HoarfrostHubb Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I was merely stating what the map showed. Chill, gunsmoke. Lol. It was on BOXs FB right after your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 We'll have to watch that the trough doesn't really tilt and propel the low due north, but at a rather significant distance off the coast...may leave spots west of ORH a little befuddled. We'll have to watch for that. Nice little CT Valley cutter, lol. Sling-shot up into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Lol. It was on BOXs FB right before your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Why only pay attention when they're further west? I don't understand why it's meaningful in one direction but not the other. Because the ensembles always have some members that don't develop a given storm, resulting in a flat wave moving well out-to-sea. At this range, you never see all the members of the ensembles on board for a major snowstorm. When you have a decent percentage of members showing no storm, it tends to tilt the mean track well east...if you only used the members that really develop the storm, then the mean track would shift farther west closer to the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Lol. It was on BOXs FB right before your post.Well dang...you are correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Torch! X-SECT and soundings will be critical. The fact that a coastal has been modelled is a good sign. There will be multiple chances me thinks. It's still Fall. I think a majority don't want a full fledged crippling snowstorm (although fun) for Thanksgiving other than the 99% of the posters in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Because the ensembles always have some members that don't develop a given storm, resulting in a flat wave moving well out-to-sea. At this range, you never see all the members of the ensembles on board for a major snowstorm. When you have a decent percentage of members showing no storm, it tends to tilt the mean track well east...if you only used the members that really develop the storm, then the mean track would shift farther west closer to the OP. You'll always have ones that are too wound up as well. I've seen the flatter solutions verify this season so it's not always going to be a case where they are too far east, but I understand what you mean. The lower resolution can increase the number of flatter solutions. Again, all you can say is that some impact is likely, but it's way too early to entertain amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Not bad. A handful of members on-board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Not bad. A handful of members on-board. Clusters are pretty impressive, all 4 of the clusters have measurable in NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 You'll always have ones that are too wound up as well. I've seen the flatter solutions verify this season so it's not always going to be a case where they are too far east, but I understand what you mean. The lower resolution can increase the number of flatter solutions. Again, all you can say is that some impact is likely, but it's way too early to entertain amounts. I think the SE bias is more evident in the GEFS than the EC ENS...the EC ENS seem to more closely parallel the OP than on the NCEP suite. Since all the operationals are intent on developing this system, I think we can discount most ensemble members that are completely flat. Especially with the GFS trending towards the ECM in its handling of the northern stream/polar vortex feature. Having that polar vortex farther south with such a juicy southern wave is going to make it hard not to get a system near the coast. I also find the GFS usually trends northwest on coastals and SWFEs to meet the ECM. The southeast bias has gotten more subtle over the years but it still exists...anytime I see a sheared out low near the Southeast Coast on the GFS in the mid-range (from like 96-168 hours) I tend to think we might have a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Well whatever we end up getting.. Hopefully we can keep it OTG and add to it leading up to Christmas .. Maybe lock it in with some ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think the SE bias is more evident in the GEFS than the EC ENS...the EC ENS seem to more closely parallel the OP than on the NCEP suite. Since all the operationals are intent on developing this system, I think we can discount most ensemble members that are completely flat. Especially with the GFS trending towards the ECM in its handling of the northern stream/polar vortex feature. Having that polar vortex farther south with such a juicy southern wave is going to make it hard not to get a system near the coast. I also find the GFS usually trends northwest on coastals and SWFEs to meet the ECM. The southeast bias has gotten more subtle over the years but it still exists...anytime I see a sheared out low near the Southeast Coast on the GFS in the mid-range (from like 96-168 hours) I tend to think we might have a threat. I agree to a point, but you have to be careful with model assumptions. The euro is awfully amped up at times as well. It's had some awful 4-5 day flops already this season. That's why we can massage all the biases in our heads sometimes when we talk about storm tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Not bad. A handful of members on-board. Can we cherry pick the ones we want............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Have the grasshoppers opened their eyes? Ah grasshopper patience is a virtue. Can not stress enough, even if this particular threat is wasted how much this fall pattern eventually will produce. You just can't put the NA cryosphere in that depth of snow and cold without resultant high speed jet interaction and boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Have the grasshoppers opened their eyes? Ah grasshopper patience is a virtue. Can not stress enough, even if this particular threat is wasted how much this fall pattern eventually will produce. You just can't put the NA cryosphere in that depth of snow and cold without resultant high speed jet interaction and boom. This is a great post. We started coastals as fall unfolded. Now we have winter on our doorstep. Kevin, it will be hard to hold into unless it's 12+ which is not likely. But by mid December we'll be in the teeth of it. One rockin winter on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I agree to a point, but you have to be careful with model assumptions. The euro is awfully amped up at times as well. It's had some awful 4-5 day flops already this season. That's why we can massage all the biases in our heads sometimes when we talk about storm tracks. Yeah like the non-existant storm it had for yesterday about a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Nice little CT Valley cutter, lol. Sling-shot up into New England. Wouldn't that be a turd in the eggnog. Can we cherry pick the ones we want............ Isn't that what it's all about? Thanks for the comments on the ensemble e/w question. Helpful reading. I can't stay up late any more for model runs, but I hope they'll be ripe in the morning. 33.2/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Our friend Walt Drag wrote most of this afd. I'm particularly interested because I'm heading to one of the snowier areas of his area. May have to push it up to Tuesday night... http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I agree to a point, but you have to be careful with model assumptions. The euro is awfully amped up at times as well. It's had some awful 4-5 day flops already this season. That's why we can massage all the biases in our heads sometimes when we talk about storm tracks. It seems like we tend to remember the big storms and the ensemble members that were flat, but forget the fails that have ensemble members overly amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 So what are we 3.5-4 days away with tonights model runs? It gives me a bit of pause that the upgraded GFS has been pretty much consistently OTS. By no means am I weighting that, just something to think about. My guess is the euro shifts in line with the ensembles at 0z, and the gfs ticks west slightly again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 @Dsnowx53, I checked out your model page. Really nice, good job...I already bookmarked it. Thanks a lot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Me like the GC forecast. Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Cold with highs in the upper 30s.Wednesday Night: Snow likely. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of snow 60 percent.Thanksgiving Day: Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow. Cold with highs in the upper 30s.Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Lows in the mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 @Dsnowx53, I checked out your model page. Really nice, good job...I already bookmarked it. Thanks a lot! link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 @Dsnowx53, I checked out your model page. Really nice, good job...I already bookmarked it. Thanks a lot! Thanks for the kind words! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Thanks for the kind words! Yeah...you have some good stuff in there. Your 18z GFS HTML went a little haywire though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 link? http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/ That's for the NAM 12km, but there are also links to the GFS and GEFS on the top of the page. You can find them in my sig as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah...you have some good stuff in there. Your 18z GFS HTML went a little haywire though. Thanks Brian! Yeah my HTML skills aren't the greatest...not even sure what the issue is tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Thanks Brian! Yeah my HTML skills aren't the greatest...not even sure what the issue is tbh. Nice-looking graphics. Bookmarked here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Gfs looks like its going to be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS out to 102, about 6 hours faster and almost identical track, very similar to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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