Jns2183

Man they blew up fast coming down Off the ridges Sent from my LML211BL using Tapatalk

It's hot Sent from my LML211BL using Tapatalk

Take a look a WV and W. PA on GOES. clearing already in dry slot. Biggest issue maybe eastern component to wind. Warm front seems to be progressing rapidly through Virginia with mid 60 dew points south of DC. Warm front passage along with dry slot should scour out boundary layer and allow for at least some broken sun during prime heating . Pro

Holy crap the meso on that thing had to be huge. Reminds me of some the more famous OKC area storms. What’s amazing is that very well might of been the strongest, largest, most violent one of the day. Out of all the other PA tornadoes, the second widest was the Kane tornado at 1000 yards. It was rated F4, on the ground for 29 miles (40 minutes) from 8:00 - 8:40 PM, injured 40, killed 4. Closely following in 3rd widest was the the Watsontown tornado at 910 yards. It too was rated F4, on the ground for 19 miles from 9:25 - 10:15 PM (50 minutes), injuring 60 and killing 6. Our F4 friend above was 3,330 yards (1.9 miles), at its widest, and spent almost all of ifs 69 mile journey from 7:35 to 9:00 pm (85 mins) at least a mile wide. So it was bar the widest, most long tracked tornado of the day in PA. I counted 23 tornados in CTP chart. And the intensity ratings for the group, especially being PA are about absurd as you expect. F0 - 2 F1 - 2 F2 - 5 F3 - 6 F4 - 7 F5 - 1 It appears from about 5pm through 9 pm there was just about at all times 3-4 tornados on the ground at the same times, 2-3 of which were F3 or above. Looks like 9 tornados tracked between 10-20 miles, 8 tornados had tracks of > 20 miles, 4 > 40 miles. I would love if there was a data warehouse that listed all PA tornados on record. I’m sure a bunch of these would be stacked near the top in track length. I also wonder if towns like Kane and Watsontown had in there history any tornado rated at least f3 occur within a 40 mile radius, that occurred not on that day. . Pro

So exactly what parameters do we even need in place for their to be a legit possibility of a 70 mile long tornado rated at F4 and I believe 1-2 miles wide for the majority of its track to blaze across the mountains west to East laughing at everyone lulled into complacency at seeing countless squall line poop, puke, and decapitate themselves on the same track? Exactly how many times have we seen parameters that at least roughly equal that days ones for our area throughout the entire period where it’s possible to compare? Surely this had to be some PSU MET PhD dissertation or research project in the last 30+ years. Whose got access to PSU library that can check? . Pro

I understand the parameters are pretty out there, but that statement feels more in line with “if you see sun before noon, say hello, you are now in Wheatland, Pennsylvania; it’s may 31st, 1985, enjoy the unique clouds on offer today”. . Pro

Is there a table or spreadsheet that has new cases, total cases, deaths, recovery for each day the last 2-3 weeks for PA? . Pro

Although the Harrisburg WeatherStation smooth around some and it’s like from downtown Harrisburg over to the Middletown area I think the biggest issue which I do not have an idea of how big of an effect it would be would be the quality control of measurements and the method used. Aside from see below because it did not matter. After the 1960s those years owned 5 of top 10!snowiest winters and also #11 & #19 Hindsight being 20/20 I like to try to put myself in a position of what people would’ve thought back then and after the 1960s they had just experienced winters that ranked #1,2,3,7,10,11, & 19 to date. Going back another 3 years to include the winters of 57’-58’ & 59-60 you could include #24 & #25 on that list. So before the winter of 57’-58’ from the winter of 1889-1890 to through the winter of 1956-1957 years, there were 18 winters with at least 40” of snow. Basically 1 every 3.77 years. There were 5 winters over 50”, or 1 every 13.6 years. Over the next 13 years 8 winters had 40” or above to bring the total to 26 and the average down 17% to 1 every 3.12 years. Those 13 years also doubled the amount of winters over 50”, the total now being 10 and bringing the average down to 1 every 8 years. The average snowfall before 58’-59’ was 32.2”. The average after was 34.4”, a 6.8% jump in 13 years. . Pro

