HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm about to succumb to my fears I think. Unless this ticks east last minute, my goose may be cooked. Mike, did you hack Flag-boy's account? It will be hard for you right along the coast to get much, unless the wind turns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I don't really agree, but what BOX says doesn't matter. If you are near 128, you are caring more about the mid levels. If you are near BOS, the lower level is most important. 5 miles could mean a coating or 6". That's what it comes down to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The hills of Arlington could produce 5" while Somerville gets 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 not sure when, BOX snowfall map upped totals significantly... 4-6 right into metro Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 high or low? low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The point: the experience itself and the three or four coldish days with low sun following it--so several days of white before it warms up and we wait for the next cold spell with storm development in mid December or thereabouts (unless the models have it wrong and we get it earlier). Unfortunately, we live in a SNE climate not UP Michigan or Duluth MN. We've got to enjoy what we get when we get it. But he's in Maine, not SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I don't really agree, but what BOX says doesn't matter. If you are near 128, you are caring more about the mid levels. If you are near BOS, the lower level is most important. 5 miles could mean a coating or 6". That's what it comes down to. Its pointless, 06z ticked NW, Now we see if that holds or it goes back,12z is what matters next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 high or low? Either side but he was pointing to Boston where he had 1-3 and kind of inferred low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Usually CFs on models are probably a few miles too far NW. The resolution will never really have the ability to properly define it, but we can get the idea. The 6z models actually push it west towards Newton-Stoneham area as the models came west a bit with the low. The part that I don't get from the BOX disco yesterday was the round about way of going at the rain/snow line and 32F isotherm. It will be snow on the otherside of the CF. It will wetbulb down to 32 or a hair below. It's basic climo. On the otherside of the CF, you may have 33-34F parachutes or white rain. This depends on how strong the lift is. But make no mistake, the other side of the CF will be near or below 32 for sure..I don't care how close to the coast it is. You can have a boiling sea of hot water in Boston harbor and it will be snow on the other side of that CF, noi matter how close to the coast it is. You aren't getting marine taint on a 360 wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I don't really agree, but what BOX says doesn't matter. If you are near 128, you are caring more about the mid levels. If you are near BOS, the lower level is most important. 5 miles could mean a coating or 6". That's what it comes down to. Agree. Everything else is splitting model history hairs. Here's to hoping 12z RGEM holds colder for Boston area. But not liking the 60F dawn commute this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Joe Furey is backing down on the Connecticut River Valley and the lower elevations, still holding the 6 to 10 inches for the hills especially above 800 feet ASOUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 But he's in Maine, not SNE. Then even less whining is permitted! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The new NWS products are really cool. The town by town tables are interesting. Can someone provide a link or insight into how they are generated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This may be a classic Braintree split CF. Early season events love that area for coastal fronts. Extend that SSW. Yes right at that union street exit. I've seen it there many times. Taking that turn after Best Buy is the climb favored spot on this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yes right at that union street exit. I've seen it there many times. Taking that turn after Best Buy is the climb favored spot on this setup Yeah, tough pill to swallow, but the foe can turn into a friend later in the cold season. It's good to get a November event for sure across the region. Hopefully a sign of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Will the warmth of the ground prevent many of the higher totals from happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 How much of rgem is sleet though? Looks great for CT but not sure it's all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 Will the warmth of the ground prevent many of the higher totals from happening? It is a non-factor in moderate to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It is a non-factor in moderate to heavy snow. But there isn't going to be any of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 How much of rgem is sleet though? Looks great for CT but not sure it's all snow. Looked like little to none outside of SECT which maybe gets a tenth to a quarter QPF as sleet. Here's the Meteocentre map whichlooks pretty close to accurate from looking at the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 New srefs are juicy to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 FWIW, the cooler air is working in. It's being off-set by the diurnal heating, but the DP has come down 16* so far since midnight. 51.5/38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 How much of rgem is sleet though? Looks great for CT but not sure it's all snow.None.. All snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Do any of the mets see anything with the current radar / surface maps / pressure falls, that indicate whether things are going one way or the other (east, vs. west)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yeah, tough pill to swallow, but the foe can turn into a friend later in the cold season. It's good to get a November event for sure across the region. Hopefully a sign of things to come. It's usually either stalled at the split, or the nw corner of brookline. Other times its farther inland but those 2 locales seem to be magnets for CF stalling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 New srefs are juicy to say the least. Just peeking at them now. 700mb 0c line gets up to the South Coast of RI and into SE MA (TAN/GHG) at peak. 850s do the same, maybe a hair further inland (10mi). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 New srefs are juicy to say the least. Please check the JMA next and update us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Please check the JMA next and update us. I hear ya...... Should be a fun storm even if cold rain. It's 11/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sref are really bullish on snow amounts in interior SE mass. Even jumped up from when I checked last night. Mean of 10" or so now. I am fairly confident that is overdone unless we get a perfect scenario I am a bit more bullish than box and most forecasts though. I think we could do 4-6 of heavy wet snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 There's def going to be a sharp mid level warm front. Just along that and slightly north of it is where things could go crazy. It really slows its progress north as it gets into interior SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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