sauss06 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It was colder, temps started in the 20's, then things did warm for a while but crashed again as the deform banding came through. This will be warmer, there is really no true cold air around until well after the storm but it looks just cold enough as long as rates are decent. i thought so. I just tried to explain this to a co-worker that the 10:1 will not apply here. But they don't listen. They're all reading S&S and easternpa weather at lunch. Their planing for 10-12" i can't change the opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 i can't change the opinion Don't. Let Scheisskopf and Scheisskopf lead them astray. Then when they come in bitching about how weathermen are always wrong, you can laugh at them and call them stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 first look seems to have 12z Euro slightly quicker and a couple miles east of 0z when near Jersey coast... still wetter than GFS/NAM/etc but not quite at level from this weekend... I-95 folks will say it is a great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Despite the east move, the precip is still nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hey psuhoffman, or anyone else, what is the story with the 12z Euro in Eastern PA. AVP, IPT, MPO etc...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z EURO has no major changes...it's settling in on a nice rain -> paste bomb for the eastern 1/3 to 1/2 of PA. Would be high end advisory criteria, low end warning snows above 700 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hey psuhoffman, or anyone else, what is the story with the 12z Euro in Eastern PA. AVP, IPT, MPO etc...... AVP - ~.75" IPT - ~.45" MPO - ~.90" MDT - ~.80" UNV - ~.35" LNS - ~.95" PHL - ~1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hey psuhoffman, or anyone else, what is the story with the 12z Euro in Eastern PA. AVP, IPT, MPO etc...... AVP about .8 Poconos about 1 IPT about .5 MDT about .8 LNS about .9 Track is still fine, minor jog east but the bigger deal is its more progressive like the GFS and GGEM only not as extreme, we get into the good precip shield it just is in and out in 8 hours or so. Thats the biggest difference to me on this run, its sped up and that cuts down on precip a bit over our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 dropping by to see if anyone has any thoughts for the MD/PA border (I'm afraid to ask in the MA forum lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 AVP - ~.75" IPT - ~.45" MPO - ~.90" MDT - ~.80" UNV - ~.35" LNS - ~.95" PHL - ~1" AVP about .8 Poconos about 1 IPT about .5 MDT about .8 LNS about .9 Track is still fine, minor jog east but the bigger deal is its more progressive like the GFS and GGEM only not as extreme, we get into the good precip shield it just is in and out in 8 hours or so. Thats the biggest difference to me on this run, its sped up and that cuts down on precip a bit over our area. Thank you for the information........thinking AVP probably gets 5-9 inches, a warning criteria snowfall.....though I'm not so sure about ratios, 10:1? 8:1? 6:1? lower..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 dropping by to see if anyone has any thoughts for the MD/PA border (I'm afraid to ask in the MA forum lol) you look to be right around the 1" mark from 12z Euro qpf output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Don't worry, the storms will start missing to the SE again soon. Good call. At least it looks like we'll have a decent shot at 1-3" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 dropping by to see if anyone has any thoughts for the MD/PA border (I'm afraid to ask in the MA forum lol) I think we are in a good location to get at least a decent event, say 3-5". More then that is going to depend on meso scale features. Today the trend in a lot of the models is to be very progressive and sort of race things in and out. UK being the one exception. Even the euro kind of jumped on that trend. If that is correct the potential for something really big is kind of limited. I am still not sold. The models are having issues right now resolving the play between the two vorts. That can be tricky and the UK and older versions of the op euro might still be correct but I would lean more conservative right now. I would consider 4" a win in November anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think we are in a good location to get at least a decent event, say 3-5". More then that is going to depend on meso scale features. Today the trend in a lot of the models is to be very progressive and sort of race things in and out. UK being the one exception. Even the euro kind of jumped on that trend. If that is correct the potential for something really big is kind of limited. I am still not sold. The models are having issues right now resolving the play between the two vorts. That can be tricky and the UK and older versions of the op euro might still be correct but I would lean more conservative right now. I would consider 4" a win in November anyways. Thanks! Hell, I'll take 2" and call it a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looking like 1 to 3ish for the Port. I'm waiting for a good mid-December type bowling ball event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Debating whether I want to get "sick" Wednesday and stay home. *cough* *cough* Man this flu is coming on fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro gives about a 2-4" MDT deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 My boss just came in and told us to take our time before we come in on Wednesday. OR we can work from at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 In terms of today, we got a record high as we touched 70. It obviously can't possibly snow 48 hours after a record high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 fwiw... This is not nearly as bad as it has been recently... but just from 12z run this morning GFS was already too warm for 18z temps today from western Ohio back to Minnesota in the air mass that is moving in here tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 $20 says CTP pulls the trigger for the winter storm watch by 6:00 pm. PHI and LWX just issued their watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 $20 says CTP pulls the trigger for the winter storm watch by 6:00 pm. PHI and LWX just issued their watches. BGM just spread theirs out into the WB/Scranton area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I say NWS pulls trigger for SE 1/4 of CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Might be smart for CTP to wait it out as it looks like all but 1/4 of its CWA is potentially advisory level at-best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Just mowed the yard to rid of last fallen leaves. then see wsw for the area just posted by nws. From lawn mower to snow blower in two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Winter storm watches out. 4-8" by them seems like a fair call at this point for most of the Susquehanna Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Might be smart for CTP to wait it out as it looks like all but 1/4 of its CWA is potentially advisory level at-best. Agreed. I think Schuylkill, Lebanon, Lancaster and York fair the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Running with da' Euro. Still think that Watch area is way to large, however always a chance to cut SE 1/4 into warning tmrw aftn and make the rest SPS or Advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Please tell me somebody took 20 bucks from Joe. lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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