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Central PA & Fringes - Fall 2014

Eskimo Joe

By Eskimo Joe,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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Voyager

Voyager

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Last year it snowed on the day we went to see Trans-Siberian Orchestra in Hershey. It was the first time in 10 years it snowed on the day of the concert. The winter that followed was, well...you know. We are once again going to see them this Saturday, 11/15. at Hershey. If it happens to snow again, then the winter will once again be brutally cold...lol

 

Of course I'm joking, but.... :unsure:

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canderson

canderson

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Last winter I took a bad fall (two actually, I fell getting back up after the initial fall) when shoveling one morning - hit an icey spot I guess. I could barely move for a week and a half and was extremely close to hitting my head on the concrete curb corner

I'm honestly terrified now of walking around and at lunch downtown on untreated sidewalks and the road plow slush. Anyone used microspikes or Yaktrax or anything with success when walking on a mixture of ice and clean pavement surfaces? Yaktrax review pews aren't nearly as high as microspkies'.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Long range on the GFS has been looking very cold... can't be too much longer before we'll have our first storm to track  :snowing:

 

It might be as soon as this coming weekend as the Euro and the GFS have been hinting at a wave developing, the Euro more-so than the GFS. Either way it has been consistently advertised as being rather moisture starved and would probably be a light precip event. However, given the cold air available this could be our first trackable light snowfall of the season (T-2" type deal) for at least the higher west and central PA regions.

 

Today's 12z Euro at the end of it's range was in the process of delivering what could be best described as..quite an event.. for PA with a classic Gulf coast to TN Valley low with reflection to the coast. The operational Euro ran out of hours but it was heading for a big PA hit. Obviously, the usual "It's lol-range" disclaimers apply here.. but it should be recognized that the potential for a more widespread early season winter event is going to be fairly high given this early cold pattern we are set to descend into starting later this week. If we end up with a more active storm track with a solid moisture source, then the combination of that and the still warm Gulf and warmer than usual Atlantic (esp off the northeast coast) could help translate into the type of widespread event seen today on the Euro.

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CarlislePaWx

CarlislePaWx

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Well...hello to all my CPA wx friends.  Hope you all enjoyed one of the most comfortable summers in recent memory.  I don't know if there were any posts about this but this summer at my house recorded the lowest maximum temperature for the entire season at a "cool" 92 degrees!  I tried to see if I could remember a summer with a lower high seasonal temp but I came up blank.  Maybe djr could investigate this factoid for us.  I'd like to know who else around here maybe had an even lower highest high temp.

 

I actually started checking in here about 2 weeks ago to see if any posts were up about the upcoming early winter wx pattern.  I'm kind of surprised that not until today with Mag's comments has there been any detailed opinions.  I'm back to bringing up the GFS each day and running through the four runs with anticipation.  Thanks Mag for your analysis.

 

At the moment I have mixed emotions about the coming cold.  It's easy to start to get excited about the first snowfall potential.  However, I have really been enjoying this fall season.  Today was heavenly compared to the chill over the weekend.  I guess tomorrow is likely to be our last 60+ day for the year and perhaps until next Feb or Mar?  I would prefer a slower transition into winter than what appears to be on the horizon beginning Thursday.  But I guess I'll have to take what I get.

 

Does anyone else besides me receive Larry Cosgrove's weekly WxAmerica e-newsletter?  It comes out every Saturday evening.  He goes through his take on the coming short, mid, and long term (10-14 days) range timeframes.  He's been saying for quite a few weeks that the incredible warmth in the eastern Pacific is creating a huge moisture fetch all the way up to Alaska with a resulting -EPO / +PNA blocking scenario looking more and more likely to be the constant theme of this upcoming winter season.  Of course, there's also the -AO / -NAO combo in there also.  In fact, in his most recent letter he talked about how the models are forecasting the quadruple blocking signal to develop in the near future and to drive much of this upcoming winter weather for us here in the east.  He said that he hasn't seen a serious quad block on the charts since the late 1970's where the winters of '76-'77 > '78-'79 frequently had this set up.

 

So, I look forward to reconnecting with everyone again over the next several weeks and to become a more regular poster around here.  Too bad we appear to have lost Zak for good since his move to VA.  I'm going to miss his energetic posts.  I wonder who might step in to take his place here??

