40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 You are supposed to be one of our realist vs idealist anchors. lol We can't let it be too disheartening when it's 3.5 days out in November and models are offering possibilities of snow. The lack of a solid cold air mass is the first prelude to sorrow. The possibility of a strung out, too far E mess is clearly another. Disheartening was too strong of a word. Perhaps boring is a more apt term.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think everyone is still uneasy after the 2-3 disasters to end last winter inside 4 days, at least this time we know there is no way DCA wins LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Didn't you say earlier you wanted this to tick east? This storm is like 96 hours out. You need to shake off the rust, man. Training camp ended too early.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Didn't you say earlier you wanted this to tick east? This storm is like 96 hours out. You need to shake off the rust, man. Man, I was going to delete that, but I got gang-banged before I could lol You've been waiting to pounce on me since the "tepid" lashing that you took Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Man, I was going to delete that, but I got gang-banged before I could lol You've been waiting to pounce on me since the "tepid" lashing that you took Lol. In all seriousness though its still a D4 storm, so these 50-75 mile wiggles are no real cause for concern. What you want to look for is an established trend among the same models...or a set of models. We haven't really seen that yet. I'm pretty sure the OP Euro will tick east, but that's because it really has nowhere else to go given the 12z solution. We'll see what 12z does tomorrow...if all or most of the models go east again at 12z and turn this into a scraper, then it would be more legit to worry about a miss. I mean, nobody should be shocked if it misses even now gien the information we have...but a hit would have to be considered more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GEFS are a tad tepid. I had to say that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 PD II had a classic example of what an entrance region can do. Many times, it's those right entrance regions that help develop the LLJ and overrunning. Areas of strong confluence to the north are also often a great source of a right-entrance region, since confluent flow often greatly speeds up mid and upper level westerlies just north of us. That's why a lot of our classics have the strong cutoffs but then quickly heavy precipitation -- the confluence can suppress the heavy precipitation, but also generates a lot of lift where it actually is precipitating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro looks icy for some of the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro looks icy for some of the interior Look extremely similar to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 staying up for the euro,give us play by play dryslot. nyc forum sys looks juicy and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Look extremely similar to the 12z run. Almost identical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If I remember right, wasn't the 12z a very nice hit for SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 staying up for the euro,give us play by play dryslot. nyc forum sys looks juicy and west Low tracks over the cape into DE Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Almost identical I'm fairly pleased...I'm still worried more about an escape east. I was actually surprised it managed to stay on course this run because the western ridge was flatter at 72-84 hours leading into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 low just east of cc? good snows for c/nne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 ...This really makes me wonder what the hell is wrong with the Parallel GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 If I remember right, wasn't the 12z a very nice hit for SNE? It was ok...it flipped to rain for a good chunk but a pretty solid hit on the front end. Looked like a sleet/ice zone in the interior hills too. But again, these details mean very little right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm fairly pleased...I'm still worried more about an escape east. I was actually surprised it managed to stay on course this run because the western ridge was flatter at 72-84 hours leading into it. Looks like it phased the northern vort in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm fairly pleased...I'm still worried more about an escape east. I was actually surprised it managed to stay on course this run because the western ridge was flatter at 72-84 hours leading into it. We certainly have some wiggle room east so that is encouraging as well which would help some of the coastal dwellers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 ...This really makes me wonder what the hell is wrong with the Parallel GFS. It's still the GFS that's what's wrong. Just higher resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Technically with a higher resolution it should be better but it's out to lunch right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's still the GFS that's what's wrong. Just higher resolution. Garbage in Garbage out as they say....oh mama come to papa....Euro PBP made me gave an accident..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Technically with a higher resolution it should be better but it's out to lunch right now Not when the initializer ion is still garbage.....I heard that before.....peace out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Based off wxbell snowmaps, 6-12+ inches from DC to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Faster vs 12Z. Wednesday driving could be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The weatherbell snow map is a weenies dream lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Based off wxbell snowmaps, 6-12+ inches from DC to Boston. Lol....sv is nothing like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Nice thump of snow on the front end before it flips to rain... Euro seems pretty locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Lol....sv is nothing like that... I was just looking at that Jerry coastal weenies deflated. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I was just looking at that Jerry coastal weenies deflated. Lol Although if you look closely it's pretty ominous with the 925 temps particularly just inland from Boston at the storms height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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