canderson Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Well, according to TWC, Penn State students will be blowing away Tuesday. Nice knowing you all! Maybe the B1G officiating crew will still be in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Next weekend is starting to look like it will feature a warning shot that the winter season is not too far off. 0z models and this mornings GFS so far show a potent shortwave and a negatively tilted trough that could at the least bring the first flakes of the season into the central part of the state (We'll call them the second flakes of the season for the Laurels and NW). See some potential for a coastal development but given the progressive look, it would be too late for us to get into. Regardless, it's a quick but potent looking cold shot as it stands right now. New GFS particularly impressive, as it appears to phase late and winds up a pretty sizable storm for New England... in the process driving 850 temps of less than -10ºC into a good portion of northern and western PA and -5 to -10 for the rest of the commonwealth. That would definitely be sufficient to light up the lakes and provide accumulating snowfall in the Laurels/NW and snow showers/flurries deep into south central PA if that solution were to come to fruition. As usual, we'll have to see how things evolve this week. Daylight savings time couldn't come soon enough next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 26, 2014 Author Share Posted October 26, 2014 Good post, MAG...might be the first snow for the Laurels if everything pans out correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Maybe the B1G officiating crew will still be in town. They just charged Franklin and Meyer with another phantom time out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Maybe the B1G officiating crew will still be in town. After further review, TWC's forecast stands. First down Buckeyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 http://www.nasa.gov/content/how-to-view-the-antares-launch-oct-27/ for those interested in this sort of thing... should be visible to most of us though further south and east will see it higher from horizon than north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Of course my thermometer crapped out overnight, but there was the first widespread frost of the season around Bellefonte this morning. Closest PWS on Wunderground bottomed out at 29°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Maybe the B1G officiating crew will still be in town. Well, much like 175 mph winds, the B1G refs blow hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 There are some interesting temperature variations this morning around the area. Currently 40° down in Bellefonte, with some upper 30s showing up in the sheltered valleys of south central PA. Meanwhile, Blue Knob is at 66° and Brush Mountain near Altoona is reporting 67°. There should be some ~40° swings today for the valleys, as I wouldn't be surprised by a few 80° readings SW of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 There are some interesting temperature variations this morning around the area. Currently 40° down in Bellefonte, with some upper 30s showing up in the sheltered valleys of south central PA. Meanwhile, Blue Knob is at 66° and Brush Mountain near Altoona is reporting 67°. There should be some ~40° swings today for the valleys, as I wouldn't be surprised by a few 80° readings SW of here. The low at the Walker station was 51F. I think we get at least to the mid 70s here. The decreased foliage may help out as well, kind of like what happens during warm sector days in April, before significant leaf coverage is present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 There are some interesting temperature variations this morning around the area. Currently 40° down in Bellefonte, with some upper 30s showing up in the sheltered valleys of south central PA. Meanwhile, Blue Knob is at 66° and Brush Mountain near Altoona is reporting 67°. There should be some ~40° swings today for the valleys, as I wouldn't be surprised by a few 80° readings SW of here. I love the temperature gradients with fronts this time of year. Current temperature obs across the state really show that there is warm air aloft just ahead of the warm air at the surface. The warmer air at the surface is having a little trouble pushing through the mountains at the present time (wont take too long) but there are some higher elevation sites like the ones you mentioned already into the 60s while some more in valley sites still in 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 77 today after a low of 39 this morning in my backyard. Still 62 here and I was just outside listening to the last sounds of summer...a few crickets chirping in some of the trees that still have leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Hey guys. Just checking in to see how everyone is. Since I only post on the MA page now from time to time, to get my forecast check out my new site. http://www.hwpcwx.com Hope all is well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The 12z gfs is interesting, but I think surface temps are a large issue. If surface temps are ok tyough, it gives the western half of the state a nice hit, and a pretty big hit south of the turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The 12z gfs is interesting, but I think surface temps are a large issue. If surface temps are ok tyough, it gives the western half of the state a nice hit, and a pretty big hit south of the turnpike. soundings around Pittsburgh