SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Sounds like Euro and GGEm ens still have it..Should see 12 z guidance start to pick it up today The 06Z GFS has more of a semblance of it than the 00Z did...the 12Z runs today will be the last shot I think for any 180 by the models as most of the suspects are now ashore in the U.S....its possible we could see a gradual shift back to something stronger but I don't think we ever go back to the Euro's idea of 36 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The 06Z GFS has more of a semblance of it than the 00Z did...the 12Z runs today will be the last shot I think for any 180 by the models as most of the suspects are now ashore in the U.S....its possible we could see a gradual shift back to something stronger but I don't think we ever go back to the Euro's idea of 36 hours ago. The EC has an underwhelming 1010mb track NE across Nantucket. It's a later system now, and it looks pretty warm, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Ok the northern stream precipitation shears out and we get light nuisance precipitation on most of the modeling or a weak inverted trough. The Euro Op seems like an outlier in bringing the low northward later Monday and even so its weak and warm . The window of opportunity is closing on this storm without some more promising changes over the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Ok the northern stream precipitation shears out and we get light nuisance precipitation on most of the modeling or a weak inverted trough. The Euro Op seems like an outlier in bringing another low northward later Monday and even so its weak and warm . The window of opportunity is closing on this storm without some more promising changes over the next day or two. get out the forks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The 06Z GFS has more of a semblance of it than the 00Z did...the 12Z runs today will be the last shot I think for any 180 by the models as most of the suspects are now ashore in the U.S....its possible we could see a gradual shift back to something stronger but I don't think we ever go back to the Euro's idea of 36 hours ago. No the strong idea really was never an option..This has always looked like a light to moderate event. Honestly how many times over the yrs do we see this? Models lose something..the ensembles have it..and then about 48-72 hours out, the op runs bring it back. It's funny to watch the same people get upset, cancel it, whine, complain..only to have it come back. This will end up a 2-4 or possibly 3-6 inch event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 No the strong idea really was never an option..This has always looked like a light to moderate event. Honestly how many times over the yrs do we see this? Models lose something..the ensembles have it..and then about 48-72 hours out, the op runs bring it back. It's funny to watch the same people get upset, cancel it, whine, complain..only to have it come back. This will end up a 2-4 or possibly 3-6 inch event The EC ensembles are not enthused; they're heading SE into an abyss of nothingness. The op is pretty warm--probably more wet than white for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 No the strong idea really was never an option..This has always looked like a light to moderate event. Honestly how many times over the yrs do we see this? Models lose something..the ensembles have it..and then about 48-72 hours out, the op runs bring it back. It's funny to watch the same people get upset, cancel it, whine, complain..only to have it come back. This will end up a 2- 4 or possibly 3-6 inch event I hope you're right but you may be going down with the ship if you hold on to this one much longer, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I hope you're right but you may be going down with the ship if you hold on to this one much longer, I'm willing to bet that the inch that's progged for tonight will be more than this system will yield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The EC ensembles are not enthused; they're heading SE into an abyss of nothingness. The op is pretty warm--probably more wet than white for most. It's a light to mod event which is all this ever was supposed to be..unless you thought that 1 Euro run was going to happen. Throw in the towel..You always do. And also assume the Euro is right with 55-60 and rain and wind on Xmas Day. It's 8 days away so it will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It's a light to mod event which is all this ever was supposed to be..unless you thought that 1 Euro run was going to happen. Throw in the towel..You always do. And also assume the Euro is right with 55-60 and rain and wind on Xmas Day. It's 8 days away so it will happen man I would have loved to have been on the Titanic with you. You would have had me convinced that all we hit was a patch of rough waters when the ship was tilted sideways Lol. seriously there is a little more time on Christmas to see some changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Kevin is almost there. I can feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 man I would have loved to have been on the Titanic with you. You would have had me convinced that all we hit was a patch of rough waters when the ship was tilted sideways Lol. seriously there is a little more time on Christmas to see some changes. Well I mean anyone is free to ride the op runs..I'll take my chances on the ensembles. If they move twds the op runs of just northern stream light snow..then so be it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 outside of se ct, i live in about the worst place of all of sne for snow ( i dont care how anyone tries to spin the 48 inch average which i have not come up with in the ten years i have been measuring where i live). furthermore despite all of that in the past few years even I have seen 30 inch snowpack, a storm just under two feet and one of a foot and a half, another pack of just under 20 inches and so on sure the goods have been remarkably better in many other parts of sne but if we can pull off another relatively snowy year then we are so unbelievably ahead