CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 PD II had a classic example of what an entrance region can do. Many times, it's those right entrance regions that help develop the LLJ and overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The dual jet in classic form http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96-300MillibarMaps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Slow moving ones do, screamers not so much. I'd take a 75 mile bump NW though Right. We're fortunate its moving so quickly because that should prevent it from splitting ski mrg's pony tail. Still room for tickles, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 It's not an easy concept and I always find myself going back to the basics and asking like a 5 yr old "but why?" when I try to understand them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Nice negative tilt on the GFS too. This is legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Certainly the tempo for the week is one of 'coming together' rather than unraveling a potential. Just read NCEPs mid-range discussion and they are leaning toward more impact ... yet not committing fully. That, prior to the 12z run and the observations were making re the deep layer mechanics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 PD II had a classic example of what an entrance region can do. Many times, it's those right entrance regions that help develop the LLJ and overrunning. Thanks a lot. I didn't mean to derail the thread, though. If Will wants to split this off into a mother thread, that's fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 GEFS are still pretty far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Dendrite ... I was speaking to the 300mb specifically... The upper MA and NE regions, at 108 hours of this oper. GFS run are in this region: ..which presence a static tendency for lift prior to the arrival/slug of 500mb jet max... When that mid level superimposes up under these annotations above... Look out! I would suggest -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 DT banging drums **** ALERT **** EAST COAST WINTER STORM THREAT INCREASING FOR WED NIGHT / THURSDAY MORNING*** SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL PLANS ON THE EAST COAST rain on the coast is likely for eastern NC se VA delmarva NJ - EVEN in NYC& Long island .. hvy snow well inland ... Mix over I-95 / piedmont that ends as snow This should of been out hours earlier but I was just way too tired to and could NOT keep my eys open for the European. Sure enough of course the one night I decide not to when all hell breaks loose.The European model once again is taken the lead in developing an forecasting a significant East Coast winter storm. This is now the fourth run in a row the model has shown this system -- see image #1 -- whle the high resolution 13km GFS ( GFS PARA) has done and no other major flip flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I thought that two low setup looked suspicious. The euro yesterday was just trying to figure out which s/w to hang its hat on. If it's one low it's gonna be stronger and probably west. I like where you guys are sitting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Dendrite ... I was speaking to the 300mb specifically... The upper MA and NE regions, at 108 hours of this oper. GFS run are in this region: jet.jpg ..which presence a static tendency for lift prior to the arrival/slug of 500mb jet max... When that mid level superimposes up under these annotations above... Look out! I would suggest -- I know what you meant John. You said right exit in your original post. I just clarified that you meant right entrance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Slow moving ones do, screamers not so much. I'd take a 75 mile bump NW though Give it 150 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I know what you meant John. You said right exit in your original post. I just clarified that you meant right entrance. I teach the grandkids about the jet stream using the pool pump outlet and streams with rocks in them to explain mountains and flow. They seem to understand fluids better than air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 GGEM looked like it wanted to play then at the last minute exited stage right. Still would bring a light accumulating snowfall to Ginxy-BOS corridor and SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 That's odd..because Miller A's give your area your biggest snowfalls. You could probably make that statement for almost all areas. More often, they give me my biggest whiffs. Thanks, Scott and Dendrite for the explanations. I kind of understand (and kind of don't ). 29.4/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 You could probably make that statement for almost all areas. More often, they give me my biggest whiffs. Thanks, Scott and Dendrite for the explanations. I kind of understand (and kind of don't ). 29.4/15 I knew Haby would have something on this. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/charts/300/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 You could probably make that statement for almost all areas. More often, they give me my biggest whiffs. Thanks, Scott and Dendrite for the explanations. I kind of understand (and kind of don't ). 29.4/15 No. Miller Bs are more prolific for most of NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I knew Haby would have something on this. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/charts/300/ People should bookmark that site. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Good to see the massive shifts in the GFS continue in the new and improved version. Garbage in garbage out. They can increase the resolution all they want, but until the initialization improves (i.e. computing power) we'll suffer the consequences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Garbage in garbage out. They can increase the resolution all they want, but until the initialization improves (i.e. computing power) we'll suffer the consequences. At least the error will be higher res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 At least the error will be higher res. And we'll be able to use it every 3 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 Euro is gonna be another hit here at 12z. Doesn't look quite as amped as 00z...but it should still be a big impact. Regardless of all the details...lets just remind everyone that they don't matter yet. This is 4.5-5 days out still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Euro looks like a good hit albeit slower than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Euro is going to be amped up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 One thing for sure euro hasnt budged much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Yikes, warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 Actually, it ended up more amped than 00z...I stand corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Whoa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Lol ice interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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