Central PA & Fringes - Fall 2014

[Eskimo Joe]

Light returns showing up over western Adams County, eastern Franklin County and a good portion of Cumberland County.  Would not be surprised if someone in Gettysburg or our Cashtown_COOP member gets a quick dusting.  

[Atomixwx]

I consider it cold when I experience what I call the "Lewis Black".

 

"I knew it was way too cold this winter because I have not had one thought. I have NOT been able to complete a sentence in my own head. I find myself wondering, going; You know, I should really - $#^& IT'S COLD!"

 

That was yesterday.

[djr5001]

Can this "parallel" GFS be trusted any or is it as trash-worthy as its big brother?

I know they found a few bugs that will push back when it becomes operational, but from what I have seen it has scored pretty well so far that I think it could be considered useful.  Current GFS has actually surprisingly scored quite well this week. 

[Eskimo Joe]

KRYT airport just reported a visibility drop to 7 miles.

 

 

 

000
SAXX60 KWBC 141300 RRF
MTRRYT
METAR KRYT 141253Z AUTO VRB04KT 7SM -SN BKN041 OVC048 A3012 RMK AO2
SNB45 SLPNO P0000 $

[Superstorm]

Not bad for Lancaster County

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[Eskimo Joe]

No, not at all...a solid little November surprise.  I believe the dry air ahead of the precipitation is what helped.  Despite having temperatures near 40 degrees, we were able to wet bulb down to near freezing within two hours of the precip starting.

[sauss06]

Snowing at Millersville. First snow of the season is here

I didn't realize you were still at the Ville. So we'll have you again this year

[Wmsptwx]

Nice to have Fozz back, now we just need Greg and Jamie. I bet that first accumulation looked beautiful down in those parts!!!

[djr5001]

Currently not looking too favorable for southeast PA but Monday looking more and more intersting for southwest to central around State College for at least advisory level snow... I saw this morning that State College is at 261 days without measurable snow which is tied for 6th longest period since late 1800s!

[canderson]

So, are we going to do a seasonal snowfall projection competition?

[Wmsptwx]

Chilly yet beautiful today.

[Vogan]

Not bad for Lancaster County

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In New Holland atm and that 2" has just about disappeared. It sure made the ride to work a pleasure with all the fields covered in white. Had a real feel of winter this morning.

 

The Monday storm bares watching of course but today's GFS runs have trended warmer and wetter for us in the LSV.

[MAG5035]

Had a pretty good look at the new Euro and it looks to be similar to the GFS with having the battle lines setting up near the AOO/UNV/IPT corridor. 850/925/2m temps are pretty much a toss up in the central third of the state for the 78hr mark (when the main precip swings up through. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a small area with a period of sleet or even freezing rain somewhere within the typically vulnerable ridge and valley region, especially with the very cold air possibly trying to press in underneath.. but should be primarily a rain vs snow event with a possible west to east transition to snow toward the end of the event.

 

Gonna be a tough one to pin down. What's at stake for folks that get the best precip and stay all snow looks to be a higher end advisory type (3-5") deal and currently that region seems to be residing more in the western third of PA on the Euro/GFS. 

 

Heres a loop of the Canadian p-type loop, which has the rain/snow line setting a bit more SE.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[Superstorm]

Cold Air Advection...didn't get out of the 30s.

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[canderson]

In New Holland atm and that 2" has just about disappeared. It sure made the ride to work a pleasure with all the fields covered in white. Had a real feel of winter this morning.

 

The Monday storm bares watching of course but today's GFS runs have trended warmer and wetter for us in the LSV.

Yeah I'm thinking a cold rain down this way. It's mid November, can't complain about it yet.

[Wmsptwx]

Feels like basketball season tonight!!

[skiier04]

CTP now forecasting all snow for State College... 18z GFS run looked pretty sweet. over .5" qpf and looked like the 850s stayed below freezing the whole time... of course you can't tell for sure with the 6 hour intervals though.

 

Just excited for an early season storm to track! I'm leaving the country Jan. 22 - March 31 so I'll take all the early season snow I can get 

[Itunis]

CTP now forecasting all snow for State College... 18z GFS run looked pretty sweet. over .5" qpf and looked like the 850s stayed below freezing the whole time... of course you can't tell for sure with the 6 hour intervals though.

 

Just excited for an early season storm to track! I'm leaving the country Jan. 22 - March 31 so I'll take all the early season snow I can get 

I'm excited as well, looking forward to the model watching these next few days. Being on the "edge" in terms of temps/etc. is part of what makes these events fun IMO.

[NortheastPAWx]

I'm excited as well, looking forward to the model watching these next few days. Being on the "edge" in terms of temps/etc. is part of what makes these events fun IMO.

