40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Literally the only storm that comes to mind when I think widespread IP. Yea, me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 There's been several siggy ice storms in late Nov in new England if the High is strong and cold enough to north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 St. Patty's Day 2007 also had widespread sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 A miller A type ice or Sleet event in November? I feel like it's rain or snow with this one. Maybe a small transition zone. Just curious as to why...just because its November or is it something about the setup that you would think wouldn't yield IP/ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Just curious as to why...just because its November or is it something about the setup that you would think wouldn't yield IP/ZR? Well I just feel the setup usually lends to more rain and snow and a small transition zone. I'm not saying you can't get mix, but I just feel like the mix zone would be narrow in this case. You are also advecting cold in and don't have an antecedent cold airmass either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 St. Patty's Day 2007 also had widespread sleet. Ooph, that explains it. I did a 360 on 95 that day and got a ride back to RI in a tow truck. Definitely had a significant amount of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 St. Patty's Day 2007 also had widespread sleet. Not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 anyone have general time frame yet I've had a couple people ask me and I thought it looked like Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 that would be for the area around Springfield Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Not here. My memory of that storm was 8 inches of snow to light rain to over. Best storm of a very anemic season snow wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Agree with all you all said lol . Should be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Lets err with caution, of course. I remember the Thanksgiving teaser that was modeled last year and look how that turned out. While I'm not saying "Cutter" or "OTS", I'm just saying that a lot of variables will have to go right for this to happen as modeled. A Black Friday powder day wouldn't suck though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 anyone have general time frame yet I've had a couple people ask me and I thought it looked like Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning. Euro has late afternoon Wednesday through very early Thanksgiving-but its a little early, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 St. Patty's Day 2007 also had widespread sleet.2 memorable Thanksgivings football games played in adverse weather in Southern Worc County1985 cold cold rain over to sleet/snow 1989 5-7 inches of snow postponed the game to the following Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 My memory of that storm was 8 inches of snow to light rain to over. Best storm of a very anemic season snow wise.11" ending as paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 2 or 3 plow operators count on me to give them forecasts. Lots of company coming up from Boston too. I have not said a word to anyone yet, was thinking this was mostly a OTS event for Central NH. Going to wait till the 18Z before I even give the first heads up. I have been burnt before but it is starting to look like a real event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 My memory of that storm was 8 inches of snow to light rain to over. Best storm of a very anemic season snow wise. My memory of that storm and Valentines Day are very favorable, lol. Both were very significant events up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Snow maps are showing a significant event for anyone off the cape. I don't think they are right at all. If that euro depiction panned out, it would be tough for those areas to get any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 If this thing did come up the coast in a Wednesday midday to Thur noon timeframe what a huge impact. Even if its rain on the 95 corridor. Screws up all the parades and TG AM stuff in NYC too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The '71 storm was a more of a miller B (sort of a hybrid Miller B )...quite a different evolution to this one...but yeah, it was a big hit for interior SNE back through E NY State where they jackpotted with a deformation band. ALmost had similar looking jackpot to the Christmas 2002 storm: LOL at the jackpot on Pete. I think the main takeaway now that the EC continues very (too?) amped and two consecutive GFS runs that have ticked west is that it appears something is more likely to take place. It's also clear that it's way to early to get sucked into any details on p-type etc. as strength and track are going to shift a lot since we're still more than 4 days away. The great news for me though is having something to do during my time off this week other than chores around the house. Relative torch today. 36.8/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 Euro ensembles are definitely onboard with some sort of event...though unsurprisingly they are not nearly as amped as the OP...they take the system perhaps just a hair outside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 2 or 3 plow operators count on me to give them forecasts. Lots of company coming up from Boston too. I have not said a word to anyone yet, was thinking this was mostly a OTS event for Central NH. Going to wait till the 18Z before I even give the first heads up. I have been burnt before but it is starting to look like a real event. 2 or 3 of my family members count on me to give them forecasts. I never fail to fail them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Euro ensembles are definitely onboard with some sort of event...though unsurprisingly they are not nearly as amped as the OP...they take the system perhaps just a hair outside the benchmark.Are they a bit warmer than tepid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Euro ensembles are definitely onboard with some sort of event...though unsurprisingly they are not nearly as amped as the OP...they take the system perhaps just a hair outside the benchmark. Are you able to see ensemble members or just the mean? If the former, is there a bit of spread on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Euro ensembles are definitely onboard with some sort of event...though unsurprisingly they are not nearly as amped as the OP...they take the system perhaps just a hair outside the benchmark. That is probably more favorable for all here in terms of a snowy outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 Are you able to see ensemble members or just the mean? If the former, is there a bit of spread on this? The spaghetti plots show the OP is definitely one of the most amped of any member. It looks like only 2 or 3 out of the 51 are comparable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 If this thing did come up the coast in a Wednesday midday to Thur noon timeframe what a huge impact. Even if its rain on the 95 corridor. Screws up all the parades and TG AM stuff in NYC too. I think they'll snow hard...as much as I would love the 12z ECMWF, I think you'd have to hedge east with the spread in models. Could easily become a weak or lighter 1-3" event for southeastern areas like the GGEM. On the flip side though, the ECMWF has led the way the past couple events with the NW tracks when the others are way SE, but they were different types of events. Just the last event the Euro was ripping the system well NW, while the GFS/NAM/GGEM were advertising snow here and in CNE....the mix line ended up getting to BUF-ART right before their epic lake effect snow. That storm went NW and never looked back, but again a different type of system. The key will be how sharply negative the trough goes, as if it gets a perfect phase, it may not be done going west. With no true blocking downstream, that thing could just haul straight north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 Snow maps are showing a significant event for anyone off the cape. I don't think they are right at all. If that euro depiction panned out, it would be tough for those areas to get any snow. There's a lot of snow before any changeover in a good chunk of SNE on the OP run...but again, these details mean very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 2 or 3 of my family members count on me to give them forecasts. I never fail to fail them. Just too early to say anything. Like the posts above just said the Euro Ensembles are further SE better for you guys down there. I start honking and the plow operators start making changes to their holiday plans and we get shafted I loose my credibility. Have to wait but one way or another New England will have an event of some kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 ens look sweet, lets do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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