Atomixwx Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 You know, I usually would be excited about a 40 degree day in November as "getting colder and preparing for the winter season". How did everything change so quickly? A 40 degree day? Heat wave! Also, I saw (in passing) yesterday, DT posted about another possible arctic break at the end of the month. Less than a week after most folks were saying the end of this week would signify a warm spell that could last through mid-December. I'm wondering if this signifies a lot of what we saw last year: Signs of a warm-up close but never quite happening or never lasting more than a brief period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Buffalo situation is just plain crazy!!!! Was watching weather channel for snow coverage in Buffalo. One town had 51" of snow. 5 miles south the snow average was 2"..... just goes to show how drastic the cut off can be. ...ERIE COUNTY... GARDENVILLE 60.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER WEST SENECA 57.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER ELMA 51.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER ORCHARD PARK 48.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 SSW BLASDELL 44.0 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS 2 N LANCASTER 21.0 1040 PM 11/18 SOCIAL MEDIA SLOAN 16.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER NY BUFFALO INTL ARPT 6.2 650 AM 11/19 ASOS CLARENCE 6.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER KENMORE 3.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER TONAWANDA 0.9 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS EAST AMHERST 0.8 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS I would love to know what the trained spotters used to measure the 48"+ amounts... rates have been so heavy you would have to clear off a snow board at least every hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vogan Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 ...ERIE COUNTY... GARDENVILLE 60.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER WEST SENECA 57.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER ELMA 51.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER ORCHARD PARK 48.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 SSW BLASDELL 44.0 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS 2 N LANCASTER 21.0 1040 PM 11/18 SOCIAL MEDIA SLOAN 16.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER NY BUFFALO INTL ARPT 6.2 650 AM 11/19 ASOS CLARENCE 6.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER KENMORE 3.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER TONAWANDA 0.9 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS EAST AMHERST 0.8 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS I would love to know what the trained spotters used to measure the 48"+ amounts... rates have been so heavy you would have to clear off a snow board at least every hour With the amounts and rates and wind that this event produced even the most experienced spotter will be challenged to record accurate measurements. A 6-hour measurement will still see some compaction with an event that produces 4"-5"/hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 FWIW the Susky has ice on her. I'll try to get a photo, but the sun makes it tough to see it through a picture. Never have seen her iced so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Thanks for the climate info, djr! This cold snap even in these parts seems pretty impressive to me. How often have we stayed continuously below freezing for possibly 60 hours in the middle of November? So, my next question to you is: what is Harrisburg's earliest date of a temperature of 19 degrees F or lower? Knowing that would add perspective to today's bone-chilling cold. November 14 1986 had a low of 19 degrees which would be the earliest sub-20 reading at location of record for Harrisburg Yesterday had an official high of 34 and low of 22 at Harrisburg - neither are records. Official low so far today is 20 - also not a record and temp officially not under 20 yet this month even though I had 14 degrees at my house this morning. The temperature of the river likely helps to play a part in keeping some of these "official" November lows a little warmer than what actual surrounding area experiences. As for the consecutive hour below freezing record, that will be tough to determine without hourly obs from earlier years. November 15-16, 1933 was earliest back to back days with highs below 32. Only 8 times in the 126 year record has high temp for the day been 32 degrees or colder on or before November 20th (3 of those 8 had high of 32). There have been 56 times on record that any day in November has had a high of 32 or below (16 of those at 32). So yes, while we just missed the records - we do not usually see a 24+hr stretch of sub freezing temperatures before this point of November and while still rare it is more likely to start occuring near end of month. Record lowest high for today is 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vogan Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Dropped down to a low of 13.8 this morning. This combined with a high of 32 would make this a -20 departure day, the coldest for the month so far. We should be 52/34 for our high/low. Very impressive stuff for November. Last years numbers for temps and precip in November are very similar to what we are seeing this November fwiw. It does seem like the table is being set for an interesting winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 19, 2014 Author Share Posted November 19, 2014 I'm surprised there haven't been more chimney fires and box alarms for malfunctioning furnaces in the recent days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Seeing ice on the east shores of the susky is pretty unheard of (in my lifetime anyway ). Cool stuff. Tributaries and slower portions have sporadic ice as well. Crazy!! Nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Really, not a bad buildup for November 19. It was completely iced over for 2.5 months last winter, so it's nice to see old friends again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I'm wondering if this signifies a lot of what we saw last year: Signs of a warm-up close but never quite happening or never lasting more than a brief period of time. God, I hope not. I'd much rather have it the other way around. Signs of a cold snap that never really happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 12z runs of Euro and GFS go in opposite directions after this weekend due to how they handle the area of high pressure building off the west coast. The GFS brings it east into western US and creates a massive ridge out west and trough over the east by the middle of the week. Euro keeps this high just offshore which allows for another high to dive southward through central US (again) and allows for a wave of energy to move northeast along a nearly stationary cold front, producing a potential snow threat. It will be interesting to see how these two models handle this high over the next few runs. 0z Euro had a stronger low develop with front to pull the warm air north and look more like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 ...ERIE COUNTY... GARDENVILLE 60.