorbed into it. Would prob be a coating to an inch type deal. Yup..one of those deals where we snow all day ..little tiny flakes..with an inch or so to show for it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 the Canadian seems to be following the theme with the onshore flow and mood snow both Saturday night into Sunday and then again on Monday ahead of the coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Euro has the same general idea with the vortmax from the lakes nearly catching up to the one that hangs back on Sunday...result is sort of a strung out weakness in the upper level field with weak onshore flow and some decent low level moisture. So while nothing impressive, there could at least be some good mood snows on Sunday and perhaps enough to whiten everything up. But you know the deal on these mesoscale type events...they can disappear, reappear, and then disappear again until we are very close. In adddition...this is really a seperate system...but 12/23 is looking a bit colder too, so if that wave can push some decent precip into the region, at least the interior may see accumulating snows. But we've got plenty of time on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Euro has the same general idea with the vortmax from the lakes nearly catching up to the one that hangs back on Sunday...result is sort of a strung out weakness in the upper level field with weak onshore flow and some decent low level moisture. So while nothing impressive, there could at least be some good mood snows on Sunday and perhaps enough to whiten everything up. But you know the deal on these mesoscale type events...they can disappear, reappear, and then disappear again until we are very close. In adddition...this is really a seperate system...but 12/23 is looking a bit colder too, so if that wave can push some decent precip into the region, at least the interior may see accumulating snows. But we've got plenty of time on that one. Yeah a little inv trough action. Might even be cold enough here looking at the lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 That's a really nice east inflow look on the Euro..That might even start Saturday night.. Like one of those 24-36 hour constant light snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Nam looks good for a nice solid steady light snow. This is def gonna go under the radar of some as it continues right into Monday pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Nam looks good for a nice solid steady light snow. This is def gonna go under the radar of some as it continues right into Monday pm. Not sure I would call it "solid steady light snow"...more like little weenie flakes with like 3 mile vis and at times you get luckier with a better burst. It might be best near the coast like that mini-event before Dec 9. We'll see how it looks as we get closer...some of it is going to depend on how the vort energy is oriented because that will either aid the situation with an inverted sfc trough or it could harm it if it is in the wrong place and cause some subsidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Not sure I would call it "solid steady light snow"...more like little weenie flakes with like 3 mile vis and at times you get luckier with a better burst. It might be best near the coast like that mini-event before Dec 9. We'll see how it looks as we get closer...some of it is going to depend on how the vort energy is oriented because that will either aid the situation with an inverted sfc trough or it could harm it if it is in the wrong place and cause some subsidence. It seems like there's some sort of vorticity that tracks near Nyc across the extreme south coast. We'll have to see how it all shakes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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