anotherman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looking forward to it...Noss Road and Old Joseph Road should be fun to drive in the Subaru! Haha. The roads around here are always horrific. I can't imagine how bad Joseph will be. Noss is one of the worst roads I've ever driven on in the snow. I'll never forget what it was like after the twin February blizzards in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Things that I am seeing that are already driving me crazy with some of the local media are: 1) Saying warmer water over ocean will pull warmer air in to cause temperature issues. That is fine for near the coast but none of the models are far enough west right now for it to be the case for Susq Valley where they were discussing. 2) Stating that the event will occur during daytime and questioning if the temperatures will be cold enough as a result. Peak sun angle is just under 29 degrees, meaning minimal impact. 3) Forecast highs for Wednesday based on MOS data. MOS errors for both NAM and GFS have been about as bad as I have ever seen them across the US the past few weeks with the air masses that have been quite a bit off of normal temperatures. This could mean that current forecast temps for Wednesday could be factoring in normal highs and lows where actuals could very well end up a few degrees either warmer or colder. Climo is not on our side which is something to keep in mind despite what the Euro seems locked in on making this too easy to swing either way as boom or bust. Only once has there even been 1"+ of snow in Harrisburg on November 26th on record! (1898 - 2.8") From what I have been reading this morning it seems our local news is more concerned about describing every possible way it won't snow versus trying to actually give people ample warning to make other travel arrangements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm excited for the possibility the ground will be white for the first day of Deer. i know i'm old, but i cant remember the last that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Things that I am seeing that are already driving me crazy with some of the local media are: 1) Saying warmer water over ocean will pull warmer air in to cause temperature issues. That is fine for near the coast but none of the models are far enough west right now for it to be the case for Susq Valley where they were discussing. 2) Stating that the event will occur during daytime and questioning if the temperatures will be cold enough as a result. Peak sun angle is just under 29 degrees, meaning minimal impact. 3) Forecast highs for Wednesday based on MOS data. MOS errors for both NAM and GFS have been about as bad as I have ever seen them across the US the past few weeks with the air masses that have been quite a bit off of normal temperatures. This could mean that current forecast temps for Wednesday could be factoring in normal highs and lows where actuals could very well end up a few degrees either warmer or colder. Climo is not on our side which is something to keep in mind despite what the Euro seems locked in on making this too easy to swing either way as boom or bust. Only once has there even been 1"+ of snow in Harrisburg on November 26th on record! (1898 - 2.8") i miss the annual speach from Jamie O about this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm excited for the possibility the ground will be white for the first day of Deer. i know i'm old, but i cant remember the last that happened. Your hunting in the wrong places bud...last 2 years have been white in Tioga... quite frankly, its been more white than not. take a road trip north and you'll be happy. Good luck. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Your hunting in the wrong places bud...last 2 years have been white in Tioga... quite frankly, its been more white than not. take a road trip north and you'll be happy. Good luck. Nut ive hunted on the same private property down here in the "flat Lands" for about 35 years. only hunted north 2-3 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Already around 65. Do I hear 70 today? EDIT: AVP already 68, just one degree from the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Tbh, I'm enjoying this weather quite a bit. 70 feels so dang nice after last week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 CTP back on the snow bandwagon for me ... Wednesday 70% Precip. Periods of snow. Temps nearly steady in the mid 30s. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70%. 5 to 8 inches of snow expected. Wednesday Night 50% Precip. Mainly cloudy with snow showers around before midnight. Low 31F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 50%. About one inch of snow expected. GFS came in with less precip to the west, for whatever that's worth. Mets over in the MA thread saying it's very progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS is dry and progressive. High bust potential with this...climo and recent trends in NAM/GFS really lower confidence in anything other than conversational snow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 In November I keep my expectation level at happy to see flakes. January is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Winds are howling...gusts between 35 and 40 so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yea Haz, we've actually had a few small limbs come down BC of it. Leaves are scattering again too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 CTP back on the snow bandwagon for me ... GFS came in with less precip to the west, for whatever that's worth. Mets over in the MA thread saying it's very progressive. Yet it has the coastal system almost 4 mb stronger from 0z run... to me the set up looks a little better on this run so I don't think qpf should be indicator for if a good run or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Oh boi, some of the usual suspects cough cough S&S has their cult like followers all fired up......