powderfreak Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The spaghetti plots show the OP is definitely one of the most amped of any member. It looks like only 2 or 3 out of the 51 are comparable. There are a couple really jacked up, over land in New England or cut-off over NYC time frame, but also members that have no storm at all. Benchmark seems like it makes sense for the mean of that run. The stronger the storm, the further west it is on the ensembles. The lower pressure systems are closer in, weaker solutions east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Euro ensembles are definitely onboard with some sort of event...though unsurprisingly they are not nearly as amped as the OP...they take the system perhaps just a hair outside the benchmark. No snow on the picnic tables. The GFS is sort of the compromise between the Euro and Canadian at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The spaghetti plots show the OP is definitely one of the most amped of any member. It looks like only 2 or 3 out of the 51 are comparable. I still don't get ensembles. I would think the way ensembles work is by slightly modifying different parameters so the outcomes would be slightly different. Then it would produce what would look like a spaghetti outcome. Then it would seem to make sense that you take all the outcomes and averaged them to get the operational outcome which would be a down the middle solution.....but it doesn't seem to work like that. Kind of frustrating for a non Met like me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I still don't get ensembles. I would think the way ensembles work is by slightly modifying different parameters so the outcomes would be slightly different. Then it would produce what would look like a spaghetti outcome. Then it would seem to make sense that you take all the outcomes and averaged them to get the operational outcome which would be a down the middle solution.....but it doesn't seem to work like that. Kind of frustrating for a non Met like me! The operational run is basically just another ensemble member. The other members are generated by tweaking the initial conditions or parametrizations, which can lead to large differences when you get beyond a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I knew Haby would have something on this. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/charts/300/ Thanks--helpful! 36.3/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The operational run is basically just another ensemble member. The other members are generated by tweaking the initial conditions or parametrizations, which can lead to large differences when you get beyond a few days.spread is not as widespread as usual it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 No snow on the picnic tables. The GFS is sort of the compromise between the Euro and Canadian at this point. Hey now, leave the tables out of this Although I know 99% of you are hoping the tables remain snow free and cirrus blanketed, lol. I can't complain with over 10" so far to date at home and going on a week of snow cover now. Climo would suggest we get our usual 2-5" NW edge snowfall in these storms, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The operational run is basically just another ensemble member. The other members are generated by tweaking the initial conditions or parametrizations, which can lead to large differences when you get beyond a few days. Thanks OceanSt. Not to get this thread off topic but if one did a study of all the ensemble members, then did a mean outcome, wouldn't that beat the outcome of just one member, the operational? Kind of what the NHC does on a storm track, average all the models? I guess what I'm asking has been done and the operational member beats the averages of the 50 or so others. Anyhow I will not muck up this TG thread with any more questions. Looking forward to the 18Z GFS to see if it trends west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Thanks OceanSt. Not to get this thread off topic but if one did a study of all the ensemble members, then did a mean outcome, wouldn't that beat the outcome of just one member, the operational? Kind of what the NHC does on a storm track, average all the models? I guess what I'm asking has been done and the operational member beats the averages of the 50 or so others. Anyhow I will not muck up this TG thread with any more questions. Looking forward to the 18Z GFS to see if it trends west. In the medium and long range, yes, the ens have better verification scores than a deterministic op run. However, the ens are run at a lower resolution and at some point (inside about 2-3 days) the op has better verification scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Methinks this is a little too precise of an HWO at this timeframe with respect to the timing/track. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACOMBINATION OF IMPACTS INCLUDING WINTRY PRECIPITATION...HEAVYRAIN...AND STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM THE HEIGHT OFWHICH WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY WHILE TRACKING NORTH-EAST IN THE VICINITY OF NANTUCKET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Thanks OceanSt. Not to get this thread off topic but if one did a study of all the ensemble members, then did a mean outcome, wouldn't that beat the outcome of just one member, the operational? Kind of what the NHC does on a storm track, average all the models? I guess what I'm asking has been done and the operational member beats the averages of the 50 or so others. Anyhow I will not muck up this TG thread with any more questions. Looking forward to the 18Z GFS to see if it trends west. Hopefully it'll just keep the storm threat on the table at day 5...then me and you and MPM can worry about track later lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Thanks OceanSt. Not to get this thread off topic but if one did a study of all the ensemble members, then did a mean outcome, wouldn't that beat the outcome of just one member, the operational? Kind of what the NHC does on a storm track, average all the models? I guess what I'm asking has been done and the operational member beats the averages of the 50 or so others. Anyhow I will not muck up this TG thread with any more questions. Looking forward to the 18Z GFS to see if it trends west. Generally this is how the long term forecasts are done at HPC for instance. Days 3-7 is basically blended GEFS and Euro ensembles in some weight or another. Short term we tend to rely on higher res model guidance, but still blended to maximize their utility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Will and other mets, do you think the ECM is correct with its handling of the northern stream energy and bringing that PV-like feature so much further south? The GFS holds the energy back a little more, keeping it more towards James Bay while the ECM brings it down into the CONUS and phases it into the storm. Here is a map from the 12z GFS with the feature labeled for reference...this is going to be key to how far northwest the storm comes, how much cold air is injected (since it originates from the N Pole), and how strong the system becomes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I would think the GFS holds serve or shifts slightly west. we will soon find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I would think the GFS holds serve or shifts slightly west. we will soon find out. Out to 81 hours the 18z GFS is a bit further south with the northern energy (PV feature) and looks like it might be trending towards the Euro. We'll see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 PGFS doesn't buy it, good early season test for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Gfs is west of 12z lets keep shifting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Gfs is west of 12z lets keep shifting Looks like its near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Keep those ticks west coming. Great to see the trends today...18z is pretty perfect for most posters on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Keep those ticks west coming. Great to see the trends today...18z is pretty perfect for most posters on here. tic tic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 This is happening folks. Only question is position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 tic tic Yea, I'd love to see that time run out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I better be on the road nlt 10am to avoid driving issues. Would get me to Princeton 4-5 even with traffic. Should be a fun night potentially Wednesday. In '71 I had to work all day and as such did not leave Boston for the NYC area until 6pm. Not fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Out to 81 hours the 18z GFS is a bit further south with the northern energy (PV feature) and looks like it might be trending towards the Euro. We'll see though. To answer your earlier question, the euro may be closer to correct, but it's tendency to bomb and curl back lows may be in play too. Someone said the new GFS is still a fish storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 PGFS is still OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I wonder of the para is any good? Wasn't it supposed to be out by now? Anyone know the verification scores vs the old gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 To answer your earlier question, the euro may be closer to correct, but it's tendency to bomb and curl back lows may be in play too. Someone said the new GFS is still a fish storm? I'm pretty confident that this will end up a solid snow n and west of Boston, heaviest probably from GC to the northern ORH hills to Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 OT but night and day para vs regular 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I'm pretty confident that this will end up a solid snow n and west of Boston, heaviest probably from GC to the northern ORH hills to Dendrite. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Not too far west please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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