canderson Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This sub forum probably doesn't want to look at the HI RES NAM. or lots of bridge jumping, SHARP CUTOFFWe live with sharp cutoffs for every storm, cutters/Millers/App Runners. It's our cross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Also, a friendly reminder that a) the NAM sucks and it especially sucks with Miller type systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The NAM? Are you people serious? Hey, what's the Japanese models showing? How about the awesome hi-res models we use from Nibiru? I heard that the prison planet that Sasquatches come from are showing some sa-weeeeet meso-banding the entire length of PA-641. Anyone confirm that? Bastardi saw this a month ago while he was fine-tuning the DeLorean and accidentally turned the time circuits on and set the flux capacitor to "flux". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM looks pretty meh. Mostly light-moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM looks pretty meh. Mostly light-moderate snow. Yeah.....looks like maybe 3-4 inches at best......not really sure what to think for AVP honestly......but in the back of my mind the NEPA Screw Zone is always present....burned so many times.......this is feeling that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM looks pretty meh. Mostly light-moderate snow. Seems like it gives Harrisbug about 4"-6", which is decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It looks great for northern poconos, north of scranton! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM looks pretty meh. Mostly light-moderate snow.Looks similar here along the 81 corridor as earlier, 5-7 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Very very off-topic and I'll only make reference once for sake of keeping from derailing conversation but if you guys aren't watching, you should have a look at what is going on in Ferguson right now. What a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GFS looks kinda dry again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Meh so what about the GFS...it was absolutely clueless for the 2/13 event. Pretty sure it had a statewide 1-3" 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Meh so what about the GFS...it was absolutely clueless for the 2/13 event. Pretty sure it had a statewide 1-3" 48 hours out. So what is your gut feeling for our part of PA...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Very very off-topic and I'll only make reference once for sake of keeping from derailing conversation but if you guys aren't watching, you should have a look at what is going on in Ferguson right now. What a mess. yep CNN an absolute disaster It is 56 at my house right now while looking at model data for a possible snow event... love it though it wont last much longer :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 So what is your gut feeling for our part of PA...... Gun to my head, 4-8" as of now. We'll see what happens with the UK/ECM tonight and the suites tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's the Euro/Ukie's storm. Dance with the one that brought ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I feel like this could be anything from 2 inches to 12 inches......i like 4-7 in Scranton if I had to guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 What is currently causing the trend towards a more progressive system today is the trailing vort. As the models have shown that to be stronger its dampening out the flow in front of it and the vort associated with the storm. If you look at the H5, that trailing vort digging down the back side is now looking like the dominant one. If it wasnt for this lead wave that probably had the potential to be the bigger storm. But the baroclinic zone will be shot to hell by the time it gets into position. Basically instead of one strong storm they are splitting the energy and we get a weaker/faster/dryer solution. The UK/NAM/Euro are still holding onto a stronger solution but cant deny the trend is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 UKMET shifted east. Still west of most guidance though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 We just cannot win. We could be progged for 10"+ within 24 hours and there would be a big jog to the east at the last second, leaving us with 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 UKMET shifted east. Still west of most guidance though. Not sure what area your saying but LSV including MDT looks about 6 plus inches there is no more east movement from earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Not sure what area your saying but LSV including MDT looks about 6 plus inches there is no more east movement from earlier runs. Its much further east compared to its 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Its much further east compared to its 12z run."Much" lol compared to where you are. I will take 6" snowfall in Nov at MDT any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The GFS ensemble mean has better precip into the central counties than the GFS op does, mean track is pretty much the same as the op. Not sure how the individual members panned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 European holds serve again precip wise and continues to be a bit west of the GFS. Bigger thing I see is a more expansive precip shield. Another big hit for the eastern half of PA. 0.1" line to Pittsburgh at hour 42 frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 European holds serve again precip wise and continues to be a bit west of the GFS. Bigger thing I see is a more expansive precip shield. Another big hit for the eastern half of PA. 0.1" line to Pittsburgh at hour 42 frame. You don't happen to have the rest of the contours in PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Euro kinda goes anemic this run. East and no big deal as far as pressure. about 1002 MB as it evens with NYC. not good for a nor'easter. We need the NAM or Ukie to verify at this point for anything interesting. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 You don't happen to have the rest of the contours in PA? Hour 42 - All of PA at and southeast of a Johnstown to IPT line is in 0.25-0.50. portions of the LSV up towards NE PA in a 0.5-0.75" range.. places like Reading, Lancaster, Allentown, up towards near Hazelton. Hour 48 - 2/3's of PA in at least 0.1-0.25". 0.25-0.50" roughly eastern third of PA (Scranton/WB, Allentown, close to Harrisburg, Reading, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Euro is great for much of PA. NEPA 6-10" Most of everyone else who has been borderline is still a nice 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Hour 42 - All of PA at and southeast of a Johnstown to IPT line is in 0.25-0.50. portions of the LSV up towards NE PA in a 0.5-0.75" range.. places like Reading, Lancaster, Allentown, up towards near Hazelton. Hour 48 - 2/3's of PA in at least 0.1-0.25". 0.25-0.50" roughly eastern third of PA (Scranton/WB, Allentown, close to Harrisburg, Reading, etc. Thanks.....I am just totally not sure what to expect around AVP.......2 inches or 10 inches, anyone's guess I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Euro qpf estimates Unv .55 Ipt .6 Avp 1.0 Mdt .95 Lns 1.0 Back to sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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