NortheastPAWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Well, let's hope for the best tomorrow, and no east trend most importantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Cambria and Somerset Counties in the southwestern part of the CTP CWA have been added to the winter storm watch area for 4-7". Rest of the watch area unchanged and still 4-8. Thanks.....I am just totally not sure what to expect around AVP.......2 inches or 10 inches, anyone's guess I guess I really think you guys will do fine in that area. I'm more concerned about the JST/AOO/UNV/IPT corridor, where it seems the differences in track east or west would probably make or break the event either delivering a minor snowfall vs a high end advisory to low warning snowfall. There's no downstream blocking or high pressure in place to shunt this storm eastward and give NE PA a screw zone via dry air subsidence or anything like that. This is going to be a loaded storm right out of the Gulf thats going to shoot right up the coast and deliver a consistent swath of snow on its cold side. At this point, it would take a marked shift eastward to take the Sus Valley and NE PA out of at least advisory level snows.. and the overnight suite has finally started to solidify things in supporting decent snows in central and eastern PA. Euro ensemble mean supported the Euro op and the 03 SREFS came in wetter. 6z NAM came in very wet, featuring at least an inch of QPF for all of PA at and east of Johnstown to NW of Scranton line (sharp cutoff in the NW as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Never Forget... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 awesome graphic............ my final call 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Cambria and Somerset Counties in the southwestern part of the CTP CWA have been added to the winter storm watch area for 4-7". Rest of the watch area unchanged and still 4-8. I really think you guys will do fine in that area. I'm more concerned about the JST/AOO/UNV/IPT corridor, where it seems the differences in track east or west would probably make or break the event either delivering a minor snowfall vs a high end advisory to low warning snowfall. There's no downstream blocking or high pressure in place to shunt this storm eastward and give NE PA a screw zone via dry air subsidence or anything like that. This is going to be a loaded storm right out of the Gulf thats going to shoot right up the coast and deliver a consistent swath of snow on its cold side. At this point, it would take a marked shift eastward to take the Sus Valley and NE PA out of at least advisory level snows.. and the overnight suite has finally started to solidify things in supporting decent snows in central and eastern PA. Euro ensemble mean supported the Euro op and the 03 SREFS came in wetter. 6z NAM came in very wet, featuring at least an inch of QPF for all of PA at and east of Johnstown to NW of Scranton line (sharp cutoff in the NW as well). Thanks MAG....your insight is awesome. Just hoping for some nice sledding time with my nieces and nephews.....and no dreaded NEPA screw zone......thanks for all of the analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 6z Nam: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Let's get that high temp down a bit... Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 37. Northeast wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 http://www.weather.gov/bgm/briefingStormTotalSnow we are in the 6-10 areas. it would be a nice start to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 12z NAM is a bomb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 One thing I have noticed that may be worth keeping an eye on is how fast dew point temperatures fell across the state overnight and how low they have fallen. To me it looks as if the models may be underestimating just how dry this colder air mass is and how quickly it is pushing east. If these values fall into the 20s today I would think that when this event starts we may see temperatures closer to the freezing mark than the mid 30s that some model output is currently indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Hi-Res NAM shifts the shield to the NW. Quite an area-wide heavy snowfall it's predicting. IMO, based on NAM, Euro, and Euro Ensembles, I'd issue warnings this afternoon rather than advisories throughout the area: 1) First significant event of the year, 2) Busiest travel day of the year (even if we don't hit 6" here in State College or whatever the criteria is, people from outside the area who are used to a lot less snow may be passing through), 3) I'd say odds are 2 in 5 that we hit warning criteria anyway. I see this as a better safe than sorry situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 One thing I have noticed that may be worth keeping an eye on is how fast dew point temperatures fell across the state overnight and how low they have fallen. To me it looks as if the models may be underestimating just how dry this colder air mass is and how quickly it is pushing east. If these values fall into the 20s today I would think that when this event starts we may see temperatures closer to the freezing mark than the mid 30s that some model output is currently indicating. That is very important...the Jan 2011 / Oct 2011 storms were a boom for certain areas because the dry air was underestimated by the models just 24 hours prior. Also, I'd love to manage cloudy skies until 4:00 pm or so then radiate for about 5 hours...but that seems like a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 That is very important...the Jan 2011 / Oct 2011 storms were a boom for certain areas because the dry air was underestimated by the models just 24 hours prior. Also, I'd love to manage cloudy skies until 4:00 pm or so then radiate for about 5 hours...but that seems like a long shot. Yea I was just thinking the same thing where we may need a few hours