SnowMan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 While the temps at 700mb climb on this run, the 850mb line stays well south of it. What will that produce in precip type at the surface? sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 That's a lot of pingers on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 While the temps at 700mb climb on this run, the 850mb line stays well south of it. What will that produce in precip type at the surface? Probably a hard hat situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Don't look like the 18z Nam is backing down..........lol Good grief it has snows back to SYR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 While the temps at 700mb climb on this run, the 850mb line stays well south of it. What will that produce in precip type at the surface? Sleet. Even if it does punch to the NH border late in the game, pretty immaterial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 we should just not look at all well thats true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Probably a hard hat situation Sleet, b**ch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Holy $hit I want that right now lol. Probably gulf convection causing it to go ape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Good grief it has snows back to SYR. lol, 1.5"+ here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I know most don't like it, but I think the simulated radar on this NAM run is a solid depiction of where the sleet/rain should get to vs. where it should stay snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'll eat my ski hat if we get 1" of QPF up here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sleet, b**ch. Along with beer goggles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 verbatim those mid level temps would hurt accums significantly in Central /E mass 288 countour ML low over N. Adams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sleet. Even if it does punch to the NH border late in the game, pretty immaterial. NAM solution would def cut into the expected amounts because it rips it so far north and earlier than other guidance. But I'm not really concerned about it given the SREFs that just ran, along with the more reliable RGEM/ECMWF blend. NAM always has a couple of steroid runs during coastals...this is probably one of them. The "give 35 inches of snow to N NJ in Feb 2013" NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think I would take it...yes we get close to pellets here, but a ton of snow beforehand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Look at the 6 hr difference from 21hr this run and 27 hr on its 12z run. Looks so weird that it could jump the low position that much in one run. That's why I don't trust the 18z ever.Haven't looked, but it's possible convection is doing weird things. However dismissing an 18z run in favor of 12z and 00z runs while only 24 hrs out makes little sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Haven't looked, but it's possible convection is doing weird things. However dismissing an 18z run in favor of 12z and 00z runs while only 24 hrs out makes little sense. You are right when comparing NAM to NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM solution would def cut into the expected amounts because it rips it so far north and earlier than other guidance. But I'm not really concerned about it given the SREFs that just ran, along with the more reliable RGEM/ECMWF blend. NAM always has a couple of steroid runs during coastals...this is probably one of them. The "give 35 inches of snow to N NJ in Feb 2013" NAM run. I didn't care enough to entertain what a verbaitm verification of this run would entail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Haven't looked, but it's possible convection is doing weird things. However dismissing an 18z run in favor of 12z and 00z runs while only 24 hrs out makes little sense. I think the discount 18z runs ship sailed a long time ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Haven't looked, but it's possible convection is doing weird things. However dismissing an 18z run in favor of 12z and 00z runs while only 24 hrs out makes little sense. In general, no, but I'm dismissing this run. Ring the bell....file to the door, not even any homework. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Lets look at the RGEM and GFS next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 That's a lot of pingers on the NAM Euro has also been showing that concern over the past couple days though... sleet could really cut into totals with a quick hitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The NAM is obviously quite warm upstairs - but so is the GFS and the Euro to some extent. The 12z NAM was definitely on the coldest side of guidance. Not a huge surprise it trended warmer. An overtrend? Probably but pingers certainly seem like a good idea up to HFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 wrote this last night... NAM should have drug-testing prior to each run Not advocating any particular solution, but I do wonder how much the outburst of convection off the Carolinas hours 15-21 is dragging this system a little northwest. Not a "weenie" wish. I raised the same question on 18Z last night which was a huge hit for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 In general, no, but I'm dismissing this run. Ring the bell....file to the door, not even any homework. I think the more correct thing to say would be "I'm just dismissing the NAM"...as in the model in general. But I agree with Scooter about the 18z myth...that argument used to have a bit more weight, but not these days. My general problem with the NAM is that it doesn't show an ability to be consistent...some models are consistent so when you see it make a move, it is more believable. The NAM is a highly volatile model that makes wild swings and can drive you nuts if you try and think each one is a sign that the system is trending one way or the other. So I'll await the 18z RGEM/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM slam dumps then pings, shows one of those situations where best omega comes up to about ORH, dumps a quick 4-6 while North east of there is in the 1-3 then races the 7h ahead of the omega so that NE of ORH gets pelted before they can get ripped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Clown maps should be highly entertaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Perhaps it is my weenie goggles, but sleet often seems to come into play earlier/farther north than modeled/accepted. You may weenie me now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Latent heat release? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The 18z NAM tried to develop a double low off of the Outer Banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.