No thank you, I've had enough of the "edge" and being on the wrong side of it!

[Wmsptwx]

Weird flurries going on at the moment...also my HS Alma Mater S. Williamsport won District 4 football title and it was absolutely freezing lol.

[Voyager]

No thank you, I've had enough of the "edge" and being on the wrong side of it!

 

...and no matter which edge is the wrong side. Whether it's too far south and/or east and getting fringed or too far north/west and getting rain. for some reason the I-81 corridor is in the battleground zone either way...

 

On that note, I can see the NAM and GFS, but I don't have access to the Euro. Anyone care to share what it's showing for the Monday event?

[Wmsptwx]

Euro is warm and NAM at 12z was a Rainer. Good preseason tune up for us though.

[Wmsptwx]

GFS actually has a pretty decent rainstorm for EPA. Will def. take the precip.

[Voyager]

It was 23 here last night at 1:00am when we got home from the TSO show, and by 6:30 this morning it was already up to 30.

[Eskimo Joe]

Saw a few snowflakes this morning around 8:00 am when I took the trash out. Raw, cloudy November day...I love it.

[pawatch]

GFS actually has a pretty decent rainstorm for EPA. Will def. take the precip.

We definitely could use some precipitation. Rain or snow will work.

[skiier04]

Not anymore I guess 

 

Have a source for these stats? Looks like nothing more than cold and dry for next 10 days after monday's rainstorm.

 

 

Currently not looking too favorable for southeast PA but Monday looking more and more intersting for southwest to central around State College for at least advisory level snow... I saw this morning that State College is at 261 days without measurable snow which is tied for 6th longest period since late 1800s!

[Wmsptwx]

Yea very cold and dry.

[Eskimo Joe]

All sleet with a few mangled snowflakes in New Salem. Regional observations show three distinct features: /1/ light precipitation overhead, /2/ no real southerly push of wind to scour out low level cold air and /3/ a noteworthy dew point depression across Central PA.  These factors lead me to believe that we can expect a wintry mix for the first 1 - 3 hours south of the turn pike, and maybe through midnight from the I-76 to Rt. 22 corridor.  Since it is after nightfall, a slick spot or two on some bridges and elevated surfaces cannot be ruled out.  

[MAG5035]

Well the northwest trend has not been our friend the last couple days. Knew we were going to have a shot at something widespread in this pattern but the trough axis has ended up just a bit too far west and it looks that most of us will primarily miss out on the first widespread snowfall of the season for the Ohio Valley and interior NE. Fortunately for us it's still only the middle of November, and it seems like getting the November snowstorm has been more difficult in recent years than even an October one. What makes it kinda suck is the ferocious cold coming in the wake of the storm mid-week, which could probably do early-mid January proud. Some rumblings on the models from time to time of maybe a piece of reinforcing energy rounding the trough late week making for a potential light event, but tonight/Monday's storm looks to be the main show for the time being.. and we could use precip in about any form. 

 

Even though I now expect mainly rain, I would watch overnight and first thing in the morning for icy spots with some initial mixing that does crop up (it's actually flurrying here currently for instance). Most likely suspects for that is of course in the advisory areas that CTP has hoisted up but I'd also watch in the AOO-UNV corridor as well. 

 

Beyond the end of this week, it looks like the pattern will relax a bit and we will probably see some more typical November weather as we head towards Thanksgiving. Don't really see any overwhelming signal in any of the teleconnection forecasts either way right now. The -EPO is forecast to neutralize or becoming slightly positive, the very positive PNA is forecast to head more toward neutral. The NAO looks fairly neutral as well (some spread in the forecast) and the AO appears to remain a bit negative. This suggests to me a probable relaxation to a more zonal pattern for Thanksgiving week. If that is indeed the case, I don't expect that the cold air will be too far away. The table seems set with regards to the state of the cryosphere in the northern hemisphere this fall, with a + anomaly in snow cover and modest recovery of sea ice coverage this fall (You'll notice in the sea ice coverage link that ice growth was stunted a bit recently, likely due to former Typhoon/Superstorm Nuri). Overall, I expect plenty of cold will be readily available to be tapped into when the pattern is favorable to bring it down. 

 

 

Currently not looking too favorable for southeast PA but Monday looking more and more intersting for southwest to central around State College for at least advisory level snow... I saw this morning that State College is at 261 days without measurable snow which is tied for 6th longest period since late 1800s!

 

That's a pretty wild stat, I didn't realize it had been that many days for State College. It certainly wasn't due to a lack of cold weather, thats for sure.. practically everything from late February through the month of March last year was buried south of PA.