of clear skies just after sunset tonight to help temps drop a bit. While the dry air may help, the trend for an early AM arrival before the colder temps really sets in to the southern and eastern most area may be a concern. The warmer model runs also seem to have the lower precip rates where the colder ones have heavier rates. Model output temperatures are taken into consideration for forecasting too much sometimes rather than assessing why the model is predicting that value. I really can see this going either way as a huge boom or a huge bust that will be interesteing to track regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 LWX and PHI go with warnings...CTP should follow with the next 6 hours. Probably stick with the 4" - 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 LWX and PHI go with warnings...CTP should follow with the next 6 hours. Probably stick with the 4" - 8". What is the thinking for BGM and their NEPA counties, when do they pull the trigger and for what amount......I am thinking soonish and probably like 6-10 in Poconos and 4-8 other areas...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 What is the thinking for BGM and their NEPA counties, when do they pull the trigger and for what amount......I am thinking soonish and probably like 6-10 in Poconos and 4-8 other areas...... BGM is always about 6 hours behind everyone else. I would guess they would go with warnings and advisories at the 4:00 pm updates.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Some serious weenie suicide planning going on over in the MA thread. This storm, especially for the 95 corridor, is a highly volatile storm to try to bank on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Some serious weenie suicide planning going on over in the MA thread. This storm, especially for the 95 corridor, is a highly volatile storm to try to bank on. It should be an entertaining read...we seem to mostly avoid that in here, outside if the occasional Williamsport meltdown lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 My forecast for the day....the temps was suppose to be in the mid 40's currently at 53. Not sure if that is something to be concerned about or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It should be an entertaining read...we seem to mostly avoid that in here, outside if the occasional Williamsport meltdown lol. I will say, living in Virginia and being from NEPA....this forum is a whole lot more even keeled that the Mid Atlantic. It is definitely refreshing, sometimes I hesitate to post there just because of some of the personalities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 My forecast for the day....the temps was suppose to be in the mid 40's currently at 53. Not sure if that is something to be concerned about or not. I wouldnt be concerned yet... 0 C 850mb line is still slowly marching across PA so we really are not seeing the cold air pushing in just yet... now if you stay around 53 until about midnight then I would start to worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I will say, living in Virginia and being from NEPA....this forum is a whole lot more even keeled that the Mid Atlantic. It is definitely refreshing, sometimes I hesitate to post there just because of some of the personalities. Yeah, I've gone in before to ask questions in those thread, and phineas in particular attacked me for no reason. It gets to the point that I root for them to always be 36 and rain lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 For years this forum has lived with nearly all missing snow while PHL gets buried. The more and more it seems this will be a flip of that; they get rain and a good chunk of us get a nice snowfall. Time will tell - hope the Euro doesn't boost temps too much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 For years this forum has lived with nearly all missing snow while PHL gets buried. The more and more it seems this will be a flip of that; they get rain and a good chunk of us get a nice snowfall. Time will tell - hope the Euro doesn't boost temps too much! I really think the warm layer will be too shallow for much rain inland from the coastline. I could see it being wet flakes that barely accumulate if even at all in some areas south around DC and east toward the coast due to that shallow warm layer not cooling to freezing until too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 not much change in 12z Euro compared to 0z run through 36hr other than it looks like qpf numbers may come down slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sounds like the euro throws precip way further back into pa. Heard mentions that the .75 line is all the way out to state college . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Some serious weenie suicide planning going on over in the MA thread. This storm, especially for the 95 corridor, is a highly volatile storm to try to bank on. they've had plenty of snow and big storms over the past 5 years while we've been on the fringes. this may be a our season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I heard drier, but all speculation. Someone will give us the digits soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sounds like the euro throws precip way further back into pa. Heard mentions that the .75 line is all the way out to state college . I heard drier, but all speculation. Someone will give us the digits soon. same westward extent as 0z run and just drops qpf slightly in susq valley down through DC so of course some will say it is drier when qpf values may only be a tenth of an inch or so lower which at this stage really is not all that important. For whatever reason accuweather lags way behind so it takes a bit to get the text output data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Map posted puts MDT and AVP at .8 to .9 and IPT and UNV around .5 to .6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.