Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Nice run, 7H looks amazing for us in ECT SE Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 12z Para GFS not so bulish wide right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Seems like a thread the needle setup. If this somehow produces, we will really be getting some great insight into this winter's persona. thread the needle is such an overused term, all that matters is that this develops closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Seems like a thread the needle setup. If this somehow produces, we will really be getting some great insight into this winter's persona. That's not how any of this works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Come see your Poppa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Nice look Surface is still a little warm...NYC's thicknesses are around 540 dam at 108 hours...Definitely a close call for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Well , the dreams of a White Tgiving are looking more real by the run. Is there any chance of this cutting inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Yeah, okay... The basic premise is still correct, but this "could" be coming along with a sneaky uniqueness about it. In the other thread I lampooned the Euro's 00z operation run... However, as the bold (above) states, there are aspects to consider upon deeper review. I was noticing at 108 hours on this oper. 12z GFS run, that the upper MA to NE regions are situated under the right exit region of an impressive 300 mb jet core. Velocities in amid that acceleration sheath are approaching 200kts! Meanwhile, though rarefied as an occurrence, this GFS run manages to conserve enough 500mb S/W mechanics as the impulse turns the corner over the SE, that there is potent DPVA and associated difluence/lift potential immediately astride the middle MA latitudes. Given to the 300mb positioning in concert with that riding up in latitude to kiss the Q-vector axis... yeah, I could see important cyclogenesis (albeit fast moving!) taking place from roughtly the VA Capes latitude to just off Cape Cod's marine interests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Come see your Poppa I was really puzzled when I started reading the GFS commentary. I know my model-reading skills aren't worth crap, but I was bewildered by the posts. Then I realized I had the 06z maps up. Can a brother get 50 miles further west? If we can see ensembles present promise and the EC continue with an amped solution, I'll be a lot more intrigued. Still so much time to go, though, so much agreement will help a lot in the world of the weenie. 26.0/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Gfs 50 to 75 miles would be a travel disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Having said all that... that surface cyclogenesis and track appear too far E to atone for the analytic observations about the deep layer mechanics. Also... wow what a classic Miller A system. That a is a pure east Gulf wave developing on a compressed thermal axis, then getting "hooked" by the passing S/W and up just off the Coast she comes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Yeah, okay... The basic premise is still correct, but this "could" be coming along with a sneaky uniqueness about it. In the other thread I lampooned the Euro's 00z operation run... However, as the bold (above) states, there are aspects to consider upon deeper review. I was noticing at 108 hours on this oper. 12z GFS run, that the upper MA to NE regions are situated under the right exit region of an impressive 300 mb jet core. Velocities in amid that acceleration sheath are approaching 200kts! Meanwhile, though rarefied as an occurrence, this GFS run manages to conserve enough 500mb S/W mechanics as the impulse turns the corner over the SE, that there is potent DPVA and associated difluence/lift potential immediately astride the middle MA latitudes. Given to the 300mb positioning in concert with that riding up in latitude to kiss the Q-vector axis... yeah, I could see important cyclogenesis (albeit fast moving!) taking place from roughtly the VA Capes latitude to just off Cape Cod's marine interests. Obviously you meant right entrance there. Boom shake shake shake the room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Canadian is a scraper, but west of 00z. That jet is amazing. 215-220kt at 250mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I'm telling you..Euro never fails with Gulf Miller A's..That's its bread and butter..Can't think of 1 it missed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 Yeah the jet streak is a very important part of this setup as dendrite scooter and tip have mentioned. We actually may have a bit of a dual jet setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Looks like a general 6-12", least in GC, with a bullseye around Norwood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Will, Scott, please explain the importance of the jet streak, as this is a pretty foreign concept to me. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Having said all that... that surface cyclogenesis and track appear too far E to atone for the analytic observations about the deep layer mechanics. Also... wow what a classic Miller A system. That a is a pure east Gulf wave developing on a compressed thermal axis, then getting "hooked" by the passing S/W and up just off the Coast she comes... I dread the Miller A. Fringe city and cirrus is many the outcome for folks in NW Mass/VT. But if we can continue to move this west, it could further complicate travel. Keep pesky in-laws at bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 Will, Scott, please explain the importance of the jet streak, as this is a pretty foreign concept to me. Thanks. A jet streak is a vet fast moving region of air in the upper levels. However we post them in two dimensional maps but tey are really three dimensional. A column of fast moving air. The laymans explanation is that on the right entrance region an left exit regions of the jet streak, you have rising air. This helps deepen low pressure systems and enhance lift for heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Nice run, 7H looks amazing for us in ECT SE Mass Caveat being that southern stream screamers usually bump nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Yeah the jet streak is a very important part of this setup as dendrite scooter and tip have mentioned. We actually may have a bit of a dual jet setup. Yes precisely what I was getting to by noting the 500mb catching up to the 300mb jet core... Right in there... boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 A jet streak is a vet fast moving region of air in the upper levels. However we post them in two dimensional maps but tey are really three dimensional. A column of fast moving air. The laymans explanation is that on the right entrance region an left exit regions of the jet streak, you have rising air. This helps deepen low pressure systems and enhance lift for heavy precip. Ah, I remember reading an article, I think by New York Metro weather, regarding how an elaborately well placed system of about 3 dual jet couplets aided in Sandy maintaining much of her ferocity in the transition from tropical to extra tropical. I remember that concept now. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Will, Scott, please explain the importance of the jet streak, as this is a pretty foreign concept to me. Thanks. There's lots on the web Ray... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=jet_streaks ...just one of many sources... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I dread the Miller A. Fringe city and cirrus is many the outcome for folks in NW Mass/VT. But if we can continue to move this west, it could further complicate travel. Keep pesky in-laws at bay. Miller A is not ideal for us, but its better and Miller 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Will, Scott, please explain the importance of the jet streak, as this is a pretty foreign concept to me. Thanks. Often, the jet stream contains "jet streaks" of wind speeds faster than the surrounding regions. These jet streaks can play an important role in precipitation and storm formation. Depending on the strength and position of a jet streak, a weak low pressure can quickly developing into a raging monster. Heres a link http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=basic-fronts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Here is a simple image to back up what Will said. Without getting complicated, winds at 300mb in a balanced world would parallel those height contours you see in white. Notice the vectors especially east of Cape Hatteras are actually crossing the height contours at an angle, and not paralleling them. This is the ageostrophic component of the jet streak off to the NW. When this happens you are removing air basically at this level. When you remove air at this level, air from below comes up to replace it. It can't really come from above since the tropopause is right there. This is the right entrance region of the jet and also where the most fun can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Ah, I remember reading an article, I think by New York Metro weather, regarding how an elaborately well placed system of about 3 dual jet couplets aided in Sandy maintaining much of her ferocity in the transition from tropical to extra tropical. I remember that concept now. Thanks. There are multiple circulations associated with jet streaks. This is a decent graphic showing how it comes together. As you know divergence aloft leads to lift in the column and convergence/cyclogenesis at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Caveat being that southern stream screamers usually bump nw. Slow moving ones do, screamers not so much. I'd take a 75 mile bump NW though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I dread the Miller A. Fringe city and cirrus is many the outcome for folks in NW Mass/VT. But if we can continue to move this west, it could further complicate travel. Keep pesky in-laws at bay. That's odd..because Miller A's give your area your biggest snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 And Scoot just showed you a good example of that entrance region ageostrophic direct circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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