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER WEST SENECA 57.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER ELMA 51.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER ORCHARD PARK 48.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 SSW BLASDELL 44.0 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS 2 N LANCASTER 21.0 1040 PM 11/18 SOCIAL MEDIA SLOAN 16.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER NY BUFFALO INTL ARPT 6.2 650 AM 11/19 ASOS CLARENCE 6.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER KENMORE 3.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER TONAWANDA 0.9 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS EAST AMHERST 0.8 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS I would love to know what the trained spotters used to measure the 48"+ amounts... rates have been so heavy you would have to clear off a snow board at least every hour From what I have been reading from Buffaloweather posts he has been doing 6 hour measurements to meet NWS standards. He currently figures he has got 86.5" from all the LES this week. That's an unreal amount!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 From what I have been reading from Buffaloweather posts he has been doing 6 hour measurements to meet NWS standards. He currently figures he has got 86.5" from all the LES this week. That's an unreal amount!!! I took his post as saying he didnt measure every 6 hrs? See post below Either way it a crazy amount of snow...My total for last year was 56" and i though that was a good winter -lol. dendrite, on 20 Nov 2014 - 4:51 PM, said: Jesus. Are you only measuring every 2hrs or are you clearing too? If the clearing is every 6hrs+ then that's just wild. Clearing every 2 would nullify your total and cause quite a bit of inflation. Obviously you know that though. Can you make a depth OTG measurement at all or is it near impossible right now? Actually, my totals would be more inflated if I took them every 6 hours due to blowing and drifting. I will try to grab a depth measurement when the band drifts south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I took his post as saying he didnt measure every 6 hrs? See post below Either way it a crazy amount of snow...My total for last year was 56" and i though that was a good winter -lol. dendrite, on 20 Nov 2014 - 4:51 PM, said: Actually, my totals would be more inflated if I took them every 6 hours due to blowing and drifting. I will try to grab a depth measurement when the band drifts south. I just don't know how you'd even go about trying to accurately measure an extreme event like that one, especially when things probably went beyond the "ridiculous" threshold 2 or 3 feet ago in some places. You'll get a more inflated snow total if you do it every couple hours, but the standard protocol 6hr as he said probably doesn't help if it's blowing and drifting around. Then there's clearing the snowboard and that has to be quite a chore with 4-5 feet already on the ground. It's just an unbelieveable event. Without being much of an expert on the nuances of LES, I kind of have the opinion that having such an early season significant cold shot delivered without downstream blocking in place was a big factor. Highly anomalous cold this early is usually brought in via a major amplification and the typical Greenland block in place. That would promote more of a NW flow and our PA snow belts in the crosshairs. Obviously, it wouldn't have delivered 6 feet of snow in that setup (shorter lake fetch off Erie) but a Huron connection would have likely sent accumulating snows deep into the central counties. Since there wasn't major Greenland ridging, but definitely a sizeable western one via the +PNA.. the cold was delivered on more of a WSW flow. Hence the result of early Jan caliber cold flowing over the full lengths of mid-late November warm Erie and Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 From what I have been reading from Buffaloweather posts he has been doing 6 hour measurements to meet NWS standards. He currently figures he has got 86.5" from all the LES this week. That's an unreal amount!!! It seems as if Buffaloweather was doing 1-2 hour measurements as well as 6 hour just to make sure drifting wasn't impacting the 6 hour totals. I would love to know what the liquid equivalent in core samples would be since ratios are likely ridiculously high. Pictures today and this weekend will not do that area justice because I wouldnt be surprised to see depths like that compact at least by 2 feet. With depths as great as some of those areas have, I think the models may be forecasting way too warm of temps there Sat, Sun, Mon by initialization underpredicting snow depth and liquid equivalent values based on resolution. I just dont see there being significant melting that is being hyped up right now. The further compacting will cause an illusion of melting, but it will likely be a smaller depth with increased liquid content. This would make it heavier and harder to shovel/plow as well as continue to cause roof collapses/etc. Also insane is how this week has dropped Lake Erie's average surface temperatures by about 1 degree per day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It seems as if Buffaloweather was doing 1-2 hour measurements as well as 6 hour just to make sure drifting wasn't impacting the 6 hour totals. I would love to know what the liquid equivalent in core samples would be since ratios are likely ridiculously high. Pictures today and this weekend will not do that area justice because I wouldnt be surprised to see depths like that compact at least by 2 feet. With depths as great as some of those areas have, I think the models may be forecasting way too warm of temps there Sat, Sun, Mon by initialization underpredicting snow depth and liquid equivalent values based on resolution. I just dont see there being significant melting that is being hyped up right now. The further compacting will cause an illusion of melting, but it will likely be a smaller depth with increased liquid content. This would make it heavier and harder to shovel/plow as well as continue to cause roof collapses/etc. Also insane is how this week has dropped Lake Erie's average surface temperatures by about 1 degree per day. holy chit, thats crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vogan Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Snowfall normals: Average vs Mean Observing the amazing LES snow event in Buffalo this week got me