 

Talk soon...

 

Stephen

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

Glad to see some members back posting. Joe has been holding the fort down.

Mag you talking T-2 next Monday?

Looks like next week is going to be Carhart weather with next Tue - Wed the highs is suppose to be 33.

 

I'll be much more available for posting now that my extremely hectic summer/fall I've had between work and doing online grad classes is over.

 

Passage of a weak shortwave and secondary front Thursday night will usher in the first widespread accumulating LES event for the NW PA snow belt and Laurels Friday into Saturday as a pretty traditional NW flow for such things develops for a time. This might be preceded by some light precip with the shortwave developing as it hits the coast. Models have been consistently showing this, but moisture has looked very limited. As for the Lake effect.. headline worthy LES will reside up in the NW, with several inches likely. Not sure about the Laurels yet, although I would imagine most of the usual suspects there could manage a couple inches.  Can't rule out some coatings of snow to perhaps an isolated inch just off the Allegheny Plateau in the AOO-UNV realm either. 

 

Next Monday has been looking more and more interesting as the week has gone on. The Euro and GFS have been zeroing in on that timeframe with a more widespread and heavier precip event. I say heavier in reference to what was it was looking like a couple days ago, as it still seems like something that falls into the light-moderate category QPF wise. However, this looks to me like the first widespread snowfall of the early season for a portion of the Ohio Valley and interior Northeast, with the usual questions as to positioning and track of the low. The GFS and European are in fairly good agreement tonight showing up to a few inches of snow in the west and central parts of PA (roughly from a JST-AOO-UNV-IPT line and points north and west). The southeastern parts of central PA (MDT, LNS, etc) look a bit too warm currently, though a mix of rain/snow is possible. Tonight's Euro run was a good bit colder than the previous 12z run, which generally had a rain event for everyone and a trough axis a bit further west. 

 

Behind this potential event will usher in what looks to be an even more significant cold shot than the initial one this weekend, with 850 temps bottoming out near -15ºC (with near -18ºC in the Laurels and west) at the height of it. There could be a day or two in the middle of next week that doesn't get out of the 20s (or teens in the laurels). The lakes are likely going to light up again as well, but the fetch looks a bit too westerly attm to largely affect the PA snow belt outside of orographic action. 

 

Regardless of if we get that Monday event or not, it's shaping up to be quite the early dose of winter weather the next week or so. 

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pawatch

pawatch

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Posted

HIGH RES MODELS SHOW A GOOD AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG I-90 AND EAST ALONG THE NY BORDER LATER THIS

MORNING AND PUSH IT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE

AFTERNOON. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE

NORTH BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH 2-4 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN

WARREN COUNTY. HAVE ISSUED AN LES ADVY FOR WARREN AND MCKEAN COS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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2001kx

2001kx

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I'll be much more available for posting now that my extremely hectic summer/fall I've had between work and doing online grad classes is over.

 

Passage of a weak shortwave and secondary front Thursday night will usher in the first widespread accumulating LES event for the NW PA snow belt and Laurels Friday into Saturday as a pretty traditional NW flow for such things develops for a time. This might be preceded by some light precip with the shortwave developing as it hits the coast. Models have been consistently showing this, but moisture has looked very limited. As for the Lake effect.. headline worthy LES will reside up in the NW, with several inches likely. Not sure about the Laurels yet, although I would imagine most of the usual suspects there could manage a couple inches.  Can't rule out some coatings of snow to perhaps an isolated inch just off the Allegheny Plateau in the AOO-UNV realm either. 

 

Next Monday has been looking more and more interesting as the week has gone on. The Euro and GFS have been zeroing in on that timeframe with a more widespread and heavier precip event. I say heavier in reference to what was it was looking like a couple days ago, as it still seems like something that falls into the light-moderate category QPF wise. However, this looks to me like the first widespread snowfall of the early season for a portion of the Ohio Valley and interior Northeast, with the usual questions as to positioning and track of the low. The GFS and European are in fairly good agreement tonight showing up to a few inches of snow in the west and central parts of PA (roughly from a JST-AOO-UNV-IPT line and points north and west). The southeastern parts of central PA (MDT, LNS, etc) look a bit too warm currently, though a mix of rain/snow is possible. Tonight's Euro run was a good bit colder than the previous 12z run, which generally had a rain event for everyone and a trough axis a bit further west. 

