forkyfork Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 this system has a great subtropical connection. i think most places will get snow from the front end thump regardless of any changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 Man, you are really pessimistic on this. GFS was actually qualitatively similar to 12z, just quantitatively more robust. General 6-12". Lightest near the NY state border, heaviest from Milford to Norwood. I think that snow map is bonkers, but that is what it depicts. Given his location ,its easier to be pessimistic...he might torch on a 040 wind. Your location is in a much better spot even though it is still the CP. I'm in ORH for the holiday weekend, so I've got even more leeway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I keep for getting that you've moved...I'd be reserved living s of Boston,too. The GFS map seems to liberal with accumulations over se MA, but its irrelevant, I guess. I think interior SE mass would be fine with a gfs like depiction. Might be paste like, but its better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Ray and forky on board, snow is coming all! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 GEFS mean is still pretty far east, but it has a good bulge in the isobars to the west, so there must be some pretty good members in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I keep for getting that you've moved...I'd be reserved living s of Boston,too. The GFS map seems to liberal with accumulations over se MA, but its irrelevant, I guess. I can rack em up when it's colder, but tough this time of year. If temps aloft cooperate it can work, but otherwise it's more CF location dependent. Boston is in the same boat, but being a tick NW helps. The fact this pins the CF near the city is a good thing, but -0.5C at 950 isn't the best with a NE wind for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Man what awful day 6-10 guesses I've had this season. If we somehow have an extended torch during December, blizzard24 can have my degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Man am i pumped for this.We surmised this was a possibility last week and sure as sam..it appears to be coming true. 6-12 OTG as we dig into pumpkin pie and stuffing...watching the Cowboys roll lose 8-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 And Ray for the record, I'm not down...I'm just telling it how it is. I don't want you to think that I'm trying to Moneypitmike us all. I'm well aware there is a lot of time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 GEFS mean is still pretty far east, but it has a good bulge in the isobars to the west, so there must be some pretty good members in there. So I gotta ask...what in the world are the two OP runs seeing of the GFS/ECM that their lower resolution ensemble members aren't? Granted it's not uncommon in these storms to have the ensemble means be east as at 120 hours out there are most certainly members that see no storm at all bringing down the mean. But why are the OPs going crazy in the last 12-24 hours that nothing else is seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Man what awful day 6-10 guesses I've had this season. If we somehow have an extended torch during December, blizzard24 can have my degree. Probably would not venture into a casino right now unless you want to feed the indians Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 GEFS mean is still pretty far east, but it has a good bulge in the isobars to the west, so there must be some pretty good members in there. Yeah there should be a decent amount of members clustered to the west there. I am probably heading to Long Island Tue so I need something like the GFS to pan out to have even a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 So I gotta ask...what in the world are the two OP runs seeing of the GFS/ECM that their lower resolution ensemble members aren't? Granted it's not uncommon in these storms to have the ensemble means be east as at 120 hours out there are most certainly members that see no storm at all bringing down the mean. But why are the OPs going crazy in the last 12-24 hours that nothing else is seeing? The higher resolution of the OP runs will probably tend to handle the vortmax interaction and jet streaks with more robustness. It doesn't mean they are correct, but IF those vortmaxima and jet streaks tend to be pretty strong, then usually the OP runs will do better at handling them. But the reason the ensemble mean still scores better than the OP models at this range is that those features aren't always stronger or in the correct locations to semi-phase like the OP runs do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Given his location ,its easier to be pessimistic...he might torch on a 040 wind. Your location is in a much better spot even though it is still the CP. I'm in ORH for the holiday weekend, so I've got even more leeway. I know, I keep forgetting that he's south of town now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The higher resolution of the OP runs will probably tend to handle the vortmax interaction and jet streaks with more robustness. It doesn't mean they are correct, but IF those vortmaxima and jet streaks tend to be pretty strong, then usually the OP runs will do better at handling them. But the reason the ensemble mean still scores better than the OP models at this range is that those features aren't always stronger or in the correct locations to semi-phase like the OP runs do. GEFS are consistently east to a fault. The fact that the op GFS matches the ECENS mean is telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 GEFS are consistently east to a fault. The fact that the op GFS matches the ECENS mean is telling. The Euro ENS are a nice compromise solution that gives snow to most of the coastal plain as the low takes a track somewhere between the amped 12z ECM and the east 18z GFS solution. The GEFS being east means nothing. I only pay attention when they are further west than the OP...that's a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The Euro ENS are a nice compromise solution that gives snow to most of the coastal plain as the low takes a track somewhere between the amped 12z ECM and the east 18z GFS solution. The GEFS being east means nothing. I only pay attention when they are further west than the OP...that's a red flag. Agreed 100%. They mean even less as we close in to go-time from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The higher resolution of the OP runs will probably tend to handle the vortmax interaction and jet streaks with more robustness. It doesn't mean they are correct, but IF those vortmaxima and jet streaks tend to be pretty strong, then usually the OP runs will do better at handling them. But the reason the ensemble mean still scores better than the OP models at this range is that those features aren't always stronger or in the correct locations to semi-phase like the OP runs do. Thanks ORH. It's just interesting that both of those models picked it up today...I think it's pretty cool that some small change in initial conditions caused them to all the sudden go "whoaaa we've got to put a storm on the east coast now". Let's just hope those conditions are still present at 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Seems to be some spiking the football early in some of the mass media Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Seems to be some spiking the football early in some of the mass media They're already whipped into a frenzy on the heels of the Lake effect orgy....coupled with the grandeur of the volume of travel that will coincide with the storm. BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 They're already whipped into a frenzy on the heels of the Lake effect orgy....coupled with the grandeur of the volume of travel that will coincide with the storm. BOOM This is the perfect storm of media nudity hype. It's going to be awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 18z GFS will some deformation love GC into VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 18z GFS will some deformation love GC into VT. You think that there may be a secondary maxima in association with the low level forcing attributable to the cf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 You think that there may be a secondary maxima in association with the low level forcing attributable to the cf?Could be given the maritime source region. However with this low developing and limiting really good E-NE flow to be prolonged in the 950-850 layer, it may not be a widespread enhancement...perhaps confined to a narrow spot? If this were to happen, sucking CF exhaust should not be a concern for you. This is a moisture bomb at all levels. I feel weird talking specifics, so the normal caveats apply this far out.Mind you I am speaking solely on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I wish this would tic east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 You think that there may be a secondary maxima in association with the low level forcing attributable to the cf? wow real early for that, don't fret yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 haha, the 18z Canadian/NOGAP has a New Jersey model nuke for next Saturday, too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I wish this would tic east. I think you mean you wish it would just work out and deliver snow... I mean, 12 hours ago, we were looking at needing some major west tickage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z GFS will some deformation love GC into VT. Yeah...the track of the H7 low was pretty favorable in the North Country for not playing a QPF queen at this juncture. I think we'd do better in that 18z GFS solution than a first glance at QPF would suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I wish this would tic east. Well if you consider how far out we are and how things could change...all else being equal...you're in a good spot for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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