thinking about snowfall here in the LSV. Are annual snowfall normals for any given location calculated as averages or means? As far as I know the normal annual snowfall for a given location is an average over a given number of years. Using the snowfall data from the Millersville University Weather Information Center from the last 50 winters I came up with an annual average of 26.9” of snow per year for Millersville. This compares very closely with historical snowfall data for Ephrata that I have been able to obtain. I use 26.5” for my normal average seasonal snowfall. Like many on this site I am admittedly a snow weenie. I set my minimum annual expectation at the climate normal and go up from there. I was a bit surprised when I saw the number of winters that met or exceeded 26.9” was only 18 out of 50 winters. Only 36% of the time does the annual snowfall for this area reach the average. In fact the mean snowfall is 22.5” Half of the last 50 years met or exceeded this mark. I guess I need to reset my expectations…nah that will never happen. An interesting side note that is probably stating the obvious. For the LSV to achieve above average snowfall the most important things are cold air, cold air and more cold air. The 18 years at Millersville that exceeded normal snowfall had a seasonal (Dec-Mar) temperature anomaly of -2º. We get more than enough precipitation here during the winter months; we just need to get and keep the cold air here more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 First single digit night of the early winter, complete with a tripped low tire pressure light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Also, the 0z Euro was interesting for Thanksgiving Eve. It's been hinting at an attempted coastal storm the last couple runs but this one is in pretty close, running a low from off the Outer Banks into southeastern Mass (992mb). Sparing the finer details..this delivered a pretty sizeable snow event to the eastern half of PA. The GFS was predictably out to sea and southeast with this as well as the Canadian. There looked to potentially be a bit of support from the Euro ensembles for the Euro op (can't see individual members) but the mean was still generally southeast towards the GFS op and ensemble. Could be something to keep an eye on while we finally get our brief warm up and GLC Sun/Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Interesting. While I'm sure there are some other cold spots, of all the OFFICIAL current observations listed on the CTP, only Clearfield is colder than I am currently. They are 8 degrees and I am 12 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I had a low of 11 which is the coldest ive seen so far in November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Mag I had a low tire pressure light come on the other morning. Thanks for your thoughts on the weather. Had 13 degrees for the low this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Looks like it may be time to begin hitting refresh every 10 minutes for the next 94 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 There appears to be several traffic accidents on I-99 due to the freezing rain this afternoon near the State College area. Got a call from my mom who is stuck in traffic, and also caught this shot near the Atherton Street exit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Looks like it may be time to begin hitting refresh every 10 minutes for the next 94 hours. lol... True though, it seems as if the signal is increasing for a pre-Thanksgiving thump for someone on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 There appears to be several traffic accidents on I-99 due to the freezing rain this afternoon near the State College area. Got a call from my mom who is stuck in traffic, and also caught this shot near the Atherton Street exit. StateCollege.png Roads are horrible here...wrecks all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 lol... True though, it seems as if the signal is increasing for a pre-Thanksgiving thump for someone on Wednesday. Could be interesting, today's Euro not backing off what it had last night.. in fact looking like it sends snows deeper into PA (3 inch line getting near a Latrobe to Indiana line and the 6 inch line running just east of an AOO to UNV line and riding up through IPT and west of BGM). GFS was closer today as well but still east of our area largely. Basically, we're in a familiar spot at a familiar range when it comes to these things. Will say that for a change I like the positioning of the 500 ridge out west.. as a 500 ridge axis through Boise, ID is generally a good benchmark for central PA and in fact GFS and Euro are progging slightly west of that currently. If we can get enough of a phase I think we can get everyone involved. Still alot of time, but if anyone has travel plans you'll definitely want to watch how this evolves the next couple days.. as the Euro solution would be a major east coast snowstorm for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 My mom's still stuck in the same place on I-99 as she was at 1:30 this afternoon (just past the Port Matilda exit). Was saying the troopers walking on the road were having trouble standing. Must have been one heck of an ice over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Could be interesting, today's Euro not backing off what it had last night.. in fact looking like it sends snows deeper into PA (3 inch line getting near a Latrobe to Indiana line and the 6 inch line running just east of an AOO to UNV line and riding up through IPT and west of BGM). GFS was closer today as well but still east of our area largely. Basically, we're in a familiar spot at a familiar range when it comes to these things. Will say that for a change I like the positioning of the 500 ridge out west.. as a 500 ridge axis through Boise, ID is generally a good benchmark for central PA and in fact GFS and Euro are progging slightly west of that currently. If we can get enough of a phase I think we can get everyone involved. Still alot of time, but if anyone has travel plans you'll definitely want to watch how this evolves the next couple days.. as the Euro solution would be a major east coast snowstorm for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. From Dt's Facebook page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 I do not see how this turns out to be a significant snow event for outside the mountains. Several reasons why: 1.) Unseasonably warm antecedent air mass 2.) The setup at 500mb is not conducive for a significant east coast snow...the trough is positively tilted on the GFS/EURO/UKMET ensembles. 3.) Marginal airmass during the the storm...below 1,000 ft elevation you are waiting for the cold air. 5.) Climo argues against a big snow along I-95 this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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