You certainly were right about June 1966. It was >=90. 14 days >=95. 6 days >=100. 1 day Average high 87.7 Average low 61.4 Mean 74.6 Departure 3.1 Having such a huge range in temperature daily, 26.3 vs average of 19 brings to mind dessert airmass and dry dry dry. Turns out we recorded only 0.07” for month. Driest June by 0.51” and3rd driest month ever . Pro

To add to that post, in the preceding 40 years MDT had only broken 40” 6 times, 50” 2 times, and not once over 51”. In the 40 years after MDT broke 40” 12 times 50” 8 times, 60” 5 times and 70” 4 times. I have a strong feeling when people talk about all the snow we “used “ to get they remember the winters of 1960-1961 through the winter of 1969-1970. That is easily the most insane 10 year stretch in all of the recorded weather data for snowfall at KMDT 1960 81.3” 1961. 51.6” 1962 50.5” 1963. 74.7” 1964 31.8” 1965 42.6” 1966 48.4” 1967 31.0” 1968 25.0” 1969 60.6” If you take the average seasonal snowfall to be 30.6” then 9/10 years were above normal. 6/10 were 150%+ of normal and 3/10 were almost 200% or above of normal. Hell, that decade averaged 49.75”, 163% of normal. What’s remarkable is there aren’t a lot of storms on the top 10, even top 20 list from that decade to what we might expect given our winters of the last 20 years and there penchant to either go big storm or torch. . Pro