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Oh boi, some of the usual suspects cough cough S&S has their cult like followers all fired up......... Lol I saw that, they are true hypemasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Oh boi, some of the usual suspects cough cough S&S has their cult like followers all fired up......... God I wish they hadn't dropped the banhammer on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 ***ENTERTAINMENT VALUE ONLY*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 ***ENTERTAINMENT VALUE ONLY*** All Models now appear to agree on this storm. Yes some news outlets keep saying the track can change. Big deal. That can happen an hour before. That said let's get to it.With almost all models on board confidence is now high.Timing may be a tad earlier than thought. Start time looks to be Early Wednesday morning rather than late morning.From eastern Lancaster to Baltimore to DC some mixing is likely but accumulations will still happen.Watches will likely be issued in the next 24 hours.Warning Criteria will likely be met in most areas.Our first call will be adjusted slightly but not by much at all.Amounts From York County PA as well as North and South of York remain the same at this time. May adjust total down by a couple inches from Lancaster to DC to take into acct mixing. We will determine this tonight.Overall first call of widespread 6-10" looks great as of right now and we will stay on top of things 24/7.#Brad Aviation and Winter Forecaster ### Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 So, I see their 14-year-old graphic artist hasn't gotten any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yet it has the coastal system almost 4 mb stronger from 0z run... to me the set up looks a little better on this run so I don't think qpf should be indicator for if a good run or not. Didn't the GFS have major qpf issues in that March storm last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Didn't the GFS have major qpf issues in that March storm last year? Yes. The GFS really struggles with southern stream systems and QPF amounts. The Euro is probably the best at figuring out this characteristic, but pretty much every model tends to under-do precip with a Gulf connection. Best example of this was the 02/13-14/2013 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS is dry and progressive. High bust potential with this...climo and recent trends in NAM/GFS really lower confidence in anything other than conversational snow at this point. gfs is fine. Track is good and deform band is right over us. It's just doing its typical too dry on the west side nonsense it does all the time with coastals. Remember last feb 13. Kept doing the same thing. Showing like .5 qpf for places that got 10"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vogan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 gfs is fine. Track is good and deform band is right over us. It's just doing its typical too dry on the west side nonsense it does all the time with coastals. Remember last feb 13. Kept doing the same thing. Showing like .5 qpf for places that got 10"+ The Euro did really well with the qpf for the LSV for the 2/13 storm. The GFS had me at .5" or less. I ended up with 1.57" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yes. The GFS really struggles with southern stream systems and QPF amounts. The Euro is probably the best at figuring out this characteristic, but pretty much every model tends to under-do precip with a Gulf connection. Best example of this was the 02/13-14/2013 storm I think you mean 2014 but yea exactly all of this X1000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 UK is west of the BM fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think you mean 2014 but yea exactly all of this X1000 Whoops My bad Yeah 2014 haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Whoops My bad Yeah 2014 haha the models are much more useful if you know what their bias and faults are and are able to account for them and know what details to disregard and what to focus on. For instance the Euro tends to leave energy behind in the SW and drag its heels with troughs and sometimes over amp systems a bit. GFS has issues with feedback at times in developing coastals and often grossly under does the CCB and Deform precip in a southern stream miller a system. The NAM has a very limited range and should only be used to predict what happened 6 hours ago. If you take their issues into account each is useful its its own way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That storm you speak of, Feb 2014, wasn't colder then what they prog for this event? We also had snow already on the ground too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That storm you speak of, Feb 2014, wasn't colder then what they prog for this event? We also had snow already on the ground too. It was colder, temps started in the 20's, then things did warm for a while but crashed again as the deform banding came through. This will be warmer, there is really no true cold air around until well after the storm but it looks just cold enough as long as rates are decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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