 

Behind this potential event will usher in what looks to be an even more significant cold shot than the initial one this weekend, with 850 temps bottoming out near -15ºC (with near -18ºC in the Laurels and west) at the height of it. There could be a day or two in the middle of next week that doesn't get out of the 20s (or teens in the laurels). The lakes are likely going to light up again as well, but the fetch looks a bit too westerly attm to largely affect the PA snow belt outside of orographic action. 

 

Regardless of if we get that Monday event or not, it's shaping up to be quite the early dose of winter weather the next week or so. 

 

Thanks MAG

Not bad having something to track in November ;)

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

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Nice post MAG...for those of you in York/Lancaster/Lebanon counties...I would not be surprised if someone reported their first inch of snow between now and the 25th of November.  Although early, the pattern does seem favorable for action.  I really hope this is a sign of a good winter from start to finish and not a front-loaded teaser.

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djr5001

djr5001

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Well...hello to all my CPA wx friends.  Hope you all enjoyed one of the most comfortable summers in recent memory.  I don't know if there were any posts about this but this summer at my house recorded the lowest maximum temperature for the entire season at a "cool" 92 degrees!  I tried to see if I could remember a summer with a lower high seasonal temp but I came up blank.  Maybe djr could investigate this factoid for us.  I'd like to know who else around here maybe had an even lower highest high temp.

 

I actually started checking in here about 2 weeks ago to see if any posts were up about the upcoming early winter wx pattern.  I'm kind of surprised that not until today with Mag's comments has there been any detailed opinions.  I'm back to bringing up the GFS each day and running through the four runs with anticipation.  Thanks Mag for your analysis.

 

At the moment I have mixed emotions about the coming cold.  It's easy to start to get excited about the first snowfall potential.  However, I have really been enjoying this fall season.  Today was heavenly compared to the chill over the weekend.  I guess tomorrow is likely to be our last 60+ day for the year and perhaps until next Feb or Mar?  I would prefer a slower transition into winter than what appears to be on the horizon beginning Thursday.  But I guess I'll have to take what I get.

 

Does anyone else besides me receive Larry Cosgrove's weekly WxAmerica e-newsletter?  It comes out every Saturday evening.  He goes through his take on the coming short, mid, and long term (10-14 days) range timeframes.  He's been saying for quite a few weeks that the incredible warmth in the eastern Pacific is creating a huge moisture fetch all the way up to Alaska with a resulting -EPO / +PNA blocking scenario looking more and more likely to be the constant theme of this upcoming winter season.  Of course, there's also the -AO / -NAO combo in there also.  In fact, in his most recent letter he talked about how the models are forecasting the quadruple blocking signal to develop in the near future and to drive much of this upcoming winter weather for us here in the east.  He said that he hasn't seen a serious quad block on the charts since the late 1970's where the winters of '76-'77 > '78-'79 frequently had this set up.

 

So, I look forward to reconnecting with everyone again over the next several weeks and to become a more regular poster around here.  Too bad we appear to have lost Zak for good since his move to VA.  I'm going to miss his energetic posts.  I wonder who might step in to take his place here??

 

Talk soon...

 

Stephen

 

I would have to look into it as I did not get to work on any of the summer month data yet (very close to being done with November for some maybe interesting Harrisburg snow/temp stats) but first year that came to mind was 2009.  Doing a quick look through May-September 2009 it appears as if there were only 5 days of 90 or greater at KMDT with highest being 92.  On average I believe we see closer to 20 days a year with daily maximums at 90 or greater.  Quick look has summer 2014 with 9 and 94 as max.

 

I wouldnt be surprised if there are light flurries somewhere around Harrisburg/York/Lancaster region tonight (with a random accumulation report coming from Red Lion...)

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

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Posted

I posted a little bit here and there last winter along with the Mid Atlantic forum. Over the summer, I officially moved to Millersville for good and I'll be here to stay. Nice to see everyone back in the swing and even earlier this year. I have a hunch this winter will have plenty of fun and games and sleepless nights. Feels good to be back  :)

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