I wrote this up while in the waiting room of the ER this evening so please forgive any small errors in calculation or typos but I think I got it right for the most part. The winter of 1960-1961 was truly insane in scope. An outlier in so many ways. Let me compare it to another insane outlier to give it a reference. From the start of records in 1889 through 2010 the greatest yearly precipitation total recorded was in 1972 of 59.27”. 2011 comes along and absolutely obliterates that record recorded 73.73”, 24.4% greater then 1972. Up until that winter the snowiest winter recorded was 1917-1918 55.3” (by the way, that winter now ranks #10. The 1960’s have #1 & #4, 1970’s have #5 & #6, 1980’s have #7, 1990’s have #2 & #3, the 2000’s have #8 & #9). The winter of 1960-1961 comes along with 81.7”, 47.7% greater then the previous record. So Think back to 2011 and imagine that instead of 73.73” of rain we got 87.57”. Also image 28 days straight of 10” of snow on the ground and a winter of 32 snow events > a trace. Below is an outline of that crazy winter. Enjoy. Winter of 1960-1961 (70 days of bliss) Month (Total Events, # of T, # >T, Total Amt “) October (1,0,0,0”) November (0,0,0,0”) December (11,4,7,22.1”) January (15,6,9,34”) February (11,4,7,18.7” March (9,3,6,4”) April (4,1,3,2.5”) Season 10/24/1960 - 4/18/1961 (176 days) Total events 52 Trace events 20 > Trace Events 32 Total snow 81.7” First trace of snow was recorded 10/24/1960. Another trace would not be recorded for 38 days, on 12/1/1960; while first snowfall greater then a trace wouldn’t happen for another 48 days. Average was At least a trace of snow every 3.38 days > Trace 5.5 days From 12/11/1960 - 4/18/1960 (128 days) Total events 49 Trace events 17 > Trace Events 32 Total snow 81.7” (2.55” per >T event) Average was At least a trace of snow every 2.61 days > Trace 4 days December - February (90 days of madness) Total Events: 35 (2.57 days) Trace Events: 14 > Trace Events 21 (4.28 days) Total snowfall 74.8” (3.51” per >T event) DECEMBER Since they measure snow depth 1st day of snow on the ground was recorded on 12/12/1960 - 9” (how 9”? The storm on 12/11 - 12/12 dropped 6.9” on 12/11 and 4.1” on 12/12) The average snow depth for the month was 4.5”, but remember the first 11 days there was no snow on the ground so the first time there was measurable snow on the ground to the end of December the average snow depth was 6.98” with a max of 11” on 12/21 and a min of 4” on 12/17-12/20 (it snowed twice totaling 1.6” during that 4 day stretch) Temperature (Actual, Avg, departure) Max (35.8, 41.3, -5.5) Min (15.4, 26.6, -11.2) Avg (25.6, 33.9, -8.3) Snowfall (22.1”, 5.1”) JANUARY Snow was on the ground for every day in January, with a trace being recorded only 1 day. Later that same day they would receive 7.2” of snow. The average snow depth for the month was 7.2” with the max of 20” on 1/20/1961 and a min of a T on 1/15/1961. From 1/15/1961 to 1/20/1961 it snowed on 4/6 days for 26.2”. Temperature (Actual, Avg, departure) Max (33.3, 37, -3.7) Min (16.8, 22.8, - 6) Avg (25.1, 29.9, -4.8) Snowfall (34.0”, 8.8”) Precipitation (3.46”, 2.88”) There was recorded precipitation greater than a trace on 9 days. On every single one of those 9 days measurable snowfall was recorded. Now it wasn’t totally perfect on New Year’s Day the temperature spiked to 41 and we received 0.86” of precipitation, only 0.8” was snow; but still technically 9/9 in chances. FEBRUARY The max snow depth was recorded on 2/4 of 20”. 6.1” and 6.3” had fallen on 2/3 and 2/4. The average snow depth for the month was a staggering 8.7” On 2/20/1961 only a T was recorded on the ground. For 34 consecutive days >T of snow was recorded on the ground. 2/27/1961 brought the first day since the morning of 12/11/1960 that 0” was recorded on the ground. 70 consecutive days of bliss. During that 70 days of magic (12/12/1960 - 2/19/1960) the average snowfall on the ground was 6.89”. From 1/15/1961 till 2/12/1961 was 29 days of pure snow insanity. It snowed 13 days and 49.4”. From 1/15/1961 till 2/4/1961, 21 days, it snowed 14 days, >T 10 days for 44.2”. From 1/19/1961 - 2/4/1961, 17 days it snowed at least a trace on 12 days, >T on 8 days for 37.2” (4.65” per event). Average seasonal snowfall then was 30.6”. FROM 1/19/1961 through 2/15/1961 (28 days) MDT recorded at least 10” on the ground with an average of 13.3” and a max of 20” on 1/20/1961 & 2/4/1961. On 1/19/1961 a max of 33 was recorded. The temperature would not get above freezing again until 2/4/1961 when a max of 36 was recorded. 15 days in between. Days with >10” on ground December 1 January 12 February 15 Total 28 Days with >6” on ground December 14 January 17 February 18 Total 49 Temperature (Actual, Avg, departure) Max (41.3, 40.7, 0.6) Min (25.8, 25.1, 0.7) Avg (33.6, 32.9, 0.7) Snowfall (18.7”, 10.5”) Precipitation (3.07”, 2.39”) 0.1”- 2”: 12, 7.8” 2”-4”: 1, 2.4” 4”-6”: 3, 14.4” 6”-8”: 5, 33.3” 8”-10”: 0,0” 10”-12”: 0,0” 12”+: 1, 13.1” SEASON 0.1”- 2”: 21, 14.3” 2”-4”: 1, 2.4” 4”-6”: 3, 14.4” 6”-8”: 5, 33.3” 8”-10”: 0,0” 10”-12”: 0,0” 12”+: 1, 13.1” . Pro

From the winter of 1889-1900 till 1959-1960 they had recorded only 3 winters with 50”+ with the largest of 55.3” in 1917-1918. Then comes the winter of 1960-1961, 81.3”. The next 2 years had winters of 51.6”, 50.5”, 74.7” There you go 4 winters in a row of 50”+ where there had been only 3 in the previous 60 years. Can you imagine the humbling experience it must have been to those that default to climo then? Your top 2 snowiest winters to date then crushing all previous winters easily. I’d say the beginning of the 1960’s was quite traumatic for meteorologists in this area. . Pro

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The 1900-1960 was horrible for snow in this area. The 60’s was just some anomaly. Just like in the last 20 years having so so many 12”+ events. . Pro

If anyone can pull charts or other data about the pattern that decade then do so and study it because it truly was like no decade in the 50 years before or after . Pro