JC-CT Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Stinks for s of the pike locales. Hills should have a colder sleet. The sleet is expected to accumulate better in the NE hills of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Essentially this is what the Euro has been advertising outside of maybe one or tw really amped up runs...pellets make it to ORH over to your area or even a bit north...but not before a 6-8 hour snow blitz. I mean, maybe we get lucky and hold onto all snow, but I don't think so...Euro solution has been fairly consistent in showing this. can you explain swfe again to me, I see a lot of east flow and SE at 7h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 A little warmer than 12z...but RGEM was definitely still on the colder side. We've really got to ride the Rgem..until it lets us down..and last winter it did not. Plus we know the profile temp problems the GFS has had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 My forecast nam is colder storm and ecwmf is cold storm and 12 gfs is cold too . I say heavy snow wed into wed night for ct area with totals 6- 11 inches including the hartford area . Some weather people just change their forecast just every time models or one does a change . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 whiteminster may jackpot Perhaps, although subdude might get .04" more than me...Since I'm relatively close to route 2 the urban heat island effect off the highway pavement tends to limit accumulations.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 We've really got to ride the Rgem..until it lets us down..and last winter it did not. Plus we know the profile temp problems the GFS has had. The RGEM I'll trust more at 00Z, although the 18Z was close to the 12Z run the off hour RGEM runs tend to be very poor, if something did indeed get caught by the US models at 18Z it may not have been by the RGEM yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Thinking this 5 HVN 6 -7HFD 8-9 TOL 10-12 ORH 5-6 Gay(warmer BL issues) 2-4 BOS 12-14 SNH over to MPM Sleet making it to the CT/Mass border but only for an hour or 2 after 8+ hours of mod-hvy snow and then a flip back to lighter snow overnight in T-giving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 My forecast nam is colder storm and ecwmf is cold storm and 12 gfs is cold too . I say heavy snow wed into wed night for ct area with totals 6- 11 inches including the hartford area . Some weather people just change their forecast just every time models or one does a change .Please wear your seat belt while traveling tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Stinks for s of the pike locales. Hills should have a colder sleet. you might want to run some GFS soundings for Ne of the Pike on the CP, ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 In fact I just saw BOX map and this pretty much is exactly how I would whip it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Thinking this 5 HVN 6 -7HFD 8-9 TOL 10-12 ORH 5-6 Gay(warmer BL issues) 2-4 BOS 12-14 SNH over to MPM Sleet making it to the CT/Mass border but only for an hour or 2 after 8+ hours of mod-hvy snow and then a flip back to lighter snow overnight in T-giving What is the model blend/adjustments you are using? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Tossing in the towel here. Probably just going to be a lot of junk. Seems to be making some unfavorable shifts for a decent amount of folks. Still should be a good thump regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm willing to bet sleet blows through CT, then is met w resistance in s ORH co. Stroke all the soundings you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Next one is ours coastal folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 can you explain swfe again to me, I see a lot of east flow and SE at 7h I know it's a made up term in the first place, and I know we've mentioned it with this storm but that's more because it acts like one for a bit. As Scott said though, the warmth is really SW to NE, not racing in from the SW like a typical SWFE would be. This system just happens to be highly sloped to the cold side, rather than having some parent low over BUF pumping in warmth aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yikes....pinging into GC. Congrats PF--we knew you'd come through in the end. 45.3/26 I don't see any sleet on the 18z NAM or GFS soundings for PSF. I think you'll be fine. This has the looks of a great storm for GC as we should avoid sleet and get a solid dose of QPF. Even the GFS would imply near a foot for you and I with the NAM closing in on 18" for the northern Berkshires and S VT. While the NAM is likely a bit overdone, I think we'll do well. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 can you explain swfe again to me, I see a lot of east flow and SE at 7h Look at the wind above 700mb or even 600mb-500mb...not at 850mb....ripping out of the S/SW. That's why the warm punch is so high up. That's gonna come screaming in from the SW...but it also helps in causing a nice WCB thump in front of it. But I'm pretty confident I'll taste sleet even north of the pike...but hopefully not after a big thump before hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 What is the model blend/adjustments you are using? Stop worrying so much about what this model or that model says. You know your clime. You'll easily be in the 4-6 inch range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm willing to bet sleet blows through CT, then is met w resistance in s ORH co. Stroke all the soundings you want. Just saying what the GFS shows, congrats on melting 4 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Like Jerry said yesterday: time and again, Euro speaks, the rest dance around but inevitably follow. Will ride RGEM's coattails from last winter until it caves. Does it handle the intense VV's better and hold off the mid-level warmth more accurately than 18z NAM/GFS? Someone will blink in the 0z suite. After which I plan to double down on The Weather Channel's forecast made this afternoon: 5-8" for Boston / 8-12" most of SNE with lollis to 12-18". That's the most likely forecast right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Next one is ours coastal folks Nothing until second half of December at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Now we have 3 hours of people crying about sleet.. awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Like Jerry said yesterday: time and again, Euro speaks, the rest dance around but inevitably follow. Will ride RGEM's coattails from last winter until it caves. Does it handle the intense VV's better and hold off the mid-level warmth more accurately than 18z NAM/GFS? Someone will blink in the 0z suite. After which I plan to double down on The Weather Channel's forecast made this afternoon: 5-8" for Boston / 8-12" most of SNE with lollis to 12-18". That's the most likely forecast right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The GFS has some funky soundings. I wonder how this would verify here: A lot of dry air from H5-H6 with the coldest temp below that in the column of about -6C to -7C...but completely below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The warmer air is lined up more SW-NE not typical SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The GFS has some funky soundings. I wonder how this would verify here: image.jpg A lot of dry air from H5-H6 with the coldest temp below that in the column of about -6C to -7C...but completely below freezing. Dry tongue already moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I don't see any sleet on the 18z NAM or GFS soundings for PSF. I think you'll be fine. This has the looks of a great storm for GC as we should avoid sleet and get a solid dose of QPF. Even the GFS would imply near a foot for you and I with the NAM closing in on 18" for the northern Berkshires and S VT. While the NAM is likely a bit overdone, I think we'll do well. Enjoy! I don't know why this is still getting hashed out, but for MPM...the best spots have always and continue to be GC/Berks to SNH/Lakes Region to the Maine interior plain and foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Now we have 3 hours of people crying about sleet.. awesome No QPF concerns anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The warmer air is lined up more SW-NE not typical SWFE. marine influence NE mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Stop worrying so much about what this model or that model says. You know your clime. You'll easily be in the 4-6 inch range I'm not worrying. I'm not really sure what my climo is for November 26, but it probably leans toward rain. I'd be worrying if I had a map out there that had 12-18 for most of SNE. Hey look at that. TWC just cut their map significantly for i84 and SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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