of the game. does anyone remember the 80s?? nne and not just upslope favored places are alarmingly overdue for a big winter or several of them, if it turns out to be their turn so be it. all of the upcoming talk about the pattern change is super sexy and it sounds like regardless of how great or not great it ends up there should be plenty to track across the country and up the east coast. no comments about caps or punctuation, im tired. Come to Westerly, RI. Average about 20" a season and so far this year I've recorded 1 trace of snow. Coming from Buffalo,NY which has already received close to 110" this season, it's actually somewhat refreshing (please don't ban me for that statement, lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 man I would have loved to have been on the Titanic with you. You would have had me convinced that all we hit was a patch of rough waters when the ship was tilted sideways Lol. seriously there is a little more time on Christmas to see some changes. Kevin is almost there. I can feel it. LOL. Melting faster than an Al Gore ice sheet. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Kevin is almost there. I can feel it.I can feel it coming in the air tonight. Oh torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I can feel it coming in the air tonight. Oh torch. Ensembles look like nothing really. "enter the drums" ba boom ba boom ba boom boom boom boom boom....I can feel it..coming in the air tonight....meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 This events sucks, which allows xmas to cut. Terrible month....can't be in the rear view mirror quickly enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Ensembles look like nothing really. "enter the drums" ba boom ba boom ba boom boom boom boom boom....I can feel it..coming in the air tonight....meltdown. Well the trend this cold season has been for systems to look terrible on models and trends closer and north as we get closer..Maybe this one finally reverses that trend. You are noted as forecasting no snow from this here..just for posterity sake. Let's see how the next 2 days trend.. that's what I'll do anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 there is just a lot of subsidence and ridging along the East Coast ahead of the system and things get sheared out. when you look at the storm along the Gulf Coast as it begins to push northeastward it doesn't look much different than it did originally but it looks like it just hit a brick wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It's ovah Kev, time to settle in for a long winters nap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 AMOUT... Kids are mad at me because no white Xmas .. How is it my fault? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It's ovah Kev, time to settle in for a long winters nap. Possible sure..but as of now there's enough support to not give up on a few inches. If this one does miss though there's nothing till after New Years unfortunately..so you'd be looking at another 11-15 days of no snow. Heck of a way to run an epic winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Kevin is almost there. I can feel it. Just wait'll Christmas Eve. Personally the models looked pretty benign overnight. De-amplified hot mess of a system right now. Looks like that northern s/w screws the pooch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Possible sure..but as of now there's enough support to not give up on a few inches. If this one does miss though there's nothing till after New Years unfortunately..so you'd be looking at another 11-15 days of no snow. Heck of a way to run an epic winter Two words for winter 14-15...Life Support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Kevin is almost there. I can feel it.So are you though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 This one looks a lot uglier than it did ont he 12z runs yesterdya, though I still wouldn't rule out accumulating snow in the interior. But the consolation prize might be more like a 1-3 event vs a solid advisory event. But there is still time on this one to change. As an aside, not trying to pick on anyone in particular, but I don't ever remember people having so much confidence in deterministic NWP at 5-8 days this year than on here this cold season so far. Probably part of the reason we see mini-meltdowns based off 156 hour solutions turning crappier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Just wait'll Christmas Eve. Personally the models looked pretty benign overnight. De-amplified hot mess of a system right now. Looks like that northern s/w screws the pooch. Well I thought this would look better inland, but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 So are you though. Well I guess you read none of my posts. All going as planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Well I guess you read none of my posts. All going as planned.No I did. I read the ones where you were talking about how this winter won't be a blockbuster unless we get a good snowfall in December, like somehow 12 hours difference between 12/31 and 1/1 would matter.I didn't, however, read your clarification that by blockbuster you meant one of the best winters ever, until just now. Nobody likes rain on Christmas. It will get to all of us if it happens like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 This one looks a lot uglier than it did ont he 12z runs yesterdya, though I still wouldn't rule out accumulating snow in the interior. But the consolation prize might be more like a 1-3 event vs a solid advisory event. But there is still time on this one to change. As an aside, not trying to pick on anyone in particular, but I don't ever remember people having so much confidence in deterministic NWP at 5-8 days this year than on here this cold season so far. Probably part of the reason we see mini-meltdowns based off 156 hour solutions turning crappier. Patience is wearing thin for sure. Sometimes I like to go back to model runs from 200+ hours previous for the current run 0hr and compare just to keep my sanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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