for 12z GFS run are not favorable for snow... above freezing just below 850mb layer whole way to surface during hours this run produces best precip. I dont think you can rule out flurries at some point but high elevations maybe WV are likely best chance for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 also, crazy that today marks 3 year anniversary of the October snow storm here and 2 years for Sandy already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 I wouldn't be surprised if the hilltops in the Laurels got a quick dusting of snow from this system. We are basically in November and the storm, as it's being modeled now, isn't a terrible track for a few wet snowflakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 also, crazy that today marks 3 year anniversary of the October snow storm here and 2 years for Sandy already!Cantore was two blocks from my house that day reporting live when thunder hit. He freaked out, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 So, it's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Yeah I was freezing today. Body tajes time to adjust. In three months 48 will feel warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 First snow of the season has left the top of the mountain with about 1/2" here in Gaines Tioga county. Great to see it again! Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Getting some graupel this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Getting some graupel this morning. Looked like some small rimed crystals here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Driving back into town this morning I saw a nice dusting on top of the ridge east of town, on 322. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Still no freeze (or frost) here this season. Should be a pleasant next few days though with temperatures in the 50s and perhaps up to 60 Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 My kingdom for some active weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 Eris Horst's thoughts on November: * Wild Temperature Swings Next 10 Days * 10:30am Tuesday, November 4: October concluded 2.2 degrees above average making for the warmest month of 2014 compared with average. Of course, 2014 has been a remarkably cool year in our region with five of the ten months coming in below or much below average, while October was the first to meet a statistically significant "above average" classification. Year-to-date, 2014 is running a little over 2 degrees below average--that's a huge annual anomaly which, if it holds, would make 2014 the 3rd coolest year on record in Lancaster. Of course, a mild November and/or December would soften this anomaly a bit--but I wouldn't bet on in, as I see ample Arctic air gathering to our north... Looking ahead, November is shaping up to take us on a wild ride with a few sharp warm and cold spells. November 1st and 2nd kicked things off with gusty winds and temps about 5 degrees below normal. Today (November 4th), however, is a remarkably nice/warm election day with high temps climbing to near 70 degrees (10 degrees above average). Clouds will increase Wednesday and a rain day is likely Thursday with temps remaining a few degrees above average (highs in the low 60s and lows in the 40s). Heading into the weekend I see two minor Canadian blasts arriving on Friday and Sunday night into Monday. A few showers are possible Sunday, otherwise it will be a breezy, cool and mainly dry period (Friday through Monday) with highs only in the low 50s (a few degrees below average). Tuesday may then bring a one day warm up with highs returning to the upper 50s or low 60s. Though it's always a gamble forecasting more than a week into the future, I do see signs of a possible Arctic outbreak--the first of the season--pushing into the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast between November 12 - 14th. A large vortex of winter-like air may depart from the Polar region and pivot down across Ontario and Quebec next week--if so, this would usher the coldest air of the season into the Commonwealth the second half of next week. The first measurable lake effect snows would fall in the mountains of PA and a flurry might even make it into the Susquehanna Valley late next Wednesday night or Thursday. High temperatures late next week could hold in the upper 30s to mid 40s, depending on the depth of the Arctic plunge. Again, I could be all wrong about this....but the pattern 7 to 10 days from now certainly favors cold over warm. Still, there's no sign of significant high latitude blocking that would be needed to lock in a cold pattern for an extended stay. Therefore, it's my bet that another cold-warm-cold cycle is likely late in the month. With a relatively active jet stream pattern (Rossby wave breaks occurring near the East coast every 7 days or so), I can't rule out a little early season snow in our area (mostly likely at the higher elevation spots) sometime between November 12th - 30th. November temperatures, in aggregate, will likely finish up near average to a couple degrees below average. --Hörst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Saw some decent light snow at times here between around 11:30 and 12:30 from the lake-effect/upslope bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Route 22 west of Altoona (Gallitzen interchange) up to it's usual tricks today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 It is really cold out tonight with the wind. Shivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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