heavy_wx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 18z NAM: You can see how far NW it has significant (in fact quite elevated) 600 mb frontogenesis. That's probably a result of the stronger 250 mb wind speed gradient (vs. the 12z GFS for example) having a much stronger ageostrophic secondary circulation in the jet entrance region. It's quite a good look for central PA from UNV and southeast, but most likely way overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Re: clearing Sun's been shining here for a few hours. Very high whispy clouds to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I don't know why anyone around the DC area thought this was going to be a good storm for them. The writing was on the wall a few days ago about this being a back loaded event for everyone with no drilling HP to the north to help out. They live at the wrong latitude, combine that with UHI and they were destined for failure. I still think areas N&W of the major cities get snow and there will be one heck of gradient as you go. Your area and anyone above 650' will do decent to pretty good depending on high up you go. Here in SPA and CPA, we should be ok for most of us to change to snow quicker and accumulate for a few more hours compared to down south. I love a lot of those guys, but it's a snow storm in November. If anyone thought we'd all get hammered, I have some beach front property in Nebraska to sell them. I think ill be fine - 4" is my benchmark anything more than that is a bonus to me. will be at home all day to enjoy whatever happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 You can see how far NW it has significant (in fact quite elevated) 600 mb frontogenesis. That's probably a result of the stronger 250 mb wind speed gradient (vs. the 12z GFS for example) having a much stronger ageostrophic secondary circulation in the jet entrance region. It's quite a good look for central PA from UNV and southeast, but most likely way overdone. Ohhhh bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 You can see how far NW it has significant (in fact quite elevated) 600 mb frontogenesis. That's probably a result of the stronger 250 mb wind speed gradient (vs. the 12z GFS for example) having a much stronger ageostrophic secondary circulation in the jet entrance region. It's quite a good look for central PA from UNV and southeast, but most likely way overdone. Nice map heavy_wx. I'm not a fan of the NAM in these situations involving southern stream systems because the model has a propensity to overdo the magnitude of the UA features and makes it look a whole lot worse than what evolves. Grant it, I do like the NAM over the GFS in analyzing mesoscale properties because that's what it is intended for, but I think just amps up too quickly and gets everyone who doesn't look at the models too indepth, hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think ill be fine - 4" is my benchmark anything more than that is a bonus to me. will be at home all day to enjoy whatever happens. Sounds like a good day to me. Hot chocolate while watching the flakes fly is always a favorite of mine. I think 4" in your neck of the woods is do able. Enjoy the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Wow, this forum has lit up......love it, snow headed our way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ohhhh bummer. Well the 12z Euro had a more realistic depiction of these features and still had at least 0.5" QPF from UNV and southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Skies clearing up here at Millersville. Looking at satellite, looks like this area will have 3-4 hours of mostly clear skies to radiationally cool. The key will be the dew points dropping. Anything into the mid 20's is most preferable in order to increase the speed of wet bulbing once the precipitation arrives. As Eskimo Joe pointed out earlier, that will be a big factor on snow amounts for everyone. The lower the dews, the faster we can change over and accumulate. Observation time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looks like a great inland storm (for once it seems after these last few winters); enjoy everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Re: clearing Sun's been shining here for a few hours. Very high whispy clouds to the east. Oh yeah. I checked the vis sat and it looks promising for a period of clearing this eve. I've dropped down to 48 after a high of 53Edit : dew 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looks like a great inland storm (for once it seems after these last few winters); enjoy everyone! Are you back home for this one? If so enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Nice map heavy_wx. I'm not a fan of the NAM in these situations involving southern stream systems because the model has a propensity to overdo the magnitude of the UA features and makes it look a whole lot worse than what evolves. Grant it, I do like the NAM over the GFS in analyzing mesoscale properties because that's what it is intended for, but I think just amps up too quickly and gets everyone who doesn't look at the models too indepth, hopes up. It has been very inconsistent with this system (and I find many other cyclogenesis events as well...). The Euro and GFS are actually in fair agreement for a moderate snow event in central PA, with the 18z NAM a significant outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Congratulations everyone on cashing in on the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Congratulations everyone on cashing in on the storm. You trying to jinx us or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Are you back home for this one? If so enjoy! Yep! Headed home this evening. I will be sure to trek up to Blue Mountain and get some totals during the event. I could see 10" there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It has been very inconsistent with this system (and I find many other cyclogenesis events as well...). The Euro and GFS are actually in fair agreement for a moderate snow event in central PA, with the 18z NAM a significant outlier. I see that now. Not too bad I'd say. I'm partial to the Euro because it has done a pretty good job IMO of staying the course for a coastal system for a good 5 days now, so I'll believe it before any other model. It's down to a nowcast situation as our storm starts to ramp up to our south (radar actually looks very nice). Are you still up in Albany area for the storm? If so, what's the outlook for there? I haven't looked to much at anything up north for the storm except the western half of SNE which looks like the jackpot zone for the whole east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 You trying to jinx us or something? OOPs! Let me change that...their is no storm coming, I don't get what the fuss is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The school I teach/work at has closed for tomorrow. We were going to be let out early anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I see that now. Not too bad I'd say. I'm partial to the Euro because it has done a pretty good job IMO of staying the course for a coastal system for a good 5 days now, so I'll believe it before any other model. It's down to a nowcast situation as our storm starts to ramp up to our south (radar actually looks very nice). Are you still up in Albany area for the storm? If so, what's the outlook for there? I haven't looked to much at anything up north for the storm except the western half of SNE which looks like the jackpot zone for the whole east coast. Yeah, the Euro has been the most consistent for sure with this, at least for the northeast (I haven't focused much on the mid-atlantic region). I'm in Albany for this event and it looks like we'll do pretty well here with maybe 5-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 18z GFS better have been just an erratic run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yeah, the Euro has been the most consistent for sure with this, at least for the northeast (I haven't focused much on the mid-atlantic region). I'm in Albany for this event and it looks like we'll do pretty well here with maybe 5-8". Not bad. Nice event right before thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 43/28. Temp is tanking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 47/32 here, DP actually went up from 31 but the temp has dropped 4 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 18z GFS better have been just an erratic run What's wrong with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 18z gfs is good for northeast pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 18z GFS is solid both temps/precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 18z GFS better have been just an erratic run We dont live in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 What's wrong with it? 850-700 warm layer appeared to have gotten well into NEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Dropping like a rock here in southern York county. Down to 46. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.