SR Airglow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Should of said not an even blend. Weighted more towards euro but taking rgem into consideration off its great year last winter. OK, makes sense then. He thinks the snow will make it to Worcester, then perhaps hits a roadblock before peeling back away from the Worcester area. That does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 He thinks the snow will make it to Worcester, then perhaps hits a roadblock before peeling back away from the Worcester area.He's inept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 If somehow the NAM and GFS end up right this is one heck of a snow job by the euro (unfortunately not literally) inside 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm interested to see Phils final map this evening. He's been gung ho on low level warming near the coast. Maybe he adjusted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Lol that wording makes it sound like the snow reaches ORH and then moves no further north and the precip shield collapses back SE In other words he is considering the possibility of rain changing to snow in the Worcester area but the rain/snow line makes no further progression to the north or east. He didn't elaborate except to say he is considering changing his forecast for the 10 PM forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 He's inept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 That makes no sense... If you take into account that the water temperature surrounding the North East are still running around 49-50 degrees, this actually makes perfect sense. The overrunning warmth (as shown in both the 18z GFS and 18z NAM now) bring the 850mb, 700mb temps above freezing from southern CT through Boston along a curve. If this storm was the middle of January, I'd completely agree, but the water is just too damn warm right now to NOT play major impact in the coastal front / potent surge in warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Pete B has definitely been taking the cap off his sharpie and sniffing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Not sure how the water temp will affect snow in ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Models always waffle at this time range. The general idea is there now. 0z will be telling. It could waffle right back colder with the mid levels. If it stays put it may be more of a non event on the e ma coast than we thought earlier today/last night potentially. As Scott says, if you are Kev to ORH to NE MA outside 128 your safe for plowable snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Scooter .. Come out come out wherever you are.. Time to put some numbers down BDL ORH GAY BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Pete B has definitely been taking the cap off his sharpie and sniffing it Haha he may verify. It's identical to the RPM output. Or if we taint severely with sleet. He may be right for the wrong reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Best ever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Not sure how the water temp will affect snow in ORH The supply of warm 50 degree air surounding all of MA is unlimited, and will infiltrate the lower levels of the atmosphere, while the cold air in place to the north is very limited as it is only November. I do believe Worcester will stay all snow, but will be just west of the main battle ground for meaningful snowfall precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 What are the other TV mets in Boston saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 What are the other TV mets in Boston saying? you have the best mets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 If you take into account that the water temperature surrounding the North East are still running around 49-50 degrees, this actually makes perfect sense. The overrunning warmth (as shown in both the 18z GFS and 18z NAM now) bring the 850mb, 700mb temps above freezing from southern CT through Boston along a curve. If this storm was the middle of January, I'd completely agree, but the water is just too damn warm right now to NOT play major impact in the coastal front / potent surge in warm air. The concept of ageostrophic flow eludes you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJBASHB Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 He probably meant to say, or said, the change over to sleet could make it to Worcester before peeling away. Makes sense if you play for team warm tongue. I like where I sit with for this storm but would welcome a decent east shift. I'd take a colder, saturated sounding over a little more QPF and upper level dry slot issues. Snowsand isn't going to pile up much better than sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 if a mods available...please help immediately in nyc storm thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Scooter .. Come out come out wherever you are.. Time to put some numbers down BDL ORH GAY BOS i'll play along BDL 6" ORH 9" GAY 6" BOS 4" and for bonus points MHT 8" CON 10" edited to add MBY in Arlington 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NBC 30 in CT(Ryans Station) has upped their amounts from earlier today. They now have 4-8 inches(upped from 3-6) for interior portions of CT, and 8-12 inches(up from 6-10) for the Northwest portion of the state. Hey, I'm happy it's going to snow period. For this time of the year, this is fabulous. Enjoy whatever you get everybody. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Just a few thoughts. TAN 1" TOL 7" GAY 4" BOS 0" ORH 8" BDL 6" PVD 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 that was classic though lol. For all the wrong reasons unfortunately Agree with the axis of where people are safe for plowable, but I think we can pull that a bit further east perhaps assuming the the 0z suite does not follow the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is pulling a thanksgiving 2002, a borderline early season setup that is getting milder and milder as we get closer for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Just a few thoughts. TAN 1" TOL 7" GAY 4" BOS 0" ORH 8" BDL 6" PVD 1" Kind of Seeming more and more like it now isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Even if we get skunked in Boston the sunset was worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Even if we get skunked in Boston the sunset was worth it. quincy2.jpg That's a fantastic photo! FWIW(Probably not a ton but worth mentioning), the RAP looks to be soundly on the colder side of guidance towards the end of it's run, which is interesting given that it's usually biased warm in it's LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Phils map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Even if we get skunked in Boston the sunset was worth it. quincy2.jpg Daaaaaamn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Phils map That is more in line with my thinking. I might even cut it back a bit S to N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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